Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, West is Best said:

No you're not and yes it is. Ludicrously so. I blame it on Covid, so it's understandable but in the end it's causing more pain.

I personally don't see any ramping up.  Just people discussing the output.  Obviously people are focusing on snow probabilities rather than anything else but I really don't see what the issue is here?

Just let people make their own minds up about the output surely?

[Always a red]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I personally don't see any ramping up.  Just people discussing the output.  Obviously people are focusing on snow probabilities rather than anything else but I really don't see what the issue is here?

Just let people make their own minds up about the output surely?

Took the words out of my mouth Kentish

 

[Skullzrulerz]

11 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Am I the only one who, personally, things this is being ramped up a bit too much? The most I am expecting is a bit of wet snow at best. certainly not expecting anything to settle. 
 

If it was 0 degrees or so, then yes, I’d be more excited. But it looks like it’ll just be a wet, cold end to the day. 

You're definitely right in that regard 

It is nice to have a bit of snowfall but unfortunately most will be on the wrong end of marginal even by going by how active this thread has been today per yesterday 

It's been the case people get excited over a one set of runs and then you're disappointed then you have a group of people "hyping" said runs

Hopefully once we got a cold pool in place we will be in a better position

[sheikhy]

50 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at the noticable accuracy of the HIRLAM ( people can check back it was always my favourite > I didnt know it had changed )

If ecm shows the same as harmonie then its game on!!!!imagine if it goes further west than the 00z!!just compared harmonie to current pressure observation from xc weather and they are identical!!!

Edited December 3, 2020 by sheikhy

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I personally don't see any ramping up.  Just people discussing the output.  Obviously people are focusing on snow probabilities rather than anything else but I really don't see what the issue is here?

Just let people make their own minds up about the output surely?

Well you’d think that going by the amount of ‘snow’ charts being posted for the south, were in for a pasting like 2010!

The fact that there aren’t any met office warnings any further south than Yorkshire tells you all you need to know.

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well you’d think that going by the amount of ‘snow’ charts being posted for the south, were in for a pasting like 2010!

The fact that there aren’t any met office warnings any further south than Yorkshire tells you all you need to know.

It doesn’t. It just means they don’t think there will be any disruption. Which is true. 
doesn’t mean anyone in the south won’t see flurries, they have a chance.

they don’t issue warnings for flurries!

[West is Best]

10 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I personally don't see any ramping up. 

There are multiple examples but here's just one: we keep being told how 'exciting' things look this year compared to others. There's nothing particularly out of the ordinary in the models so far. It's true that we're in a lull from the Atlantic battering but there is no extended blocking, no significant or consistent height rises over Greenland or Svalbard, no mid-Atlantic blocking. There is a bloody great high over Siberia where it always is    but to be frank the FI charts aren't all that tasty. We normally expect to see the GFS throw up some wild easterlies and deep cold pooling in FI (which never come to anything) but they're largely absent.

It's going to feel cold being on the polar side of the PFJ but we've been getting this a lot in recent winters.

I think a lot of people will settle for this over a stagnant HP because it seems to offer more hope, and I get that. 

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by West is Best

[captaincroc]

7 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I personally don't see any ramping up.  Just people discussing the output.  Obviously people are focusing on snow probabilities rather than anything else but I really don't see what the issue is here?

Just let people make their own minds up about the output surely?

I agree, we're just discussing the options.

I think sometimes the 'I don't know why people are ramping' posts are like speaking about someone behind their back but loud enough for them to hear. The 'ramping' was just discussing what the charts showed (e.g the 25cm depths etc...) as 'ridiculous' as they were they were there...so worth a discussion. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well you’d think that going by the amount of ‘snow’ charts being posted for the south, were in for a pasting like 2010!

The fact that there aren’t any met office warnings any further south than Yorkshire tells you all you need to know.

Well despite my username I live in Yorkshire and I am not expecting any of the white stuff here but hey if there is output showing snow for the South let people discuss it?

Its what we are all here for after all?

Let's see what ECM churns out in an hour or so

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, West is Best said:

If by 'interesting' you mean cold and wet, okay.

There's nothing particularly exciting or special in the current synoptics despite the attempts to make them seem so. Weather is coming in off the Atlantic, albeit not belting in just yet, we're on the north of the PFJ so it's going to feel cold and that's about it. Great for the Scottish ski resorts and if you stand on top of Cross Fell you should see the occasional snow but there's unlikely to be snow at low levels for most of England. There's almost no point at which England is under -5C 850 hPa and that's pretty crucial if you want to see snow falling, as I do.

Meanwhile it's going to blow a hoolie down the west coast tomorrow night.

 

At this stage hard to know how much cold will be over central/ west Europe in a week . So that was the proviso regarding any battleground scenario . The 850 value under -5 isn’t relevant to a battleground scenario as the flow ahead will normally in that instance be from the se or east with lower dew points , snow can fall with upper air values just under freezing in that scenario .

As for the shorter term I haven’t said much about that as it’s messy with insufficient upper cold to make things anything but marginal . Some might get lucky in heavier precip or higher elevations.

 

[West is Best]

Yep but that highlights another danger which is that when snowcasting people have a tendency to root out the most obscure and esoteric model charts they can find, which suddenly became the gold standard.

The ECM did show something more promising but it has backtracked. It's been very erratic of late. The GFS in FI is in my opinion next to useless. The UKMO performs well and I don't take much notice of anything beyond T144 these days. The Fax charts are always good value.

[captaincroc]

2 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Yep but that highlights another danger which is that when snowcasting people have a tendency to root out the most obscure and esoteric model charts they can find, which suddenly became the gold standard.

The ECM did show something more promising but it has backtracked. It's been very erratic of late. The GFS in FI is in my opinion next to useless. The UKMO performs well and I don't take much notice of anything beyond T144 these days. The Fax charts are always good value.

Hmm, I think the 25cm chart from actually from the ECM (correct me if wrong), hardly esoteric and obscure.  I love this forum but can we just have a discussion without a plethora of slightly condescending posts when the charts backtrack or change. Just let us enjoy our fun. 

Edited December 3, 2020 by captaincroc

[West is Best]

So here's the 12z UKMO at T144. This is not a set up that screams cold to me? The best thing about it, is that it's very early winter.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

Yep but that highlights another danger which is that when snowcasting people have a tendency to root out the most obscure and esoteric model charts they can find, which suddenly became the gold standard.

The ECM did show something more promising but it has backtracked. It's been very erratic of late. The GFS in FI is in my opinion next to useless. The UKMO performs well and I don't take much notice of anything beyond T144 these days. The Fax charts are always good value.

No , people switch from the coarse long range models, ECM GFS UKMO GEM, to more refined short range models as the ‘event’ comes into their range, that is all.  

This may seem odd to some because we haven’t got any snowy precipitation into that short range for ages!  So that’s why the models used might seem new.  

[Anthony Burden]

Met office forecast for London and southeast.Saturday to Monday relatively high uncertainty

but remaining cold with some rain or showers,but possibly turning dryer with frost .

I don’t think I can remember when met office did not know what would happen weather

wise in just a few days time in part of U.K.Is it me or is something going on that the charts are not

showing.

[Polar Maritime]

Some folk need to understand that this thread is to discuss the model outputs that be 6hr out or 2 weeks. Also if folk are looking for there 1st snowflake of the season using said models that's absolutely fine even if there are no METO warnings out for said areas.

Last but not least, Some people get excited some don't, That's fine but just let it be.. I've always found marginal snow events a little exiting, But I wouldn't expect everyone to be just because I am and visa/versa..

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Yep but that highlights another danger which is that when snowcasting people have a tendency to root out the most obscure and esoteric model charts they can find, which suddenly became the gold standard.

The ECM did show something more promising but it has backtracked. It's been very erratic of late. The GFS in FI is in my opinion next to useless. The UKMO performs well and I don't take much notice of anything beyond T144 these days. The Fax charts are always good value.

HIRLAM has always been the High res model of choice.> its just got a funky name now.

I think theres a lot being taken out of context here.m> people reading what they want to read.

Noones ramping > Just discussing then possibilities. Also very clearly the focal points especially for the SE have been areas > 150M > even 200M

If you rewind the past 24 hours every single model has moved closer to the ECM with the plume of PPN > & these have also crept west >
 

Lets see what actually happens before performing a post mortem on a system still in the channel.

Look how bad the high res models are ( ICON & APERGE )

Edited December 3, 2020 by Steve Murr

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, snowking said:

Admittedly I don't have access to the 6z ECM, but surely that would need to be a fairly monumental shift from it's 0z position below:

Compared to the 12z Icon:

We're talking about the Western periphery being nudging Coventry on the ECM vs it barely reaching Cambridge on the Icon, so a shift of ~80-100 miles or so?

I appreciate that in the grand scheme of the wider troposphere that's pretty tiny, but at 24 hours out that seems fairly poor performance wise to me one way or another

Actually kriss, a review of the 06z on an iPad rather than a phone reveals it really didn’t go east that much .....the intensity and therefore snowfall reduced but the movement east was probably fairly negligible....

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Some folk need to understand that this thread is to discuss the model outputs that be 6hr out or 2 weeks. Also if folk are looking for there 1st snowflake of the season using said models that's absolutely fine even if there are no METO warnings out for said areas.

Last but not least, Some people get excited some don't, That's fine but just let it be.. I've always found marginal snow events a little exiting, But I wouldn't expect everyone to be just because I am and visa/versa..

absolutely! The thread has, for the most part, been extremely civilised and informative this season. There will always be a smattering of the pompous, the 'told-you-sos' and a few trolling for a reaction - but in the main it has been great. There is definitely enough uncertainty from the models and the various experts to maintain interest at the moment - nice for once not to be staring down the barrel of certain zonality in December.

[danm]

28 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

When was the last time we had a snow risk in early December?

 

 

2010. 

The only other time since where we had great potential in the models in early/mid December was in 2012, which all ended in tears....

[TSNWK]

33 minutes ago, West is Best said:

No you're not and yes it is. Ludicrously so. I blame it on Covid, so it's understandable but in the end it's causing more pain.

Jeeze! How patronizing, must of us know the rules in this place and are  capable of drawing our own conclusions, taking in the sprit intended the fun & frolics this forum has in the winter time, along with a healthy dose of facts learning

Personally I have learnt so much over the years from this place, with a right balance of technical knowledge, articulated in a clear manner and with fun – I would have quickly switched off years ago if I was lectured on hard facts ( this is a hobby for me, not work ) – at the end of the day I come to this place for a little fun, to broaden my knowledge  in a topic I find interesting – and if it’s a little rough & tumble at times with disappointments and let downs from over excitement – well that’s life and there are far worse places to pick up a few knocks than a weather forum.

 

And to close – the 12Z GFS is back in fine style with that famous word potential so I say lets saddle up and lets enjoy the next chase.... 

Edited December 3, 2020 by TSNWK

[Weathizard]

10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

So here's the 12z UKMO at T144. This is not a set up that screams cold to me? The best thing about it, is that it's very early winter.

Got to agree, and I just took a look at the GEFS and pressure looks to be rising to our south in the mid term which doesn’t exactly inspire optimism and that massive Russian high shows no sign of budging, it’s really going to be a waiting game for any proper notable cold spell.

 

Pressure rising to the south, troughing to the west and a limpet Russian high pressure cell the size of Europe, yuk!

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Weathizard

[Allseasons-Si]

I am surprised no one posted the 12z ICON with a cold pool of air building out east with trough maybe disrupting S/SE

but i do like the gfs 12z with that arctic high...yummy!!!

 

 

[Zak M]

Well the GFS parallel is showing some snow falling ahead of a front on day 5 with only -2c uppers.. sub-zero dewpoints I would assume?

[Eagle Eye]

Mainland Europe getting colder, possibly coming up.