Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[summer blizzard]

9 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

I think it's just frustration tinged with impatience SB

With the current sort of set-up, I would be expecting at least -12 uppers with frequent snow showers into my part of Kent.

Instead, with the projected Easterly we are only going to see wintry showers most of which are likely to be rain or sleet!  

Most easterlies in my experience tend to produce more moisture than forecast and are 90% snow. I'd not be thatl worried.

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Barmada_Casten said:

The beginning of the breakdown begins.....past experience tells me that more than anything else begins. Been here way too many times to even care! A brief cold snap yes, but nothing in terms of widespread snowfall ahead. Oh well it was entertaining at least! WE will never learn.......Happy new year folks!

 

You said this on Boxing Day in the NW regional thread

". Once again, any decent snowfall will be in the east, Kent etc the usual places........Anyway the punchline is the north west ain’t getting anything firing this so do t get your hopes up!"

9 miles SW of Manchester, only 20m asl,  5th consecutive day with snow cover. 

[James1979]

Minus 6 last night, 2c today, current precipitation = rain. Cant thunder in summer, can't snow in winter, once again into the waiting for years zone for some measly snow. Other than the recent floods here (rare in the cambs desert) almost nothing exciting weather wise since I moved here 3 years ago, what a boring cr*p hole for a weather enthusiast. NY resolution is to quit this 'hobby'once and for all. Oh for the old days.

[SLEETY]

Easterly trending colder now,so looks like models factored in too much Med influence,even the mild ramping BBC forecasters have dropped the temps down a notch now for next week,bit like their credibility probably go down even further as we get nearer reality and the temps as well

[summer blizzard]

A lot of the snow has melted here today, may have survived on the fields though.

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Think some insane runs will appear in the next few days,their been hints of it recently,the Minus 15 line should me making an appearance in some of the ops in the coming days,can the servers handle the overload incoming.

 

I tried that during the Beast from the East.....The wife got soaked and I got a black eye!

[Mac_SE]

Wondering if the person in the model thread who boldly announced less than a week ago that this winter would 'be historic' and rank behind '47 and '63, is still standing behind their claim...?

That thread, year after year, is still chock full of people BOOMing and BANKing on models 7 days out as though they are actual forecasts, who then throw their toys out when things don't verify 

[AdrianHull]

Day 10, Day 10, Day 10.....

Any chance of a day 10 thread mods?

[AdrianHull]

16 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

Wondering if the person in the model thread who boldly announced less than a week ago that this winter would 'be historic' and rank behind '47 and '63, is still standing behind their claim...?

That thread, year after year, is still chock full of people BOOMing and BANKing on models 7 days out as though they are actual forecasts, who then throw their toys out when things don't verify 

10 days not 7

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, James1979 said:

Minus 6 last night, 2c today, current precipitation = rain. Cant thunder in summer, can't snow in winter, once again into the waiting for years zone for some measly snow. Other than the recent floods here (rare in the cambs desert) almost nothing exciting weather wise since I moved here 3 years ago, what a boring cr*p hole for a weather enthusiast. NY resolution is to quit this 'hobby'once and for all. Oh for the old days.

Cant thunder in summer?  2020 wishes to have a word

[James1979]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

Cant thunder in summer?  2020 wishes to have a word

For you maybe, for me it was dire once again, a few scraps.

[Barmada_Casten]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

You said this on Boxing Day in the NW regional thread

". Once again, any decent snowfall will be in the east, Kent etc the usual places........Anyway the punchline is the north west ain’t getting anything firing this so do t get your hopes up!"

9 miles SW of Manchester, only 20m asl,  5th consecutive day with snow cover. 

In what was a very localised event! What exactly are you trying to prove?!

[Smokeone]

Wellesbourne airfield has a dew point of -38 according to XCWEATHER. 

[AderynCoch]

4 hours ago, MP-R said:

I think you’ll find the air being sourced in the Med will also have adverse effects across the continent, perhaps more so being closer to the source. We’re not alone.

Exactly. From a purely selfish point of view this stagnant low pressure over Western Europe has been a winter-killer because I'm on the wrong side, stuck under slack southerlies. Needless to say I'd take a pattern reset right now!

[DanDorsetUK]

2 hours ago, AdrianHull said:

Day 10, Day 10, Day 10.....

Any chance of a day 10 thread mods?

Think that's exactly what's needed. 1 to 5 day model Discussion for more in detail accurate forecasts, and a 5 day to fi model Discussion for potential.

The storm we just had was a perfect example. Hardly any discussion of what would happen at ground level. Then all of a sudden we have a storm on our doorsteps with 80mph gusts along the south without realising or any real discussion about it.

It would stop this forum from becoming just the fi chasing model Discussion.

 

[AdrianHull]

17 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Think that's exactly what's needed. 1 to 5 day model Discussion for more in detail accurate forecasts, and a 5 day to fi model Discussion for potential.

The storm we just had was a perfect example. Hardly any discussion of what would happen at ground level. Then all of a sudden we have a storm on our doorsteps with 80mph gusts along the south without realising or any real discussion about it.

It would stop this forum from becoming just the fi chasing model Discussion.

 

Couldn't agree more! I'm not interested in the fine details of day 10 charts apart from the trend. But it's obsessed over and over to the point of the reliable timeframe getting diluted with FL charts! 

[Guest]

More showers inbound and we’re in for our third or fourth spell of 1-2c and rain. Dreadful cold spell really. Given how poorly the models have performed with precipitation 3-5days out I have very little expectation of anything wintery other than frost here. 

[Guest]

Yes pretty awful models if you want a decent fall of snow. It's sleet and cold rain midlands south. Then chances are Atlantic attacks from SW.

[mathematician]

2 hours ago, Rapodo said:

Think that's exactly what's needed. 1 to 5 day model Discussion for more in detail accurate forecasts, and a 5 day to fi model Discussion for potential.

The storm we just had was a perfect example. Hardly any discussion of what would happen at ground level. Then all of a sudden we have a storm on our doorsteps with 80mph gusts along the south without realising or any real discussion about it.

It would stop this forum from becoming just the fi chasing model Discussion.

 

I totally agree with you. There should be 2 different threads, one for the reliable time frame (1 to 5) and another for people who like to chase dreams (7-10 days and more)

 

I'm sure we are all sick and tired of these BOOM and this constant hyping of charts that never verifies 

[Stationary Front]

Who’s the ‘we’ - not me, enjoying the chase, no hyping as far as I’m concerned, it seems it’s only the ones in here who are frustrated 

[Freeze]

6 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Cant thunder in summer?  2020 wishes to have a word

2020 was awful for storms in the southeast here especially, only storm I had was on 15 November and that was a flash and a couple rumbles, all the exciting stuff happens midland northwards

[William Downie]

On 31/12/2020 at 13:33, Daniel* said:

For some in northern Britain including parts of Midlands it’s been snowier than expected. Here close to central London the current temp is 1C after a low of -2C which was easily my coldest temp of 2020. Nice seasonal winter weather, which should hopefully help with lowering SSTs and ground temps. 

 

It's certainly been a snowy Christmas here in Addiewell in the central belt of Scotland. We're at 610 ft asl (186 m) and have had a blanket of snow for five days now. Today was probably our third ice day, with a maximum of about -2C. It was -4C at 6pm and we finally have a clear night sky, instead of the usual clearing around dawn and clouding up at dusk, so I'm expecting the coldest night of the winter.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

I wouldn't mind so much if it was cold and dry. But all we get is cold and wet. And looking at the next 10 days on BBC yet another low sinking down in to the jet stream. Continues the cold and wet. Might as well be mild and wet. It's just wet.

[StormyLincs]

24 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

I wouldn't mind so much if it was cold and dry. But all we get is cold and wet. And looking at the next 10 days on BBC yet another low sinking down in to the jet stream. Continues the cold and wet. Might as well be mild and wet. It's just wet.

On a more positive note, we might be mild and dry soon thanks to the lovely Bartlett high.

[HellItsHot]

Went out for a little spin on the bike this morning and I can certainly confirm it was f-f-freezing. And unfortunately, raining. 
 

Is there any truth in the rumour that the average model thread contributor regularly gets into trouble for promising that their wife’s birthday present will appear in 10 days?