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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    well i guess the chilly spell is comming to the end, imby we have 2 more night of just below 0c temps then we are at 2/3c from then on, daytime temps no lower than 5c, sunday, monday and tuesday rain, bring on an early warm spring please.

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs

    I have a really strong suggestion for everyone, come back on Sunday and revaluate what's happening going forward, clinging from run to run does nothing for the sanity levels, it will be narnia and Snowmageddon in 4 hours time and chop and change until the shortwaves debacle between the two strongest regimes i/e the Russian High and Atlantic Blocking anchor down and sort out. 

    We have a saying in Welsh 'ara deg a phob yn dipyn' which translated as 'slowly, slowly, each and every little bit' I think that's what's in store for the next few days until things settle and are resolved. 

    It has been quite frustrating here in western Wales with the sea surface temperatures of the Irish sea hampering our chances in terms of snowfall, but as each day passes the sst's lower and become more favourable, I suspect that's what will happen in the North sea as well. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    Any true cold always seems just out of reach. Before Christmas it looked like this week would be the week, then when this week arrived we said it definitely looks like next week now.

    But now as we're approaching next week, we're looking at the following week once more. If this just keeps going on we'll be in February before we know it. We just can't seem to hit the jackpot.

    And as for the ECM snow charts I really don't buy them one bit, just back on Monday it was showing this (below/) for the end of this week. As we all know, that's going to be well off the mark.

    snowdepth_20201228_12_096.jpg

    Edited by NewEra21
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    35 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

    well i guess the chilly spell is comming to the end, imby we have 2 more night of just below 0c temps then we are at 2/3c from then on, daytime temps no lower than 5c, sunday, monday and tuesday rain, bring on an early warm spring please.

    Yep 5c big deal eh ! What a wonderful 'cold' 'spell' LOL 

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    2 hours ago, DCee said:

    It'll be quite festive up north for the next few weeks I'm sure. For the south it'll be wet and cold. At least some dryer weather is forecast after all the flooding.

    Going forward the faux easterly has very poor uppers which will likely climb even further.

    After a week to ten days there is some opportunity...but I think the south and east especially will require an SSW. So mid to late Jan for a reshuffle.

     

    Weather models are usually quite poor at predicting snow, especially in a marginal climate like ours, so with luck you might get some soon.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

    Now i'm a naturally very optimistic individual, but i've been burned waaaay too many times to count over the years on this site, and i find myself at this time suffering from a bit of model fatigue.

    It's been my knee-jerk reaction when i see certain 'negative' posts on the Model Discussion thread to dismiss them, but this last 10 days or so it's always felt like the good stuff is always 6 days away, and i'm starting to see their point of view.

    Yes, i've had a sprinkling of snow here on Christmas Eve, and i woke up to a light dusting yesterday, but I cannot shake the feeling that it should be delivering more.

    I know that what's happening now is a lot better than we've had for a good while, but I find myself getting wearied by checking the outputs several times each day to find that the forecast snow is now fizzled out to a wintry mix, or it's definitely coming at +96, or it's now modelled to hit the Low Countries.

    Apologies for the downbeat feel to this post, i'm sure that after a 2 day break from obsessively monitoring the models will help.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge

    It's an interesting period of weather for sure. But my analysis always leads to the same result; missed chances and no real cold.

    This winter will be known as one what could of been. The Russian high development was, and is, typically poor for UK cold, and usually means periodic UK flooding. 

    Continue to watch as the models show snow and cold always 7 to 10 days away all the way into January, but nothing of note actually coming to fruition.

    The north might do well, occasionally, sometimes to lower levels. All standard stuff.

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    7 minutes ago, DCee said:

    It's an interesting period of weather for sure. But my analysis always leads to the same result; missed chances and no real cold.

    This winter will be known as one what could of been. The Russian high development was, and is, typically poor for UK cold, and usually means periodic UK flooding. 

    Continue to watch as the models show snow and cold always 7 to 10 days away all the way into January, but nothing of note actually coming to fruition.

    The north might do well, occasionally, sometimes to lower levels. All standard stuff.

    It seems accepted on here that the Atlantic is almost exclusively to blame for our relatively mild winters... maybe we need to rethink that conclusion so that next time we won't be so disappointed.

    In the meantime, here's hoping that frozen sleet won't overburden A&Es in the next few weeks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Godstone Surrey
  • Location: Godstone Surrey

    Lost the will live oops sorry  to weather watch the models !!  I'll come back next Monday to  see if the uppers have got colder ....I think Mr Murr has chucked the towel in again ....... 10 day met trend video  is so disappointing ....cold  rain  from the East!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham

    I've not thrown towel in yet like some seem to have done, yes our proposed Easterlies next week don't look like delivering true cold from siberia we can sometimes expect as source will be the far East of Med, but and its a big but if the low down in med can grow and move a little further North and our high holds to North these Easterly winds might eventually drag colder air in from further East, might take all of next week but I think we might get there in end. 🤞

     

    It might all go Pete Tong and Atlantic comes storming back through again though. 😆

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln
  • Location: Lincoln

    Anyway, snow (and heatwaves) are lovely in theory but it in reality they’re a pain in the behind. Taking your life into your hands going anywhere or too hot to do anything, even kipping. 
     

    That said, if we I get 8 inches next week I’ll be as happy as a pig in poo. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton upon trent
  • Weather Preferences: Cold
  • Location: Burton upon trent
    9 minutes ago, HellItsHot said:

    That said, if we I get 8 inches next week I’ll be as happy as a pig in poo. 

    My wife said this also.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    I’m hoping for some cold weather in early to mid January, and will be playing this song if it comes off.

    But, hopefully the Atlantic doesn’t move in like a bulldozer to scupper my wishes.

     

    Edited by Sunny76
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I note that from today the gfs is offering 3 hourly charts out to t384. I fear that the consequencies of this could br dire with Cherry Pickers being overwhelmed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    7 minutes ago, knocker said:

    I note that from today the gfs is offering 3 hourly charts out to t384. I fear that the consequencies of this could br dire with Cherry Pickers being overwhelmed.

    What's you're opinion for January in terms of weather? A lot of talk about being a quite a snowy month?

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    9 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    What's you're opinion for January in terms of weather? A lot of talk about being a quite a snowy month?

    I'm afraid that's way above my pay grade 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Sadly this was never looking like a snowy spell of weather. Cold, yes, but not snowy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    The latest met office 10 day trend provides the best viewing imo amid the 'fog' of the various model runs and different points of view in the model thread.

    As I had noted,and seen a few others mention, the coming Easterly is not a 'true' one ( importing milder air from the Med) into the mix)

    So,in the early part of next week we turn a little milder with a wintry mix in the showers.

    Later next week we turn a little colder again if the ECM data was to verify as the Easterly becomes sourced from a colder point.

    Of course alot can change in that later period.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Couldn't see the ECM mean posted at 240, truly incredible.

    Also once the hi Res models like arome and Harmonie get the easterly in range thats currently 72-144, I think it will show a lot of snowy streamers.

     

    EDH1-240 (5).gif

    EDH0-240 (3).gif

    ooh dunno. Probably not cold enough for snow😚🤐🤭

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    1 hour ago, Sweatyman said:

    ooh dunno. Probably not cold enough for snow😚🤐🤭

    Sorry it's just windy and wet. Very little chance of snow, maybe some transient snow at attitude (>300m) which will quickly disappear.

    Going forward more wet weather followed by high pressure and some warmth from the SW looking likely.

    Not much in the way of cold or snow fingers crossed for another chance mid Jan going into February.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    50 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

    Is it safe to say those who depend on online deliveries should avoid getting deliveries of said food around the mid second week of January and get any supplies needed for two weeks at the start of the second week of January instead?

    It's far too early with way too much uncertainty to make such a statement. Should such a statement be made in mainstream media, scenes like the start of Covid would occur, so also irresponsible.

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    1 hour ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

    Covid isn't of concern people will be in doors at home not mixing as for broken bones people who are not driving will be getting deliveries and should stock up on the right footwear or grips to be prepaired. We've got those things with shoe spikes to grip the ice and snow its the delivery drivers I am concerned for. can not grit the path because if they slip the resident would be held liable for damages.

    I've got a pair of those grips, they are very good....Re: Gritting paths, this seems to have become a bit of a myth over the years. You cannot be held liable for clearing your path as you need to  have been found to be negligent in doing so. e'g If you used a pressure washer to clear the path knowing it would freeze overnight you would be on dodgy ground (so to speak! 🙂 ), but i'm unaware of anyone prosecuted for gritting or clearing a path with a shovel.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Hmm I think I slightly agree with you Geordie,as even next week's easterly has been watered down and initially it had looked very cold.it seems we are always looking and chasing 10 day charts away!if we lived 1000 miles east nothing would be a problem

    I know people in Poland who don't have snow on the ground at the moment whereas I do so not strictly true...

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