Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Kiwi said:

Looking interesting out west ...Pembrokeshire Dangler?

UKV has had that marked for a few days too.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This will 'feel' very cold compared to the last 9 Decembers. The uppers aren't jaw dropping but remember the last umpteen years when Greece had lower uppers than the UK. The opposite is true now. Plus 4 uppers over there for a change.... Where they belong

Looks like the jet is going far south towards North Africa on this run in FI 

[Allseasons-Si]

Anyway

is this the regional thread to see if it will snow in my back garden in the N,S,E or west?

this is the model output thread am i right,there is so much clutter in here that you would think it wasn't

OK,back to the models and i can see amplification returning on this run....

18z at 156 v's 12z 162

thanks to the downstream trough off the eastern seaboard,the more amplified that is the less it becomes phased with the UK trough.

 

 

[Updated_Weather]

37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not really - these small features sometimes get picked up late or don’t verify .....

no sign of anything on the metoffice either getting into the same areas as the ec feature .....

Probably gonna get told off but this was released from the MetO regarding Fridays snow fall potential in the south.

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Probably gonna get told off but this was released from the MetO regarding Fridays snow fall potential in the south.

Very interesting

[Griff]

GFS vs ecm at day 10 

Vaguely similar... Well at a stretch. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Griff

[Tim Bland]

How do I break it to my wife that in in Love with Harmonie ?  Is that 30-40cm patches over the South Downs

[sheikhy]

Right im gona take a punt and say it wont be as far west as ecm takes it but not as far east as gfs!!so east midlands and western east anglia going to get a good old covering of snow

[WxHerts]

WOW...Arome 18z generally agrees with Harmonie's overall synopsis, a significant change from its 12z run (18z shows widespread snow through the SE by just after midnight)!

[kold weather]

Tricky forecast for Friday morning in particular. It's the type of setup that more than most will be determined by height and intensity of ppn. If we get a solid core like we are seeing on ECM and harmonie then the chances of snow increase over a wider area. If that core us a little too far east and sets up over the North sea then we are probably going to see lower odds of snow at least at low levels accumulating.

36hrs in these real borderline situations is still quite a long time but it should clear up by 12z tomorrow.

[Hotspur62]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

GFS vs ecm at day 10 

Vaguely similar... 

And both still have low heights over northern Italy and Southern Europe generally.I think a chilly next 7-10 days at least is ahead of us but how chilly and will it be cold enough for snow?to be continued.....

[Bradley in Kent]

I much prefer looking at the models on a short term basis and certainly enjoy phrases like 'disruptive snow'!

January 2016 and  February 2019 have left a scar on me regarding upcoming cold spells. As far as I remember most models and the Met Office were showing Beast From The East scenarios only to totally evaporate. The mild outlier verified. We have one now which will probably come true... 

Anyway, back to the now / T+48 hours

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Bradley in Kent
More text

[sheikhy]

Arome an absolute direct hit for east mids and western east anglia

[Eskimo]

Arpege going for a wee pivot over the Midlands/central southern england during friday night on the 18z - although begins to turn to rain as dew points start rising. 

Excellent short-term model watching regardless of what happens. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Eskimo

[Updated_Weather]

9 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

I much prefer looking at the models on a short term basis and certainly enjoy phrases like 'disruptive snow'!

January 2016 and  February 2019 have left a scar on me regarding upcoming cold spells. As far as I remember most models and the Met Office were showing Beast From The East scenarios only to totally evaporate. The mild outlier verified. We have one now which will probably come true... 

Anyway, back to the now / T+48 hours

 

Very different set up. I wouldn’t worry about that mild outlier.

[Downpour]

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How do I break it to my wife that in in Love with Harmonie ?  Is that 30-40cm patches over the South Downs

Is she a French model?

[bluearmy]

Just now, Downpour said:

Is she a French model?

She’s Dutch .......

[BlueHedgehog074]

Secretly admit, that snowy ECMWF chart for Friday for the Midlands and South-East looked Winter-ful and has got me a little excited.  Even though it could quite easily not happen. Must remember now you silly Red Line it’s only one chart. Even if there is a bit of support

So do be aware guys and try not get too sucked in yet, but I totally understand the enthusiasm. Think quite a number, looking at the posts, are feeling the same. Will deffo be the case of looking at the lampposts and out of windows on the day itself. Could be like one of those situations where the models hand out snowy presents for excited cold weather fans... only to find it’s impossible to take off the wrapping paper! 

In that regards, we will seriously have to consider opening this up from tomorrow onwards. The demand I’m sure will be sky high

Been updated to 2020 standards above compared to what it was like last year 

 

All newly refurbished inside as well

Edited December 2, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[markw2680]

Not really sure why everyone is getting so hung up over the precipitation charts at this stage, when it comes to possible snow it will still be uncertain who and where right upto the event itself, yes ok a few hours before should tell us where will get the rain but to get snow when things are so marginal it’s going to go to the wire folks so just relax and let it unfold. Somebody hopefully will get dumped on but who.....

[Matt H]

18z extended goes for a Scandi high, but by the looks of it any cold air would take about 8 working days to get to us, if at all.

Edited December 2, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Tim Bland]

I knew we would start seeing runs like this as soon as Blast from the Past starting forecasting a beast from the east for Xmas (again)

[John Stevens]

3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Secretly admit, that snowy ECMWF chart for Friday for the Midlands and South-East looked Winter-ful and has got me a little excited.  Even though it could quite easily not happen. Must remember now you silly Red Line it’s only one chart. Even if there is a bit of support

So do be aware guys and try not get too sucked in yet, but I totally understand the enthusiasm. Think quite a number, looking at the posts, are feeling the same. Will deffo be the case of looking at the lampposts and out of windows on the day itself. Could be like one of those situations where the models hand out snowy presents for excited cold weather fans... only to find it’s impossible to take off the wrapping paper! 

In that regards, we will seriously have to consider opening this up from tomorrow onwards. The demand I’m sure will be sky high

Been updated to 2020 standards above compared to what it was like last year 

 

All newly refurbished inside as well

Clearly in a tier 1 area

[Allseasons-Si]

That block to our E/NE is determining the weather ATM and it will provide so many outcomes/scenarios across the NWP'S for a good while yet with a holding pattern,whether troughs disrupt SE under the block is one scenario or will the lows ride over the top(alternative scenario)? 

the UK hangs on a balance regarding this

we are at the mercy that if the heights are not strong enough or north enough to disrupt the lows/troughs SE enough then the high will sink SE

it is a give or take at the moment and i couldn't tell you what is going to happen ATM.

[danthetan]

47 minutes ago, Kiwi said:

Looking interesting out west ...Pembrokeshire Dangler?

 

Now thats a snow maker *if the right side of margins. Don't think so this time for low level the mountains could get a dusting which isn't unusual for winter.

[Tim Bland]

Jokes aside Euro4 is the top high res model for me. Rarely far out when it comes down to 36hrs or less. BBC TV forecast graphics are usually a direct lift from this model. Looks sensible for Fri...