Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep-      Thats the one. Just look at my avatar it produced 25cms in here in 12 hours.

I got up at 03:00 to watch the whole event.

It also was North, South, up and down rain or snow for the last 3 days.

It ended up as a lamp post job......    (wonderful)  and ended up as all snow in Bham, and this extended to many central areas as the snow spreadout. 

MIA

was a very exciting build up on here, difference here was the air was colder, not as many as 25cms, closer to 12, but great event

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Sky Full said:

Hi WV - sorry I only just saw your post but I see SussexSnow has replied anyway.  I find I have to click on the finished GIF in Meteociel and save it to photos so the file can be uploaded to NW but there may be easier ways to do it...

You can just paste the URL of the window the GIF appears in on Meteociel and it will embed in your post.  You don’t have to save the GIF to your device.  

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Mucka! Back for another season then? Still on the night shifts ? Part of winter routine over the years  was my morning model briefing from you as the kettled boiled.. hope you’re keeping well

 

Of course!

But like everybody else there are other pressing matters that have shifted my attention elsewhere, shall we say?

Certainly no Winter Wonderland on the horizon but plenty of seasonal fare on offer, frost, rain, sleet and snow for some of the lucky ones.

The Atlantic sliding into coldish continental flow could provide a bit of fun but hoping to see some of the Atlantic blocking that is often getting modelled in FI stick 

Hope you and yours are well too.

[sheikhy]

Gfs 850s at 48 hours -4 to -5!!ecm 850s at 48 hours -1 to -2!!these are for leicestershire !!quite a difference!!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Gfs 850s at 48 hours -4 to -5!!ecm 850s at 48 hours -1 to -2!!these are for leicestershire !!quite a difference!!

Dont panic Mr Mannering !!!

Its a Nowcast matey ...

Keep an eye on Euro4 , although it seemed to blow a fuse last Winter and started making stories up about snow IMBY ...

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean still looks absolutely fine to me, here a bit like a big tadpole in a pool away from its natural home:

But vortex away from home, and the crucial Southern Europe trough still very much in the picture.  All good.

[weirpig]

I'm getting obsessed   however the icon 15z  brings snow thursday afternoon at around 2ish  to the midlands  then travels slightly north east  as the evening goes on  

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by weirpig

[northwestsnow]

Agreed Mike...

Undoubtedly the Euro low is saving us from a pretty awful fate ..

My concern is we are seeing no appetite whatsoever for ridging into Greenland.

Eventually without a decent High Latitude block everything will flatten out and a +NAO will set up.

 

[Weathizard]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean still looks absolutely fine to me, here a bit like a big tadpole in a pool away from its natural home:

But vortex away from home, and the crucial Southern Europe trough still very much in the picture.  All good.

Equally though the the Russian heights are still very much prominent, whilst that is still showing up getting a true cold spell will be very difficult as even when the Atlantic is pretty quiet we end up with a stagnant pattern.

 

And you can bet your bottom dollar once that limpet annoying turd buggers off that the euro heights will be back  

Edited December 2, 2020 by Weathizard

[Mapantz]

For those asking where certain posters are hiding to, send them a PM rather than asking in this thread. Ta. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just had a gander through the GFS 12Z ensembles and there are a fair few that bring interesting sypnotics through the first part of the month.. Now if we can keep dthis kind of pattern through til the later part of the month, then bingo things will start to become very appealing... The one ensemble is an absolute stonker and as long as these keep showing, then muggins will keep posting em! 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed Mike...

Undoubtedly the Euro low is saving us from a pretty awful fate ..

My concern is we are seeing no appetite whatsoever for ridging into Greenland.

Eventually without a decent High Latitude block everything will flatten out and a +NAO will set up.

 

Yes, but that is a mean chart at T240, and we’ve seen a fair few ensemble members from the GEFS showing Greenland blocks, so that isn’t off the cards.  The longer the vortex stays away the greater the chance of heights there establishing themselves, but we need to be lucky.

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Equally though the the Russian heights are still very much prominent, whilst that is still showing up getting a true cold spell will be very difficult as even when the Atlantic is pretty quiet we end up with a stagnant pattern.

Yes, this is why we might well be discussing sliding patterns against a weak block as per ECM T240 and marginal conditions for snowfall for foreseeable, I agree.  

[northwestsnow]

Anyone else doubting EC 46 latest offering ?

Hopefully Mike is right and the mean is smoothing out any potential signal for blocking at higher latitudes..( I'm looking at you Greenland by the way).

[E17boy]

Good evening peeps

Hope everyone is well and safe. Been a bit of a miserable day here in Walthamstow  NE London today, had bits of rain and drizzle since the afternoon no doubt it's that cold front that is coming through.

I know there has been a lot of talk about what the weAther will throw at us at the end of this week, some lucky ones may see wintriness but to be honest my expectations are low but we shall see.

just some Breaking news had a look on my app ( don't know how accurate that is) but it's showing snow already falling in Edinburgh.

Anyway apart from the weather stay safe all and maybe I will be back soon to do a new post.

take care 

keep safe

regards

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Anyone else doubting EC 46 latest offering ?

Hopefully Mike is right and the mean is smoothing out any potential signal for blocking at higher latitudes..( I'm looking at you Greenland by the way).

To be clear I was talking about the daily ECM 12z mean, not the 46, although I understand that was positive for cold yesterday.  The thing we need to worry about is ECM monthly v GloSea5 where it was GloSea5 that apparently had the Atlantic back by 10th Dec.  But time will tell...I don’t think the Atlantic will be back by 10th Dec by the way!!

Edited December 2, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Relativistic]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Good evening peeps

...

just some Breaking news had a look on my app ( don't know how accurate that is) but it's showing snow already falling in Edinburgh.

Anyway apart from the weather stay safe all and maybe I will be back soon to do a new post.

take care 

keep safe

regards

It's raining 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Relativistic

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM is a corker, and very happy with the UKMO.  Mentioned to big Steve Murr my dislike of ECM t240 0z even though as Steve said some pretty cold continental surface feed likely...it smelt of breakdown....12z much better throughout for longevity imo.

 

BFTP

[mulzy]

Unfortunately, the trend of removing the low heights over Europe in the extended EPS timeframe has continued.  Higher heights remain to the north and east - though looks like the higher heights to the east pushing westward through eastern parts of Europe.

Still a decent outlook though not as good as a few days ago.

Edited December 2, 2020 by mulzy

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Unfortunately, the trend of removing the low heights over Europe in the extended EPS timeframe has continued.  Higher heights remain to the north and east - though looks like the higher heights to the east pushing westward through eastern parts of Europe.

Still a decent outlook though not as good as a few days ago.

As i feared.

Hopefully a swing back tomorrow...

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

As i feared.

Hopefully a swing back tomorrow...

We’ll the 00z suites weren’t as concerning as yesterday’s 12z’s so all we’ve done is go in a circle over 24 hours ! 

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Central southern England for the jackpot!?

I can only put the lack of posts on the ECM down to disbelief from those in the SE.

23cm of snow in a populated area at the start of December at T36 - on the world's number 1 model - it's normally enough to fill 5 pages on here alone.

The thing is, I can't bring myself to believe it either...

[E17boy]

14 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

It's raining 

Well that proves the weather app on my mobile is 120 percent reliable lol .  I sometimes wonder where they get these app data from 

regards 

[Froze were the Days]

15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM is a corker, and very happy with the UKMO.  Mentioned to big Steve Murr my dislike of ECM t240 0z even though as Steve said some pretty cold continental surface feed likely...it smelt of breakdown....12z much better throughout for longevity imo.

ECM 0z's have 'smelt' of breakdowns the last couple of runs...it's the 12z's which are holding onto the hope, be interesting which starts moving to the other?

[sheikhy]

Icon still the same?!!!not much change looking at the pressure charts!!out to 45 hours!!

[SMU]

ICON 18z has sharpened up the low at 36 & 39 > moving the PPN from offshore Kent into London / Suffolk & EA with a bigger emphasis on wintry PPN than the 12z but not on the same scale as ECM

* remember the further west it comes the closer the proximity to the colder air & more snow..

Its such a small feature !  975MB in the channel

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Steve Murr