Netweather Winter Forecast 2020/2021

[Paul]

The Netweather Winter forecast has just been issued. Written again by Ian Simpson aka @Thundery wintry showers, the forecast headlines are:

• Overall, temperatures are forecast to be milder than average

• December expected to be the coldest month with close to or slightly colder than average temperatures

• 70-80% likely to be a wetter than average Winter

• January and February forecast to be the wettest months

You can read it in full here:

Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2020/21 | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Thanks as ever to Ian, for the time and effort it takes to put this together  

[Radiating Dendrite]

Not going to be popular round these parts!

With so many now plumping for a SSW, this could be up there with the infamous BBQ summer forecast (or you could be completely right - hopefully not)

 

[Matty88]

You'd be a fool to write this forecast off and it does seem concerning... but as they say, in weather, nothing is certain ! That's the beauty of it 

That said... I'd rather a front loaded winter than a back loaded one for sure! 

[Snow lover 2020]

Hmmm we’ll see. I think it will be a cold winter 

[festivalking]

Follows closely to the Met office winter forecast (expect for the potential snowy end to december) I'd suggest that if you like colder than average temperatures now is the time to make the most of it!

[Premiere Neige]

Hopefully this forecast is a bust!! (Sorry). It seems to suggest a strong La Nina but current indications are that it will be moderate at most. With regard to QBO, there are plenty of cold winters during westerly QBO. Also, the atmosphere isn't particularly reflecting a typical la nina state and we also have the strat and troo failing to couple. Add to that the potential for an SSW and I don't think this winter is as cut and dried as it may seem...

[summer blizzard]

I largely agree with this forecast and the reasoning personally. Cold prospects are highest in December and March for me. 

[mushymanrob]

Personally i was disappointed with it, because i have a hunch based on the current synoptic pattern , that theres a higher then average chance of something cold. There are simularities to december 78, 85, both of which heralded a proper cold winter.

Me turned a cold lover?... lol... im a blogger, snow is good for business! lol. Besides, i believe we should have a wintry spell in winter, whether i like cold or not.

(disappointed because it doesnt confirm my hunch, its reasoning and conclusions are sound as far as little old me is concerned)

[Mike Poole]

Thanks for the forecast @Thundery wintry showers, and I agree with the analysis for December, and I also expect the midwinter period to be mild wet and windy.  But this forecast doesn’t even entertain the possibility of a SSW delivering a cold February, which I think is significant possibility this year.  As with all these things, we’ll know all by March 1st! 

[johnholmes]

A well constructed forecast there Ian. An awful lot of work has gone into it. Thank you. The proof as is usually the case is to be found on

1 March!

[Dancerwithwings]

Thumbs up from me for December and if I have to forgo Jan/Feb to see SNOW ️ on Christmas Day....it shall be 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Given the effect of Covid-19 we need a mild winter.

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Given the effect of Covid-19 we need a mild winter.

I would disagree with that, Covid seems to like cool and humidity, and is most comfortable at 4C.  Cold would be preferable, the normal mild mush cold rain fest is the absolute last thing we need this year.  

[Don]

Thanks for the forecast, Ian.  Rather similar to the TWO winter forecast actually.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I would disagree with that, Covid seems to like cool and humidity, and is most comfortable at 4C.  Cold would be preferable, the normal mild mush cold rain fest is the absolute last thing we need this year.  

Actually, Coronaviruses can withstand freezer storage, and humid air causes aerosolised droplets to fall out of the atmosphere indoors more rapidly.

[Radiating Dendrite]

15 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Actually, Coronaviruses can withstand freezer storage, and humid air causes aerosolised droplets to fall out of the atmosphere indoors more rapidly.

Is this what the pandemic has drove us to - discussing aerosolised droplets

Whatever is better for Covid is likely what we will end up with! At least we have the vaccine hope now.