Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Location: Barling, Essex
24 minutes ago, danm said:

2010. 

The only other time since where we had great potential in the models in early/mid December was in 2012, which all ended in tears....

I'm sure there was a year semi-recently that we had snow in October.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

image.thumb.png.88c7b9a3f5125442a62d3df73bd22912.png

The Warmth is pushing back in from the gulf stream.image.thumb.png.2abbf90ce3b3dcbdd622d1f610a51c6d.png

Before that though a hint of what could have been possible without the Jet Stream but Hot always Wins Over Cold.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

A significant shift south from the latest ICON which would suggest a more westward shift. Minimal snow/precips on it but as demonstrated earlier with the radar...ICON underplays precip amounts and intensity. 

image.thumb.png.6a08467f96c4347ef4e077aa9f271a52.pngimage.thumb.png.c1c3d73901d9dcf4a47341c925316b68.png
 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 Has Nick not seen the rainfall totals on GFS for his area? 

accprecip_20201203_12_144.jpg

Luckily I live on a hill so will avoid any flooding ! 

There should be lots of snow in the mountains but sadly the ski resorts aren’t likely to open until mid January . 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec = icon 

further east than before and light 

not the ec op’s finest hour on the short term as it ends up pretty much where the other ops have been for days 

Harmonie. Please save us. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec = icon 

further east than before and light 

not the ec op’s finest hour on the short term as it ends up pretty much where the other ops have been for days 

Like playing a striker in goal.. play to your strengths ecm is broad scale and leave the short term finer details to the models that are designed for jus that...but! Of course when it was showing 28cm yesterday it would have just been so very rude to not give it airing....

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec = icon 

further east than before and light 

not the ec op’s finest hour on the short term as it ends up pretty much where the other ops have been for days 

Indeed, a big climbdown from it, and looking at it's 18z vs the current radar returns, it looks pretty accurate (ironically) with it's current track.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Dunno if this will be enough straws to clutch at regarding the Harmonie tomorrow 

1ECF4377-9EB3-4A00-BC17-0DBA90728F9C.thumb.jpeg.e50c450c5a429c48782e90c8d7671607.jpeg

In seriousness though, is just seeing what happens on the day itself. Would personally say anyway, especially for Southern areas, any wintry weather before Christmas does tend to be a bonus.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T144 ECM.  Meto are “confidence is very low” from the 17th. They need to give some in here a call cause they’re confident it’s going to be.........

772E6125-93D5-4569-9940-B7B32DC8BA47.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Northern areas in firing line

 

Screenshot_20201203_182246_com.android.chrome.jpg

 

 

 

Screenshot_20201203_182325_com.android.chrome.jpg

Edited by Blessed Weather
Duplicate images removed.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T168:

E365C3A2-2FC4-4F05-9693-6910F93662BF.thumb.png.c49db881e896b04a4558b1060c2a8809.png

It will be interesting to see if that mess out NW of us gets together into a coherent low as it did on the GEM in the end, or whether it continues to disrupt and slides as the high pressure edges towards Scandi.  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

If the two lows in the Atlantic at 144 didn't phase I think we would be looking at a very nice chart at 168.

Better than GFS 12z that manages to keep them separate so something to watch for in the mid term maybe.

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Too progressive at the minute but wouldn't be surprised to see this modeled further west as we move to a more reliable time frame.

ECH1-192.thumb.png.0b7b09a9cd913c151d30581957ecc66b.pngECH1-216.thumb.png.b30ef62d8975df0d8035db5663abe53c.png

Nice little cold pool developing there too.

ECH0-192.thumb.png.b9a198e76ca9a873a63fb7aee9992f17.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240, yes vile for UK at the moment:

9A120818-ACC5-411F-8662-E01176150C4E.thumb.png.a0f55305cb3b0060f72926bbe9006110.png

As the winds are from the south, but notice that the depressions just can’t get past the UK as normal?  Would only require a bit more westward movement of the block before they start to go under, and then we would be in business.  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Hot off the press, the UKV 15z (the model runs 8 times a day).

Still a snow risk in the SE and East Anglia overnight and tomorrow morning, but the model not showing too much settling, beyond transient coverings over the hills (inc Kent in the couple of hours before this image). The hotspot tomorrow morning looks Southern Scotland, and (not surprisingly!) the Highlands. 

ukv-snow-depth.png

Here's an anim of how it's currently forecasting everything to play out. 

ukv-anim.gif

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240, yes vile for UK at the moment:

9A120818-ACC5-411F-8662-E01176150C4E.thumb.png.a0f55305cb3b0060f72926bbe9006110.png

As the winds are from the south, but notice that the depressions just can’t get past the UK as normal?  Would only require a bit more westward movement of the block before they start to go under, and then we would be in business.  

or eastward to make it even worse, that’s if it’s cold you want, it seems a few people in this darn tootin forum like cold..?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

ECM going for Atlantic push at 192rs while Russian high taking charge of Europe.

Some changes to take place for sure at that range,will the Atlantic win or Russian high

hold back the Atlantic.Very interesting to see who wins the battle.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...