Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[StormyLincs]

7 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Good for you up north! Quite pathetic down south as usual!

It’s not just the south that’s being snow starved. I live in coastal Lincs and all we’ve had is rain and barely a frost so far this winter. Northerlies used to produce snow by the bucket load here, but now we’re lucky to see a few blobs of sleet mixed in with a cold rain. This is the reality of global warming I’m afraid and it’s only going to get worse in years to come.  ‘Tings ain’t what they used to be’. 

[snowy36]

Jesus some people would have whinged in this place if we were back in 63, well we got 6 foot but we could have had 10   Enjoy the winter ride.

[pureasthedriven]

4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

What a stonker! I haven't seen many stalling battleground snowbands like that, since the glory days of the 1960s and '80s!

    

Warning... FANTASY ISLAND!

And completely hopeless for southern counties of England. ‘Nationwide’ snow event that ain’t - I appreciate London is like a different country but still part of the UK last time I looked!

[Flake news]

51 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Jesus some people would have whinged in this place if we were back in 63, well we got 6 foot but we could have had 10   Enjoy the winter ride.

I'd imagine people in '63 noted how little snow there was compared '47.  "Winters aren't what the used to be!", they probably said.

[summer blizzard]

Far too much complaining.

This is not the first time we've seen cold synoptic poor upper weather 99 and 05 spring to mind. We still saw snow and have had cold winters since.

[Flake news]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Far too much complaining.

This is not the first time we've seen cold synoptic poor upper weather 99 and 05 spring to mind. We still saw snow and have had cold winters since.

Frozen ground is my benchmark.  Disliking "slush n' muck" is human.

[Mark Parsons]

Ya'll idiots man thinking it will snow in this set up, snow way man...........

[StormyLincs]

1 hour ago, snowy36 said:

Jesus some people would have whinged in this place if we were back in 63, well we got 6 foot but we could have had 10   Enjoy the winter ride.

Says someone that’s probably got or has had a good covering of snow.

[StormyLincs]

27 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Far too much complaining.

This is not the first time we've seen cold synoptic poor upper weather 99 and 05 spring to mind. We still saw snow and have had cold winters since.

Well you would well inland at 600 ft. sheesh!

[summer blizzard]

43 minutes ago, Kevo22 said:

Well you would well inland at 600 ft. sheesh!

Sadly that's my parents house/former house (actually gets to 220m a mile or so away), I am a lowly 100m ish in ls12 (though currently at the parents breaching the rules to go back already).

[snowy36]

1 hour ago, Kevo22 said:

Says someone that’s probably got or has had a good covering of snow.

Sadly nothing for us yet and i'm not sure when it will snow but i'd rather have what we have than the last 4 or 5 winter set ups. The fun is in the chase.

Edited December 30, 2020 by snowy36

[shunthebartlett92]

Been very fortunate the past couple of days in the midlands here. About 8cm of snow from a system that pivoted right on top of us, but i have no doubt a number of us will get a covering in the next few weeks if this easterly materialises. Fingers crossed for us all!

[SteveB]

26 minutes ago, Jason M said:

The posters who go on about the posters who comment on the 850s are also getting boring. I get bored of the the unjustified and completely OTT ramping tbh but other than allowing myself this one indulgence I suck it up as I respect others views. If we attack people for alternate views we discourage people from posting and that clearly can't be a good thing.

Just put out a post having a pop at others and watch the 'likes' roll in. Some people have a different view and just because a view runs contrary to the the echo chamber it doesn't make it pessimistic. Those who have urged caution in recent weeks have been proved largely right to do so. Not 100% right of course (as some people have snow on the ground right now). Rather than having at pop at these posters more people should be asking themselves if there are any 'learns' to take out of this week.

If the thread is no longer a place for the realists maybe we need to just be honest about it, rename the thread 'snow watch' and put a message out for Crazy Snow Fan to join the fun. He must still be out there somewhere 

Meanwhile back in model land, the output continues to be good, next week looks a little colder than this week so probably the right side of marginal for more people. The source of any easterly is still open to debate though so as boring as it might be for some I expect this debate will go on (and quite rightly as its relevant).

Who wants to listen to people moaning all the time. There is enough negativity in this world, so it's nice to come on here and listen to some positive comments. 

Edited December 30, 2020 by SteveB

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

That's fine, but the ramping of recent weeks wasn't exactly factual. If you feel they are wrongly pointing out a problem with a lack of cold air, engage with the argument. I really didn't like the look of this week, but not just because of the 850s because it also related to the actual 'airmass' which was always going to have issues with warm layers, DP's, Theta values etc etc. The 850s only look slightly better next week but the other factors should be much more favorable. Personally, I think the skepticism has been proved justified for many but of course others will see it differently (especially if their garden is white instead of green like mine!). People can't even agree on history let alone what's in front of them 

I'm more hopeful of some snow next week, but so far I've got what I anticipated, which is a big fat nothing!!

IYBY and there in lies the problem. Too much imbyism posted. Each poster has a differing perspective. Some ramping was correct. Lying snow for a good part of Northern England and possibly west midlands. A very cold night to come  aiding the cold pool development.

On to the 12zs and if it shows cold ramp away with model evidence. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Going to be busy looking at those lamp posts into next week for sure.

Often the case at the immediate East coast where I am, it’s a bigger risk that can see bigger gains like 2018, or bigger losses such as 2009, where we saw rain, but over in Rutland and beyond saw large amounts of settling snow. Elevation always helps!! It’s all relative however. 

Coasts = more precipitation, bigger risks. 

Inland = less precipitation, but less risks/marginality. 

[William Downie]

I'm sorry to see so few of you down south have had any decent winter weather so far (I'm not mocking you here - I sympathise).

Here between Edinburgh and Glasgow at 610ft we've had snow lying for three days, with about 2.5 inches at present. Yesterday was an ice day and today so far has been the same (-5C this morning). The scenery is Christmas-card lovely, with every tree branch clad in white. It's all very seasonal here.

I hope the rest of you get some snow soon. It looks promising for the next wee while.

 

[Sweatyman]

So now the UKMO is crap when earlier it was great. Make ya soddin minds up. Dunno if im comin or going. As for GFS who knows?  i dont... i can't be the only one!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, William Downie said:

I'm sorry to see so few of you down south have had any decent winter weather so far (I'm not mocking you here - I sympathise).

Here between Edinburgh and Glasgow at 610ft we've had snow lying for three days, with about 2.5 inches at present. Yesterday was an ice day and today so far has been the same (-5C this morning). The scenery is Christmas-card lovely, with every tree branch clad in white. It's all very seasonal here.

I hope the rest of you get some snow soon. It looks promising for the next wee while.

 

It'll be quite festive up north for the next few weeks I'm sure. For the south it'll be wet and cold. At least some dryer weather is forecast after all the flooding.

Going forward the faux easterly has very poor uppers which will likely climb even further.

After a week to ten days there is some opportunity...but I think the south and east especially will require an SSW. So mid to late Jan for a reshuffle.

[feb1991blizzard]

This whole thing is turning into a right mess now, and usually when it does, there is only one outcome............. -.               gutted!

[HellItsHot]

After a lot of study of the Mod thread, I’ve come to the conclusion that a ‘proper’ cold spell is now impossible in the UK. Everything’s set up right, but lads, the air just isn’t cold enough. 
 

And I’m no expert, but it seems cold air is quite important in these situations. 

[HellItsHot]

On the other hand, furnace type spells are more than possible, so there is that. 

[Sweatyman]

Absolute crap Beeb forecast 5c for Sunday. Load of s$#€e

[sparky1972]

well i guess the chilly spell is comming to the end, imby we have 2 more night of just below 0c temps then we are at 2/3c from then on, daytime temps no lower than 5c, sunday, monday and tuesday rain, bring on an early warm spring please.

[Cymro]

I have a really strong suggestion for everyone, come back on Sunday and revaluate what's happening going forward, clinging from run to run does nothing for the sanity levels, it will be narnia and Snowmageddon in 4 hours time and chop and change until the shortwaves debacle between the two strongest regimes i/e the Russian High and Atlantic Blocking anchor down and sort out. 

We have a saying in Welsh 'ara deg a phob yn dipyn' which translated as 'slowly, slowly, each and every little bit' I think that's what's in store for the next few days until things settle and are resolved. 

It has been quite frustrating here in western Wales with the sea surface temperatures of the Irish sea hampering our chances in terms of snowfall, but as each day passes the sst's lower and become more favourable, I suspect that's what will happen in the North sea as well. 

[NewEra21]

Any true cold always seems just out of reach. Before Christmas it looked like this week would be the week, then when this week arrived we said it definitely looks like next week now.

But now as we're approaching next week, we're looking at the following week once more. If this just keeps going on we'll be in February before we know it. We just can't seem to hit the jackpot.

And as for the ECM snow charts I really don't buy them one bit, just back on Monday it was showing this (below/) for the end of this week. As we all know, that's going to be well off the mark.

Edited December 30, 2020 by NewEra21