Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

literally the post after was about snow but anyway

This is why nobody is posting them anymore, that heat is unbearable for Winter.

Didn't realize someone asked for a barbecue this Christmas

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Didn't realize someone asked for a barbecue this Christmas

We all know that the best thing to have is A Barbaque at Christmas, at least you get rain that way, close enough to Snow.

[Matt H]

Greenland high incoming...

[Methuselah]

Is this a potential west-based -NAO, I see? If so, it's time to reach for the sunscreen!

    

[Paul_1978]

Interesting GFS 06z. Basically, a low pressure systems hang around over and above the British Isles from tomorrow all the way through to T+240 (12th Dec). 

Temperatures don't seem to be particularly low to me, so perhaps lots of showers of rain and sleet around, with only snow at height. 

This is very similar to ECM until T+168 but then the differences really start to show (I'm sure there are differences upstream before this).

In summary, really interesting model watching to be had. All winter forecasts are seemingly predicting a mild and wet winter, but there are lots of other things going on in the background that could lead to it staying cold.

[SMU]

PTB 18 from the 06z could be the jackpot 30cm run!

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 18 from the 06z could be the jackpot 30cm run!

Very snowy friday morning for midlands and south east❄

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 18 from the 06z could be the jackpot 30cm run!

We do live in the same Universe right, or have you traveled over from another one.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 18 from the 06z could be the jackpot 30cm run!

I’ve always said that PTB 18 is the most accurate of them all!

[Matt H]

12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Is this a potential west-based -NAO, I see? If so, it's time to reach for the sunscreen!

    

Don’t worry, it makes it at *checks notes* t354

Edited December 2, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[ALL ABOARD]

If that's a West based nao then I want in 

On a more serious note, a West based NAO cannot be achieved due to the remaining low heights and low pressure still located over Greenland? 

 

I may be wrong though. 

[Tim Bland]

Boootifull...a nice split in the PV as we approach Xmas week similar to 00z so not on its own 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Tim Bland

[TSNWK]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 18 from the 06z could be the jackpot 30cm run!

shameless Cherry picking ramping hehe   and why the heck not I say.. nothing wrong with a little dose of fun & games amongst the all the reality I say in this place and elsewhere...  

[Matt H]

This is beautiful.

Edited December 2, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

This is beautiful, and only 15 days away as well.

Chart of the season for me, cross polar flow topping up a trough to our east which is feeding a nice unstable airmass to us - if I was drawing a chart that would be it... 

[phil b]

You wouldn't think looking at these charts that you would get any snow but we did in B'ham 18th November 2007

[fromey]

4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

This is beautiful, and only 15 days away as well.

Would this tie in with this from Simon lee

[Tim Bland]

Wow A very cold and potentially snowy Christmas is lining up nicely ️

[Premiere Neige]

Sorry, not model related but relevant I think. The BBC has been showing sleet for Friday for my part of the world (South Yorkshire) from Sunday until this morning. I've just checked the latest update and it's gone.....

Edited December 2, 2020 by Premier Neige

[Methuselah]

What a stonker! The 06Z has reinforced the potential trend suggested by the 00Z... Will it deliver?

    

Might the snow shovel, I suggested my son-in-law purchase in 2018, finally come in useful!

[Tim Bland]

I wouldn’t rule out some sleet / wet snow as early as tomorrow. Euro 4 shows the below which is probably way OTT given the parameters but certainly high ground has a good chance... 

[Paul_1978]

10 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

This is beautiful, and only 15 days away as well.

If it turns out like that, I’ll bare my a**e on the town hall steps!!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

If it turns out like that, I’ll bare my a**e on the town hall steps!!

Possibly not the best place for an accumulation?

[Nick F]

Good things come for those who wait as the saying goes.

00z EPS mean indicates Greenland height rises toward mid-month, maybe sooner, while good support from the EPS clusters.

The 06z GFS going down this route, which opens up the arctic floodgates for deep cold to drop south. Much water to flow under the bridge before this possibility, but we're in a good position going forward to reach this potential.

But, next 7-10 days, a chilly stretch persisting, with UK like staying on the north side of the PF jet, with lows sliding SE or ESE bringing rain or sleet for most but also some hill snow. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Nick F

[Weathizard]

Russian heights and stalled pressure systems stuck over or nearby the U.K. with plentiful phasing across the Atlantic, now where have I seen that before?

 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, until I see that pattern breaking within reliable time we are stuck in a yuk pattern with my least favourite winter weather (Dull, cold and showery)

Edited December 2, 2020 by Weathizard