Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Huge egg on the face incoming for one of gfs or ecm?

Not really - these small features sometimes get picked up late or don’t verify .....

no sign of anything on the metoffice either getting into the same areas as the ec feature .....

[Dancerwithwings]

19 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

maybe this is the wrong thread to discuss in then?

Don’t tell him but we have a *unexpected snowfall thread* that may change ones mind

Edited December 2, 2020 by Dancerwithwings

[IDO]

Too far east that low feature and warms the uppers a bit too much:

Still time for a shift west but looking like a bit of a damp squib TBH!

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by IDO

[sheikhy]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Not really - these small features sometimes get picked up late or don’t verify .....

no sign of anything on the metoffice either getting into the same areas as the ec feature .....

Surely sorted by 00z tomorrow blue?i mean the ecm is like 200 miles west thats huge for a ridiculously short time frame and thats putting it lightly mate!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

kinda develop our own cold pool, but absolute jack sh.... snaw showing for the W Midlands

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Surely sorted by 00z tomorrow blue?i mean the ecm is like 200 miles west thats huge for a ridiculously short time frame and thats putting it lightly mate!!

Again we had the same model confusion in 2017 with the slider then.

The models do not seem capable of handling these situations at all well.

PS Then the low followed the 'average' route, and it was never accurately forecast even at 6 hours.

Lets see.

MIA

Edited December 2, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Daniel*]

There is a bit of snow for parts of EA seems like a nowcast to me not massively east of ECM and the low is actually less deep on GFS. The PPN is a lot less expansive I’m not sure why, suppose it has to do with that vorticity mentioned lacking on GFS. 

 

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Surely sorted by 00z tomorrow blue?i mean the ecm is like 200 miles west thats huge for a ridiculously short time frame and thats putting it lightly mate!!

200 miles is nothing .....if there wasn’t a threat of snowfall then no one would even notice this ! 

[weirpig]

again so many variables  for a bit of the white stuff.

Bullseye from the arp for the midlands  

  

Edited December 2, 2020 by weirpig

[Dancerwithwings]

4 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Again we had the same model confusion in 2017 with the slider then.

The models do not seem capable of handling these situations at all well.

PS Then the low followed the 'average' route, and it was never accurately forecast even at 6 hours.

Lets see.

MIA

That 18z Icon slider low for this forthcoming Monday that Steve mentioned was mentioned on the 10 day BBC news forecast (potential snow for Wales and the Midlands)......blimey! and they are unsure what’s happening Friday 

[blizzard81]

What I liked most about the ecm 12z run in the 8 - 10 day timeframe was two things. Firstly is how flat the azores high stays. No ridging whatsoever towards our shores, which in tandem with low heights into southern Europe is very beneficial in the long run. Secondly, a seemingly robust Arctic high ridging down towards our side of the northern hemisphere. This in conjunction with the flat azores high and low southern European heights is very encouraging going forward into the heart of December

 

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters seem to have failed on the ec website  - typically a day after I closed the page on the Icelandic site ..... a reminder of the page please ?

[Griff]

Glad to see this has cleared up a lot of confusion for the start of next week....  

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

again so many variables  for a bit of the white stuff.

Bullseye from the arome for the midlands

Jesus!!!!just taken a look at the accumulation charts and it gives 15-20 cms acrossbthe east/north midlannds!!!not saying its right but good viewing!!

[weirpig]

And everyones  favourite girl about town

Edited December 2, 2020 by weirpig

[WxHerts]

Our beloved Harmonie has shifted the main risk west quite considerably (contrary to other comparable models which appear to have shifted east instead).

[Don]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

And everyones  favourite girl about tow

Even my location gets in on a bit of the action there!

Edited December 2, 2020 by Don

[Methuselah]

25cm of snow, on the top of the Shard? And who's this 'Harmony'? Is she or isn't she?

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not really - these small features sometimes get picked up late or don’t verify .....

no sign of anything on the metoffice either getting into the same areas as the ec feature .....

In 2020 with under 36 hours? All models I’ve checked have developed this secondary low and rapidly deepen it in English Channel. This small feature is going to happen that is clear. 

AROME 12z

[Kiwi]

1 minute ago, WxHerts said:

Our beloved Harmonie has shifted the main risk west quite considerably (contrary to other comparable models which appear to have shifted east instead).

Looking interesting out west ...Pembrokeshire Dangler?

 

[Matt H]

Just now, General Cluster said:

25cm of snow, on the top of the Shard? And who's this 'Harmony'? Is she or isn't she?

I think Harmonie has been making use of the pubs reopening today.

[Eskimo]

4 minutes ago, WxHerts said:

Our beloved Harmonie has shifted the main risk west quite considerably (contrary to other comparable models which appear to have shifted east instead).

Well that'about 100 miles further south.

[Griff]

Donnie Darko Bunny has taken up residence... 

Curious signal towards Greenland amplification, GFS keeps trying... 

All change tomorrow morning? 

[blizzard81]

This will 'feel' very cold compared to the last 9 Decembers. The uppers aren't jaw dropping but remember the last umpteen years when Greece had lower uppers than the UK. The opposite is true now. Plus 4 uppers over there for a change.... Where they belong

[nick sussex]

Laughable differences between the GFS 12hrs run and the 18hrs run .

These wild swings aren’t well into FI but within day 7 . 

A sorry state of affairs for those who produce the GFS and have placed quantity  over quality . Instead of 4 runs a day they’d be better served delivering two a day .

Anyway that’s my seasonal GFS moan done with for another year !