Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Tim Bland]

Keep all ya models!! Harmonie (or whatever her name is) is the new top

Edited December 2, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Eskimo]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Apologies, I just realised that.

However, the 12z run of the HARMONIE has just come out, and it's even better, with tons of snow for cenral-southern England!!!

   

If that comes off, I'll eat my hat...but not just my hat, every hat of every single person that frequents this forum. 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

Hello John I've always had a respect for your NOAA / ??? 6-10 & 11-14 day mean charts - was wondering if they are picking up on anything similar to the end of  past couple of GFS Runs  or not? 

Not looked today so I'll go and check. In the meantime if any model is showing a similar upper air pattern in the 6-14 day time scale to the NOAA output then it is worth checking them. DON'T though look at successive runs beyond about T+144. The more recent data that help below this time scale is of little if no use at longer time scales. Compare like with like: thus 00 t00 etc.

Off to have a look.

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Keep all ya models!! Harmonie (or whatever her name is) is the new top

Now that is very very ecm like except a little further south and west!

[Tim Bland]

Aperge a bit further north and only goes to 42hrs...

[SMU]

Aperge looks good - 

To be fair every week I go on about how much I rate the Harmonie model & its relentless reliability....

 

[SussexSnow]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Aperge a bit further north and only goes to 42hrs...

Looks very good for the West Country moors there 

[TSNWK]

So who is this Harmonie! Nice Eye Candy, but is there any substance!

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Aperge a bit further north and only goes to 42hrs...

 

Looks a smidge further south to me but let's be honest...it's pretty much identical. 

06z

12z
 

 

[Mapantz]

We know this to be wrong, as there's snow over Dorset.. 

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, SussexSnow said:

Looks very good for the West Country moors there 

Quite jealous as I'm just sightly out of that area

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Aperge a bit further north and only goes to 42hrs...

Pretty much direct hit for me!!if ecm 12z shows the same this evening then im gona have to back it over gfs!!!!surely cant be wrong at just 30 odd hours

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

So who is this Harmonie! Nice Eye Candy, but is there any substance!

It is a new development from HIRLAM apparently, this explains:

http://en.wikipedia.org//static/favicon/wikipedia.ico HIRLAM - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[SussexSnow]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Quite jealous as I'm just sightly out of that area

I'm way out of the area, but I am driving to Falmouth on Friday to pick my son up from University for Xmas.   

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Aperge a bit further north and only goes to 42hrs...

That's the Arome.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO144 looks better this evening to my eyes ...

Need some help to the North West though !!

[mpkio2]

To be honest, I rate the HARMONI model quite highly. A few years ago during a rain to snow event (Think it might have been 2017/2018 for the 10th Dec 2017 snow fall), many models were flopping around if it would snow in the south (London) area, but HARMONIE ranted and raving saying "Yes it will snow in London!" Guess what? It was right!!

But of course, it could easily be wrong this time around.

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by mpkio2

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO144 looks better this evening to my eyes ...

Need some help to the North West though !!

Much better ukmo!!!!also the low at 48 hours looks different compared to gfs!!hard to tell without the precipitation charts!

[Jason M]

22 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Apologies, I just realised that.

However, the 12z run of the HARMONIE has just come out, and it's even better, with tons of snow for cenral-southern England!!!

   

Despite the fact that I think its going to me more a case of 'wet wet wet' rather than 'snow patrol' I would not bet heavily against this (at least in terms of what drops out the sky).  The problem will presumably be rapid melting so little accumulation. Temps / Dew points all marginal with relatively warm SSTs and warm ground temps. Not really a recipe for winter wonderland IMHO. We are probably looking at 'slush and muck' at best. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Much better ukmo!!!!also the low at 48 hours looks different compared to gfs!!hard to tell without the precipitation charts!

Thurs and Fri are Nowcast ....

Double whammy of not knowing where the precip will be and if it will be cold enough...

 

[Anthony Burden]

Latest charts so far showing low pressure meandering around U.K. with no where to go.

The normal track up past the east of Iceland out of the equation.Very slack to the north of UK

waiting for the Greenland high to establish and bring some real winter to are shores.

 

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That's the Arome.

Yep  arp bring precipitation  over the midlands on Friday  although mainly  wintry mix   so many variables

[ghoneym]

Great to see such Harmonie in here this evening so far......GFS 12z signal for heights into Greenland dropped on this run, fully expect chop and change on this for a good few days to come. Lots of wintery potential for many areas to come next 48 hours, low lying areas included!

[johnholmes]

In answer to the question TNSWK asked me, this is the latest of the 3 models, not using charts so forgive me for that.

Ec-gfs=ec shows similar pattern over atlantic into Europe; gfs not too dissimilar but it has some changes to the upper trough depth, also it again re links (having dropped it) the ridging into the US from further east; not sure how these ‘might’ affect the 6-10 outlook, so to noaa

Noaa 6-10 the flow over w n America and further west is somewhat flatter than 24 hours ago with the ridge east of it also, not much change east of this, but the ridge and +ve heights are somewhat more pronounced than 24 hours ago. The trough east of this about the same, position and depth.

So overall not much to suggest anything marked is about to happen at 500 mb. Detail on a day to day basis, as always, from the 2x or 4X model outputs. No marked change showing on its 8-14 with Noaa.

Edited December 2, 2020 by johnholmes
spelling

[heath]

Recent GFS runs in their outer reaches have shown Scandy high, Iceland wedge and Greenland high. And now nice south westerlies from an Iberian high. Plenty of choice, and uncertainty.