Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Eskimo]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

For what its worth at this range  and depending what falls the euro 4  brings the wrap around further west

Yup - follows this morning's ECM somewhat and the beautiful woman we know as 'Harmonie' 

The caveat is that it fizzles out  as it moves westward. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Eskimo

[Weather vane]

Regarding earlier excitement about the 6am GFS 384hr chart, I agree fully with J Holmes and others that nearly always you will be in for disappointment, especially it seems in winter. Looking 7-10  days ahead is still plenty of fun, at least for me. Speaking of which  the below 7-10 day charts show how incredibly resilient the western russia/siberian high is. Need this to shift to get cold from the east.

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Yup - follows this morning's ECM somewhat and the beautiful woman we know as 'Harmonie' 

The caveat is that it fizzles out  as it moves westward. 

I will bank that all day long if its snow!!midlands jackpot lol!!

[Tim Bland]

ECM about the same so far 00z Vs 12z for midnight Thurs below 

[SMU]

Euro 4 12z Snow depths Fri 10AM

ECM track at the same time a smidge west

SNOW ALL friday for SW london

 

 

[Tim Bland]

Central southern England for the jackpot!?

[SMU]

ECM is 9 inches of Snow over SW london...

[bluearmy]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

ECM is 9 inches of Snow over SW london...

pedantically, the very far sw reaches of London steve ……. more surrey hills ??

[sheikhy]

Absolute heartbreak for me here in the east midlands!!ecm too far west!!dagger to the heart

[SMU]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

pedantically, the very far sw reaches of London steve ……. more surrey hills ??

Ok yes .... SW london sounds more dramatic... 

The width of the snowband covers about 60-80 miles so I get 1cm lol 

[winterof79]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Yup - follows this morning's ECM somewhat and the beautiful woman we know as 'Harmonie' 

The caveat is that it fizzles out  as it moves westward. 

Not sure all these models take oragraphic rainfall into consideration. 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Absolute heartbreak for me here in the east midlands!!ecm too far west!!dagger to the heart

I'm sure this will not be the final track   plus I can't see it producing as much snow as the ecm says 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Absolute heartbreak for me here in the east midlands!!ecm too far west!!dagger to the heart

don't be heartbroken - experience over the years tells me that you're just as likely to be dumped on come friday am than anywhere !  by the same token, perhaps no one will be dumped on away from elevation!  i suspect you aren't heartbroken in any case!

Edited December 2, 2020 by bluearmy

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I'm sure this will not be the final track   plus I can't see it producing as much snow as the ecm says 

Nope, sorry that’s it now. No more changes allowed it’s also the only chance for snow this season......... Until Monday?....

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Tim Bland

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

don't be heartbroken - experience over the years tells me that you're just as likely to be dumped on come friday am than anywhere !  by the same token, perhaps no one will be dumped on away from elevation!  i suspect you aren't heartbroken in any case!

Thanks mate!!!if it ends up like that then from a selfish persepctive i rather it go all in the north sea

[Timmytour]

The very fact that we are talking about the possibility of snow tomorrow is testament to the 'accuracy'  shown for D10 from at least one set of GFS output! Fortunately it was the one I decided to go hell for leather and tell the relatives that 3rd Dec could well provide us in the south east with our first snow of the winter. I still of course may be wrong, but now look like being close enough, even if we only get cold rain, not to be mocked!  

Naturally with the GFS that could just be a broken clock moment.  I think the runs I saw were from the 23rd or 24 November which got the usual excited posts in response which in turn got the traditional "it's ten days off, don't get excited" replies!

I wonder how accurate that 10 day modelling actually was?  i don't know how to go back at look at it, but I think it showed a remarkable similarity in its outlook from all that time away to what Harmonie is now showing in a lot shorter timeframe.  That said, I'm talking about the south-east of the UK.  The rest of the northern hemisphere could have been way off mark!  Still, nice to know some favourable 10 day modelling does sometimes come close to bringing home the bacon..... I can't remember the last time!

Edited December 2, 2020 by Timmytour
spelling

[SussexSnow]

Do you think the GFS Op might have been an outlier at the end? 

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Gordon Benito! It's from one extreme to the other!

    

Tbh this isn't far off my expectations of a UK high middle to end of December

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Absolute heartbreak for me here in the east midlands!!ecm too far west!!dagger to the heart

Hold fire mate... it will change...might be wetter still  come Friday

[Griff]

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

 

Come on guys no IMBY posts please... *

 

(*in unrelated news abc I'm slap bang in the middle of the 23cm! ) 

 

As others have mentioned GFS definitely an outlier. 

Any one got a clue what will happen next week? 

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Come on guys no IMBY posts please... *

 

(*in unrelated news abc I'm slap bang in the middle of the 23cm! ) 

 

As others have mentioned GFS definitely an outlier. 

Any one got a clue what will happen next week? 

Highs of 25c is on the cards mate.

[heath]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Tbh this isn't far off my expectations of a UK high middle to end of December

What do you think would happen next then? 

[sheikhy]

Big 18z coming up in regards to friday!!!!now watch it bang 20 cms of snow across east anglia and the east midlands

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, and GFS for comparison:

12 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I wonder how accurate that 10 day modelling actually was?  i don't know how to go back at look at it, but I think it showed a remarkable similarity in its outlook from all that time away to what Harmonie is now showing in a lot shorter timeframe.  That said, I'm talking about the south-east of the UK.  The rest of the northern hemisphere could have been way off mark!  Still, nice to know some favourable 10 day modelling does sometimes come close to bringing home the bacon..... I can't remember the last time!

For sure, but the bacon has yet to be brought home, i might remind you!!  

ECM T144, and GFS for comparison:

It seems to me that with the vortex over t’other side, we are at the mercy of shortwaves and wedges all over the place.  Should throw up some surprises I would guess.  

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, heath said:

What do you think would happen next then? 

I posted it 3 or 4 days ago but my forecast was surprise snowfall first 2 weeks of December a UK hight back end of December. A zonal period first half of January while zonal winds get flushed down from Strato warming back end of a December and the coldest period of winter Late January and all of February