Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Flake news]

I'm not sure why people are so downhearted, there was definitely chips of ice in the heavy rain last night.  I for one won't be forgetting The Great Easterly Of 2021 in a hurry.

[John88B]

I swear, reading through many of the comments, a lot of people believe we live within the arctic circle. I remember many of the winters of the late 70's and 80's and believe me not a lot has changed. People bang on as if winters of the past were days of endless cold weather with copious amounts of snow. They weren't! 

Some perspective is much needed.

[stainesbloke]

45 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Time for folk to wake up and smell the coffee instead of fantasising on charts that aren’t going to happen.

As for significant snowfall for southern areas this looks to be something that could disappear over time with global warming.

Significant snowfall has always been rare for southern areas. Nothing new there. I grew up in the 70’s and 80’s in lowland Staines, Middlesex and snow was a rare visitor even then (hence the extreme over-excitement when it did occur). While there isn’t much on offer at the moment for the south, there’s plenty of winter left and an SSW to consider, so I wouldn’t write off winter, just yet. 

[John88B]

To add to my post about winters past, an example of how not a lot has changed even long before the winters of the 70s and 80s that I can remember.

At 5.0c December 2020 shares the same mean CET with December's:

1660

1663

1668

1717

1729

1999

[sebastiaan1973]

wrong topic

Edited January 3, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[Andrew snow hope]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Game over unless a miracle happens now!

It was always going to be pathetic for southern areas from a weak northerly setup!

 

 

Have to say, this has been ramped since before Christmas . It has been lovely and cold and snow for some but it has not been a memorable “boom” “would sell my soul” moment at all really has it. I wish that some of the more knowledgeable posters on here would challenge peoples forecasts with insight and knowledge and perhaps calm the kids who just want snow snow snow.

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, John88B said:

I swear, reading through many of the comments, a lot of people believe we live within the arctic circle. I remember many of the winters of the late 70's and 80's and believe me not a lot has changed. People bang on as if winters of the past were days of endless cold weather with copious amounts of snow. They weren't! 

Some perspective is much needed.

Even the 1960s, Kew Gardens recorded no official snow cover during  1960-61 and 1966-67 and that includes anything during autumn and the following spring. 

[Flake news]

44 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Even the 1960s, Kew Gardens recorded no official snow cover during  1960-61 and 1966-67 and that includes anything during autumn and the following spring. 

Did these winters have high pressure to the north, in the heart of winter?  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, one way or the other said:

Did these winters have high pressure to the north, in the heart of winter?  

It’s like comparing apples with oranges with the amount of changes that have taken place in the arctic circle due to global warming.

 

Even the Met Office recently hinted that snow could become a thing of the past in south U.K. over time if things continue the way they are!

[Guest]

So far I have beaten every forecaster on the model thread, by simply being realistic and pragmatic with the data.

[mathematician]

1 hour ago, one way or the other said:

I'm not sure why people are so downhearted, there was definitely chips of ice in the heavy rain last night.  I for one won't be forgetting The Great Easterly Of 2021 in a hurry.

Lol 

[snow mad]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is that even a suprise ?

Let's enjoy the next 4 or 5 days of wintry weather...

Without being dramatic though its not a good morning NWP wise..

Hasn’t even been wintry here yet. One frost. Some fog now looking at some drizzle. What a shame.

[weathercold]

I sense a key lesson learnt here is how quickly the tide can turn across NWP and not to get carried away by wintry charts days ahead which often don't verify. 
The atmosphere is clearly highly volatile at the moment but even taking this into consideration, the flip has been quite something.

Let’s hope the SSW can restore some hope further down the line. Here in London we await our first flake of snow this winter....

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by weathercold

[sebastiaan1973]

2 minutes ago, weathercold said:

I sense a key lesson learnt here is how quickly the tide can turn across NWP and not to get carried away by wintry charts days ahead which often don't verify. 
The atmosphere is clearly highly volatile at the moment but even taking this into consideration, the flip has been quite something.

Let’s hope the SSW can restore some hope further down the line. Here in London we await our first flake of snow this winter....

 

In the area of Amsterdam we too are still waiting for the white magic to come by.

[Bradley in Kent]

2 hours ago, John88B said:

To add to my post about winters past, an example of how not a lot has changed even long before the winters of the 70s and 80s that I can remember.

At 5.0c December 2020 shares the same mean CET with December's:

1660

1663

1668

1717

1729

1999

I totally agree with this in relation to winters past. 

We as humans have a tendency to only remember memorable things which in this case are cold winters. 

I'm not saying winters haven't changed because they have, but to a much lesser extent than people will say. My Grandad will have you believe that when he was a child every Christmas was white and the hedgerows got buried by February  and how now our climate is sub-tropical. However he never mentions December 2010 which saw the most widespread white Christmas or March 2013 where many farmers lost some of their livestock in big drifts. Of course last winter was a classic case of conformation bias.

At the end of the day, (or winter!), UK winters have been below par if you want snow for many years. Even during the little ice age, the cold was interspersed with mild spells.

Whether it's looking at models, predicting climate change or predicting any other trend for that matter, it'll less extreme than predicted.

P.S. I love my Grandad very much!

Edited January 3, 2021 by Bradley in Kent
Typo

[hurricane-anna]

I feel so so sorry for anyone new in here trying to learn, some will just be here hoping to find an insight of what the weather is doing, those who cant yet read models etc.. luckily ivebeen watching models and weather pattens since the good old days of the bbc forum what a place.. I have to say in the past few weeks this place is more depressing than the local shrinks office.. stop taking every run as gospel, snowmageddon, 62/63 type winter, colder than the north pole, then all of a sudden it's nearly spring, winter is off, let's wait till next year, then wow snowmageddon seriously, take a break and enjoy the current cold spell, we would have been dreaming for these synoptics last year, some of u dont know when u have got a good thing right in front of you... personally I wont be leaving as I know how to stay level headed..  but my word theres a lot of people I'm ignoring..

For all you newbies, weather watching is very much like a rollercoaster, but this is the 1st year I've ever seen mr bean take over the controls.  Hang on in there, ignore all the o.t.t posts and enjoy the current pattern, it really is exciting.. good things are to come I feel

Happy new year to you all..

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, John88B said:

I swear, reading through many of the comments, a lot of people believe we live within the arctic circle. I remember many of the winters of the late 70's and 80's and believe me not a lot has changed. People bang on as if winters of the past were days of endless cold weather with copious amounts of snow. They weren't! 

Some perspective is much needed.

It has been noted that Children remember more Snow than there was, note that Snow days are still around the Same as well.

[JoeShmoe]

45 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

 As usual Edinburgh will get hammered with a stream of showers but like in the south east will it be cold enough?

 

Well it’s raining here today now the wind has swung into the east, uppers here without altitude not really cold enough . Can’t complain as had snow falling the last 4 or 5 days but might on the wrong side of marginal now without the deep pool of cold air to the east ...

[Continental Climate]

50 minutes ago, DCee said:

So far I have beaten every forecaster on the model thread, by simply being realistic and pragmatic with the data.

Get yourself over there then and share your wonderous knowledge with us. In you we clearly have a forecaster with a rare talent indeed. 

[John88B]

45 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

It has been noted that Children remember more Snow than there was, note that Snow days are still around the Same as well.

Exactly Sheldon. The brain remembers the cold, snowy winters and the long, hot  summers, like the summer of 76 for example, but forgets all the mundane, normal weather in between. This fools us into believing every childhood winter was cold and snowy and every summer was a long and hot.

The truth is that 95% of our weather is rather dull and mundane.

[StormyLincs]

4 minutes ago, John88B said:

Exactly Sheldon. The brain remembers the cold, snowy winters and the long, hot  summers, like the summer of 76 for example, but forgets all the mundane, normal weather in between. This fools us into believing every childhood winter was cold and snowy and every summer was a long and hot.

The truth is that 95% of our weather is rather dull and mundane.

You are so right. I remember all my five high school years in the 70’s being almost totally snowless give an odd flurry. I don’t recall and proper lying snow at all. Things really aren’t so different now. 

[claret047]

1 hour ago, DCee said:

So far I have beaten every forecaster on the model thread, by simply being realistic and pragmatic with the data.

Perhaps for us novices you would be kind enough to explain how you have been victorious in respect of  weather events that will or will not happen. To my untutored eyes it looks as if the GFS is still going with prolonging our cold spell and indeed intensifying it while the ECM & UKMO indicate a warming up and to some degree a return to Atlantic domination.  We do not know which is correct, but can only best guess.

I am old enough to remember the 1962/63 winter and the Met Office continually forecast a return to milder weather, but the USA long range forecasts did not and guess which were correct? 

Kind Regards

Dave

[StormyLincs]

1 hour ago, DCee said:

So far I have beaten every forecaster on the model thread, by simply being realistic and pragmatic with the data.

It’s not difficult is it considering some of the ridiculous posts I’ve read on there. Realistic and pragmatic is the way forward. That’s why I prefer this thread over the MOD.

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

I am in a similar location Steve but for the short term seems to me the Beeb are definitely saying rain. I notice they say unsettled later this week so perhaps some hope there. I have been watching these models for probably 15- 20 years myself and, based on no scientific knowledge (which is why I prefer to just read what knowledgeable posters like yourself and a few others say) whatsoever, seemingly when it comes to winter prospects unless it is in the T72 range the chances of things going "wrong" are quite high. The almost total flip around in the models (ECM/UKMO) last night v this morning being just another example. Like I say though no scientific knowledge at all to back up that judgement.         

BEEB change there forecast every day - don’t take it literally, they tend to use old data too.

BEEB never get things right especially temps!

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

BEEB change there forecast every day - don’t take it literally, they tend to use old data too.

BEEB never get things right especially temps!

Well it would certainly be great to see them get it wrong this time. Hasn't it often been said that they have access to data the public don't get to see ?