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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Keep an eye on the track of this precipitation it's full of heavy snow. Anyone who's under its track will get a surprise covering.

    2081659612_Screenshot_2021-01-02WeatherRadar-LiveUKRainfallRadar-5MinuteUpdates-Netweather(1).thumb.png.eb764b7423969c8e91b63aae73f1f085.png

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

    Not looking good for the South East next week as usual according to the BBC with Monday seeing longer spells of rain in Kent and mainly dry here in Berkshire but cold.

     

    What a waste of winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wokingham
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny summers and snowy winters
  • Location: Wokingham
    45 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Not looking good for the South East next week as usual according to the BBC with Monday seeing longer spells of rain in Kent and mainly dry here in Berkshire but cold.

     

    What a waste of winter.

    Feel for those on here who've wasted 10s of hours studying pointless model output in attempts to find something that will never happen. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I'm actually pretty optimistic.

    Using the analogues of Jan 09, 12 (it produced the same impact even if not a technical SSW) and 13 the primary impact was a roughly two week severe cold spell (snowy or not) about 10 days after the event followed by about a month of high pressure.

    This suggests that if anything we might expect the greatest impact in the second half of Jan followed by a dry Feb (they diverge afterwards).

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    50 minutes ago, username home said:

    Feel for those on here who've wasted 10s of hours studying pointless model output in attempts to find something that will never happen. 

    ‘Pointless model output’? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
    1 hour ago, username home said:

    Feel for those on here who've wasted 10s of hours studying pointless model output in attempts to find something that will never happen. 

    Especially those who sit up the entire night waiting for the 0z! If you actually rewind the posts to 10 days behind you'll see how delusional it constantly all really is compared to what actually happens at T0.

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
    1 hour ago, Rapodo said:

    Especially those who sit up the entire night waiting for the 0z! If you actually rewind the posts to 10 days behind you'll see how delusional it constantly all really is compared to what actually happens at T0.

    Twas ever thus ...

    Having said that large parts of the UK have seen falling and lying snow in the last week

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Over in northern Ireland, we've had a Northerly airstream for nearly a week and it's produced mostly rain.

    Global warming at work.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
    12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Over in northern Ireland, we've had a Northerly airstream for nearly a week and it's produced mostly rain.

    Global warming at work.

    Or high DP

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, Gypo said:

    Or high DP

    Caused by?

    The problem is, the source of the cold air, East of Greenland is 3 or 4 degrees above average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wokingham
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny summers and snowy winters
  • Location: Wokingham
    2 hours ago, Mac_SE said:

    ‘Pointless model output’? 

    You know what I mean. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

    We've had the same source mate, I've seen countless videos of snow in NI.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    Keep an eye on the track of this precipitation it's full of heavy snow. Anyone who's under its track will get a surprise covering.

     

    Yes, a band of wintry hazards is steadily making its way down the spine of the country although weakening all the time, might be either rain sleet or snow in a few mins when it hits either, wouldn't want to make a call on what, although most definitely will make a call that it wont be sticking around for very long.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    16 minutes ago, Gypo said:

    We've had the same source mate, I've seen countless videos of snow in NI.

    Indeed you have mate, had some myself.

    It was fleeting and melted almost immediately. 

    The reality is, the source of the air is above average leading to marginal situations.

    I mean it's 5 degrees here at near 500 feet in a Northerly airstream, in mid Winter, with 850s of -6.

    That just ain't right.

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr

    Compare the charts now to this time last year and the year before that. All my friends complaining about how cold it is and everywhere north of the Midlands seems to have had snow. You wouldn’t know it on here though. More depressing than the Covid thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    1 minute ago, Duncan McAlister said:

    Compare the charts now to this time last year and the year before that. All my friends complaining about how cold it is and everywhere north of the Midlands seems to have had snow. You wouldn’t know it on here though. More depressing than the Covid thread.

    Perhaps all those who are currently receiving, or have only received, cold rain and temps a bit below average (circa 4c) should go outside and enjoy the thrill of a chilly shower then?

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    well i think we are close to calling this a winter a bust regarding deep cold and snowy conditions, the 10 day charts of promise at least got to within 5 days, lol, nothing but rain and cloud here for the next 5 days, chilly yes, cold certainly not.  lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    Why are we seeing 'The wheels are off posts' 3 days before an SSW even starts? 😄

    Sorry but there needs to be some frank reminders and realistic thinking in here.

    If you are talking odds wise - the chances of having a 2 week cold spell that for example, would be notable enough to remember in 10 years without an SSW is probably 1000/1, WITH an SSW it's probably 100/1. 

    Not sure how many 100/1 bankers I can recall happening in my life? You still need absolutely everything to go our way, an SSW can bring all forms of weather, it's arguably as likely to be bad for the UK as it is good. 

    Frankly, the key thing here - the most important thing is that a handful of people forecasted an SSW against all seasonal models. Taps on the back and a brilliant forecast by those people. However, what actually happens after an SSW is the bit that nobody can predict, forecast, worry about etc. 

    So how can the wheels be coming off something that's not happened or may not ever happen? 😄

    I'm absolutely hoping as much as anyone that we get a repeating bitterly cold spell lasting from now until April, but from a genuine health aspect of this thread and the future of this thread - it might be better if this SSW is a complete failure in terms of bringing cold. Perhaps next year the entire thread could focus on current weather and not be diluted by 'Ignore tonight's charts, there's an SSW forecast for 8 weeks time mate, come back then for the boom charts'. 

    As I mentioned I can completely understand why, but for me SSW's are the largest 'Jam tomorrow bait' that we can possibly have in this country. Not because people ramp, or forecast Armageddon as such - but because all conversation is so overtly positive that it's only natural expectations are built up.

    SSW's are also long, drawn out, very fickle and quite often change at that last minute to become weaker/shorter lasting (as has happened this week). They also allow people to ignore the here and now and brush over crap current output, the likes that we had to put up with for the entire of December just because 'don't worry an SSW is happening in 6 weeks mate' - nonsense IMO. 

    We need to stop worrying about something that is 100/1 to happen and focus on the fact that 2/3 days ago next week looked wet, now it looks white for a vast majority. Should next week be snowy then that would be virtually 2 weeks of frosty nights, cold days and snow opportunities for virtually the entire country. 

    This WOULD represent a longer, colder and snowier spell for the UK than in most winters....it's just that nobody is taking any notice. 

    As I mentioned before....the last few days and next 10 days will provide the coldest, longest and snowiest period of winter IMO - ignore it and you will miss winter.

    Edited by PolarWarsaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr
    4 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Perhaps all those who are currently receiving, or have only received, cold rain and temps a bit below average (circa 4c) should go outside and enjoy the thrill of a chilly shower then?

    Do they *know* it’s only going to be ‘chilly showers’ for the rest of the winter? What about the northerlies on the GFS at 7-10 days, can you be sure they won’t deliver at the last minute? The post below writing off the whole winter? Come on!

    I mean, I’m in a place that’s well used to ‘spectacular’ setups like the Beast from the East disappointing on the snow front so maybe I’m looking at it from a different POV, but I’d rather have reliable, seasonal charts that deliver a few surprises, even if not in my own back yard, than be heartbroken by ‘the chart of a generation’ blah blah.

    If people would rather three months of constant rain, SW gales and 12c than the current seasonal mix then you do you I guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    24 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    If you are talking odds wise - the chances of having a 2 week cold spell that for example, would be notable enough to remember in 10 years without an SSW is probably 1000/1, WITH an SSW it's probably 100/1. 

    How can a winter notable enough to remember in 10 years only have 100/1 odds to happen in any given winter even with an SSW?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Your odds are laughably off. So you are saying in an average winter, the chance of a memorable cold spell is 1 in a 1000 years, where do you think we are North Africa? A SSW markedly increases our chances, you only have to look back to recent ones 2009, 2013. 2018 all with La Niña backdrop likewise this one. The January 2019 SSW didn’t couple that wasn’t La Niña, this one is expected to couple, there isn’t a blockage of strong westerlies lower down in trop. The literature says El Niño is better for SSW and coupling but in 21stC it’s been La Niña all the way.  

    I'm not a bookies pal, you know exactly the point I'm trying to make.

    I was also referencing a 2 week spell, not an entire winter. Any given 2 week spell of a 3 month winter, yes - 1000/1 isn't a bad shout. 

    Simple fact, SSW's increase the chances of cold - they aren't guaranteed, they don't help keep expectations low and they are an incredibly fickle (but fun) thing to understand and watch unfold. 

    There is absolutely no mention in my post of an SSW failing, more the fact that experienced members are throwing the towel in weeks before you would potentially see an increased chance of cold, snowy charts. Something that hasn't and is likely to NEVER happen - so how can the wheels have fallen off something that doesn't exist? It can't/they can't. 

    Ironically, better looking wintry charts than usual are unfolding before +T120, but they are barely getting a mention, just seems foolish to me. As Steve mentioned this morning this forum is hilarious. 

    When cold shows at 2 weeks, everyone can't wait to jump on how unlikely they are and to take them with a pinch of salt. You could then have a 1963 style January but the first sign of 850's getting below -10 at T384 and people are fretting about the breakdown, it's over, mild, ENS, GEFS, eps, winter is over. Nonsense.

    Be all, end all - SSW may bring cold, it may not - calling a spell of modelling that's not even happened and may never happen isn't just silly, it's impossible.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    How can a winter notable enough to remember in 10 years only have 100/1 odds to happen in any given winter even with an SSW?

    Re-read it. 

    You are completely mixed up.

    Even with an SSW, the UK is a tiny island on the edge of the Atlantic, surrounded by sea's at every border. 

    An SSW still needs a lot to fall our way to provide. 

    Do people genuinely believe/think that an SSW is this likely to bring Armageddon to the UK?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    4 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Re-read it. 

    You are completely mixed up.

    Even with an SSW, the UK is a tiny island on the edge of the Atlantic, surrounded by sea's at every border. 

    An SSW still needs a lot to fall our way to provide. 

    Do people genuinely believe/think that an SSW is this likely to bring Armageddon to the UK?

    Above, @chionomaniac showed how the SSW that is certainly going to happen in the next few days, is already showing its influence in the model output, not in deep FI, but at nearer timeframes already. Indeed we do not know exactly how that will work out for us, but at least we have a decent chance.

    As for SSW's in general. They do not always work in our favour, that's true, but 100/1 means that for every 100 SSW's, only one will bring us a cold spell of two weeks or more (That's how I read your odds). Our odds are definitely much better than that, wouldn't you agree? Just three years ago we had a SSW induced cold end to winter. In the past 20 years we can point at many more good cold spells that were the result of an SSW.

    So, yes, I agree that we should enjoy any winter weather we currently have, but do not throw out what might happen after this SSW.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    12 minutes ago, 2010 said:

    But only talking about current weather defeats the object of the thread. There are other places to discuss current conditions. The model output thread is highly enjoyable and utterly frustrating at times but that is why we come back year after year. 

    Absolutely, I'm not trying to suggest not talking about it. 

    My point is, there needs to be more balance between now and what has a long shot chance of happening weeks ahead.

    This thread is great and I wouldn't want it any other way. But when people start dismissing weeks and weeks of winter and then using something that 'might' or 'could' happen in the future as a reason why, people are actually missing the weather that's happening.

    This week and next week are a perfect example.

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