Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[carinthian]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Thanks mate!!!thats 5-10cms widely down the spine of the country!!i take that!!although im sure it will be wrong

Yes, very interesting end of week coming up for you guys. Good luck. Fine margins to predict snow and even where it falls. Anywhere could get some with such widespread cold unstable conditions to become established over NW Europe over the coming days, especially in the heart of the Kingdom.

C

[georgiedre]

Models are still a bit all over the place which probably means a lot can and will change. Also noticed the meto have changed their outlook to a dry settled towards the nw.  Until the end of the month high pressure there is surely good news

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I really cant see low ground along the thames here having 5cms+ I cant even imagine anything settling but I really hope this is right! Although BBC.has.Dartford with rain showers now all sleet symbols removed- Is it.just ECM and Icon that show snow for London and the Thames Estuary?

Icon doesn’t show snow for se 

[weirpig]

Very little snow about  on the arp  and icon  more of a wintry mix  and rain for most    peak district and high ground may see the white stuff.

[Eagle Eye]

The height of the 0c Isotherm is showing

Signs showing of a big Easternly ridge, any sign of it coming West and i'm partying.

I'm Partying!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

For me there are once again plenty of cold ensembles from GFS, and a fair few showing more Intense colder pools to our NE as we go out further into the month... Secondly  a bit concerned about everyone ordering from Amazon! No wonder the High Streets are in such a mess.. I've chosen to order mine from the Government website... I've been told the goods should arrive this month, but may be subject to travel restrictions which could hold it up a little longer! Ohh and when it does arrive I've been told to only view from a distance and not to mingle in the GARDEN!!! 

Ohh and be quick with your orders, the website crashed this morning...

The cold snap is still alive so I'm happy.. 

[Anthony Burden]

Still differences on low pressure tracks as they make their way over the country and away.

Will make exciting watch for snow lovers.Further down the track will pressure rise to the north.

The key to extending cold with an added bite.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Anthony Burden said:

Still differences on low pressure tracks as they make their way over the country and away.

Will make exciting watch for snow lovers.Further down the track will pressure rise to the north.

The key to extending cold with an added bite.

Gfs is quite similar to the ecm in terms of track!!gfs is just 5mb less deep!!

[snowking]

I think both the models and quite a lot of people in here are overplaying snowfall potential on lower ground - although admittedly we don't get to see the key parameters for some of them that determine the rainfall/snowfall boundary.

But if, for example, the Euro4 is anywhere close to the mark:

Then away from higher ground, there is little prospect of any snow.

Looking at the GFS-derived NMM, we see a similar picture:

It's not until precipitation reaches the uplands of Northern England/Scotland that we start to see any appreciable snowfall:

 

As previously stated we don't get to see the DP's (or even better, the Wet Bulb Freezing Level) for the ECM, but unless it is drastically different to much of the rest of the output, I struggle to see much in the way of snow below at least 200m.

That said, we're a few days away - time for some improvements still

[nick sussex]

Upstream the GFS shows no interest at all in the ECM solution . Given we’re talking about within T96 hrs , tonight one model is going to suffer a humiliating climbdown .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs is quite similar to the ecm in terms of track!!gfs is just 5mb less deep!!

very little for Midlands on this, goes all around us, I know FI still snow wise

[Anthony Burden]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs is quite similar to the ecm in terms of track!!gfs is just 5mb less deep!!

Yes but UKMO at 120hrs shows southeast track.

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, snowking said:

I think both the models and quite a lot of people in here are overplaying snowfall potential on lower ground - although admittedly we don't get to see the key parameters for some of them that determine the rainfall/snowfall boundary.

But if, for example, the Euro4 is anywhere close to the mark:

Then away from higher ground, there is little prospect of any snow.

Looking at the GFS-derived NMM, we see a similar picture:

It's not until precipitation reaches the uplands of Northern England/Scotland that we start to see any appreciable snowfall:

 

As previously stated we don't get to see the DP's (or even better, the Wet Bulb Freezing Level) for the ECM, but unless it is drastically different to much of the rest of the output, I struggle to see much in the way of snow below at least 200m.

That said, we're a few days away - time for some improvements still

It's always best to keep you're expectations low especially with the uncertainty 

I know where I'm placing my bets too...

[Eagle Eye]

Skew-t interesting, Temperature on there seems Normal for this time of year but a high Dewpoint compared to the rest. Not much else though nothing Christmassy.

Maybe Christmassy.

Probably not but a few showing an Easternly ridge spanning over the North Sea, very close to us and 2018 may not have been the biggest snowy  years but we may have another one of those.

Edited December 2, 2020 by XanderP007

[Yarmy]

Just to emphasise these early upstream differences, if you reside in New England and follow the GFS then Sunday morning is largely uneventful:

 

But, if you follow the ECM, it's time to batten down the hatches:

 

[Eagle Eye]

I've heard of many an Easternly ridge, we're caught in a Westernly one, Deep Purples all over, A big Cold Snap.

[carinthian]

24 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yes, very interesting end of week coming up for you guys. Good luck. Fine margins to predict snow and even where it falls. Anywhere could get some with such widespread cold unstable conditions to become established over NW Europe over the coming days, especially in the heart of the Kingdom.

C

Very difficult to predict in this set up where snow will fall or settle to low ground. Certainly in cold unstable air mass , the warmer layer of air mass is shallow and during heavy precipitation evaporation will cause cooling and snow could fall . However, the million dollar question , where, when and how widespread ? Even the super fine mesh snow model we have access to over here would struggle to provide results, especially as almost all of the British Isles lies below 400m and never much more than 100km from the sea. So much easier for snow forecasting for us in the Eastern Alps with most of the region above 1000m, almost snow assured in this set up, even our main city of Salzburg is 400m absl. So yes , a difficult job for UK weather forecasts to get the predict  snow spot on , hence always a potential in their forecasts rather than what the daily run of snow charts show.

C

[DIS1970]

Best not to expect anything really - flakes falling that is, a few maybe surprised, it is the UK after all.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, DIS1970 said:

Best not to expect anything really - flakes falling that is, a few maybe surprised, it is the UK after all.

Yep  think you will be right  a few flakes   Altitude as always on this island will be key.

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Best not to expect anything really - flakes falling that is, a few maybe surprised, it is the UK after all.

It's unfortunate that sadly in basic terms it's just not cold enough for widespread snowfall on the majority of models 

It's been hyped as that though 

Would definitely liked to be proved wrong and see some amazing snowfall in the coming days 

[Eagle Eye]

We've got the low pressure.

In Pockets Temperature backing it up.

 

We've Got SNOW!

[Sky Full]

59 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hi could anyone post the latest ecm high resolution snow depth charts please for friday and saturday if possible?!!

It seems a little surreal to be checking snow depth charts on the 2nd December!   How often does that happen?   Anyway, best make full use of the occasion while we can because it might not happen again for quite a while .   So here are the ‘accumulated snowfall’ charts up to midnight Saturday from ICON, GEM and ECMWF high res.    HEALTH AND SAFETY WARNING:  Just for fun, of course......

 

Best you head for the Scottish mountains if you really need to see some proper snowfall this weekend....

 

[Eagle Eye]

No Complaints anymore everything's lining up and we've still got about 4 months until the Snow season falls away, An Easternly and Westernly ridge is setting up camp, slowly coming towards us, I would say that we're in for an overlapping cold spell, the South East will get it early and don't worry anybody in the West you're get the best of it later on in The Year and the rest of you, you'll get the bBulk of your Snow From Scotland.

Edited December 2, 2020 by XanderP007

[Chesil View]

19 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Best not to expect anything really - flakes falling that is, a few maybe surprised, it is the UK after all.

Best way to be DIS1970. Then at least you can always be pleasantly surprised.  Hope rather than expectation has got me through many a winter in southern England. 

Having said that there have been very few where I haven't seen any flakes fall at all.  Settling snow on the other hand is a different thing altogether.

Edited December 2, 2020 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Can we all get back to MODEL discussion please. Different threads for will it snow?.

 

literally the post after was about snow but anyway

This is why nobody is posting them anymore, that heat is unbearable for Winter.