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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

I like the look of this very encouraging progression from the GFS 6z between the 11th and 18th December....

3D9BF807-3919-43C9-B3F2-E3F7384333FE.thumb.gif.0d2375a27a5047bd0e85a8780a51d4e1.gif  CABDF014-5056-4DFF-9F7D-13D454D5B784.thumb.gif.5a57a22b41cef061b68ea01065e1d1d7.gif
 

That cold in the east is on the move - and in our direction! 

Needless to say, we will have to wait and see to compare these fantasy charts with the reality in 10 days from now.....

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

12z ICON and UKV further east with the low track northwards on Friday compared to EC, so heavier ppn on western flank  of low, with greater potential to turn snow, not getting as far west as SE and Midlands, rather up through E Anglia then NW across N England.

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Posted
  • Location: Broadstairs, Isle of Thanet, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme seasonal events
  • Location: Broadstairs, Isle of Thanet, Kent

Seasonal weather insight within the reliable forecasting range. No thrills. Anyone expecting to get widespread snow fall across inland areas are going to be majorly disappointed. The cold pooling simply isn't in place. 
In fact we don’t currently have a spell of half decent cold weather insight for the uk. A scenario that becoming evermore frequent in the British modern day winter. Sorry to put a dampener on things but we must remain realistic on this forum and resist any unnecessary ramping up of the situation.

Edited by Shere Khan
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

12z ICON and UKV further east with the low track northwards on Friday compared to EC, so heavier ppn on western flank  of low, with greater potential to turn snow, not getting as far west as SE and Midlands, rather up through E Anglia then NW across N England.

According to weripig the icon pushed some of the snow now into the midlands!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

According to weripig the icon pushed some of the snow now into the midlands!!!!!

It does  thursday evening  however very hit and miss  and patchy   then progresses north 

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs looks identical to its earlier run!!looks like ecm gona have huge egg on its face!!really poor if it gets it wrong at just 42 hours out!!

What was the ECM showing?

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

What was the ECM showing?

Snow more widely scross south east and then the midlands and north wales!!from a top performing model like the ecm if it gets it wrong its pretty bad i think!!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
20 minutes ago, Shere Khan said:

Seasonal weather insight within the reliable forecasting range. No thrills. Anyone expecting to get widespread snow fall across inland areas are going to be majorly disappointed. The cold pooling simply isn't in place. 
In fact we don’t currently have a spell of half decent cold weather insight for the uk. A scenario that becoming evermore frequent in the British modern day winter. Sorry to put a dampener on things but we must remain realistic on this forum and resist any unnecessary ramping up of the situation.

Don't suppose you can help me but what are these pink splurge.... Asking for a friend

Screenshot_20201202_155620.jpg

Screenshot_20201202_155506.jpg

Screenshot_20201202_155557.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, Zak M said:

The HARMONIE is showing quite a lot of snow in Scotland and NW England, and another area to the SE near London. Perhaps some snow over the hills of Wales too.

harmonieeur40-1-48-3.thumb.png.0a54f937a056d51dddfa7e5e9f5dbf0f.png   harmonieeur40-26-48-3.thumb.png.c2cd740f759bb829dd443221fe2c950d.png

That agrees with the ecm!!!!this could go down to the actual day itself!

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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

I'll get the shredder ready for the next run lads.   

Never hang your hat on a moving peg. 

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12 GFS heads towards the ECM for the SE with a westerly correction & larger plume of PPN > you also see some wintryness appearing- not quite on this run but a good start with 42 hours to go

FEBB851A-C6F1-4900-9F0D-75752349BCCA.thumb.png.32d673a3b34929e41c795636e1ac61ad.png64E39BB2-24E5-4BF1-887F-E4318B3DFBC7.thumb.png.3a74db545e2ca2e7dcbc9ed2eb7088e6.png

Looks like the Far South west could see a chance of snowfall if else 

Though of course we can't favour over one or the other just because it's more snowfall etc 

One model will prove to be right 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The HARMONIE is showing quite a lot of snow in Scotland and NW England, and another area to the SE near London. Perhaps some snow over the hills of Wales too.

harmonieeur40-1-48-3.thumb.png.0a54f937a056d51dddfa7e5e9f5dbf0f.png   harmonieeur40-26-48-3.thumb.png.c2cd740f759bb829dd443221fe2c950d.png

Had to double check that on Meteociel, Zak, as it was a new one on me, apparently it replaces the Dutch HIRLAM (which I wondered yesterday why I couldn’t view it).  I hope this model is as good as the HIRLAM, which was one of the best for short range precipitation forecasts and decent also with convection during the 2018 BFTE.  We will see...

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Had to double check that on Meteociel, Zak, as it was a new one on me, apparently it replaces the Dutch HIRLAM (which I wondered yesterday why I couldn’t view it).  I hope this model is as good as the HIRLAM, which was one of the best for short range precipitation forecasts and decent also with convection during the 2018 BFTE.  We will see...

Isn't it 6 z on meteo

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Had to double check that on Meteociel, Zak, as it was a new one on me, apparently it replaces the Dutch HIRLAM (which I wondered yesterday why I couldn’t view it).  I hope this model is as good as the HIRLAM, which was one of the best for short range precipitation forecasts and decent also with convection during the 2018 BFTE.  We will see...

Ah I thought it was maybe Hermione Granger anyway if it’s still showing something similar by tomorrow afternoon I’ll start to get a bit excited... maybe

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Out of interest, has anyone seen any data / modelling in relation to the lack of aircraft in the air this year and cooler temps in the northern hem?

I have a feeling its gonna get very cold later in the season due to the huge decrease in fossil fuel burning this whole year.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z GEM is also going for the heavy snowfall across Scotland and the chance of some snow in EA

gemeuw-2-42.thumb.png.e23935389851e7d4ea1688089f44d478.png

But also favours CS England on Saturday morning

gemeuw-2-66.thumb.png.9a175174c6f08eec0ec024d169736fa3.png

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Had to double check that on Meteociel, Zak, as it was a new one on me, apparently it replaces the Dutch HIRLAM (which I wondered yesterday why I couldn’t view it).  I hope this model is as good as the HIRLAM, which was one of the best for short range precipitation forecasts and decent also with convection during the 2018 BFTE.  We will see...

I used that model a lot during the summer with upcoming thunderstorm events. It performed pretty well for my area. I'm not sure if it's the same for snow though.

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
28 minutes ago, Shere Khan said:

Seasonal weather insight within the reliable forecasting range. No thrills. Anyone expecting to get widespread snow fall across inland areas are going to be majorly disappointed. The cold pooling simply isn't in place. 
In fact we don’t currently have a spell of half decent cold weather insight for the uk. A scenario that becoming evermore frequent in the British modern day winter. Sorry to put a dampener on things but we must remain realistic on this forum and resist any unnecessary ramping up of the situation.

It is a shame that the cool pooling isn’t more potent, but I imagine there will be some thrills for those that live on/close to Northern high ground at the very least. For the setup we are getting, yep it could be better for cold and wintry weather, though for me still beats Atlantic weather and it’s mild, rainy, conditions. Next few days not fully without interest I feel and the odd surprise for some further South couldn’t be totally ruled out either, despite how ropey the situation looks. 

I mean it is nice to have varying views on here and have a level head at times as it can be easy to get carried away. So you’re certainly entitled to your opinion

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Great place to be in heading into the start of winter. 

822165102_gfsnh-0-180(2).thumb.png.d1e2643efc8985d0e1b20fde713d972e.png

Normall all them lows would have phased and we would be staring down the barrel of a storm. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
52 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

higher then you might think?...

I dont know John, i understand you dont like to speculate beyond the 14 day mark the Anomalies cover, and for accuracy, i dont think anyone would argue against that.

But all the anomaly charts ive seen from all sources well into december are suggesting positive height anomalies to our north... so IF an operational chart in deep FI is broadly in line with them, doesnt it suggest that its not total fantasy no matter how far ahead it is? and that something like that is possible?..

Yes, I'd not disagree with that mushy but as I've got older I just use the EC-GFS and NOAA charts, all the work I used to do using other teleconnections are a bit too much work for me these days.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
18 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Isn't it 6 z on meteo

Apologies, I just realised that.

However, the 12z run of the HARMONIE has just come out, and it's even better, with tons of snow for cenral-southern England!!!

harmonieeur40-1-46-3.thumb.png.a3fb301b6cb9695cc4b5620270af0ea4.png   241023914_harmonieeur40-26-48-3(1).thumb.png.1a53e82eecd5e2712b02f0a2ea818bd4.png

Edited by Zak M
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