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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    and west is best and the uk high, reminds me of myself and the Jan 7th lockdown, seems convinced

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
    39 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    Do these ensemble charts ever come to fruition as it always seem be these charts that are belters? 🥶

    Slightly get the feeling that if you cherry pick charts they will never come to fruition. Might as well read the Express or Mail. What was all that excitement a week ago?

    Be nice to have some careful consideration of all the forecasts, models and charts in a balanced way. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    2 hours ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

    Fret not, someone on the mod thread will come out with a D16 chart to get peoples hopes up.

    Ramping dialed up to 10 this evening on the MOD thread. Interesting fact though is that the day 10 mean has the UK under -3 to -5c at 850.  

    Now it may be that in the coming days we see amazing charts that are actually genuinely cold but this is so overhyped its beyond crazy. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    hope it doesn't all end in tears (or tiers)

    I try to stay grounded following countless disappointments over the last 20 years of watching the models and 17 and a half years on and off the forum, but I am now leaning towards a noteworthy cold spell being more likely than not and I am starting to entertain the possibility of something a bit more exceptional than noteworthy. 

    To benchmark noteworthy and exceptional I give the following examples in the last decade or so 

     

    Feb 2009 - noteworthy

    Jan 2010 - noteworthy

    Dec 2010 - exceptional

    Mar 2013 - exceptional

    Feb/Mar 2018 - noteworthy

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    In all seriousness, whilst most on this forum are excited by a prolonged period of severe cold weather, we should remember that we are in a minority. 

    On the back of CV19 and likely disruptions adapting to a post brexit world, this would in many ways be kicking the country whilst its down. 

    All very well setting up mass vaccination hubs to vaccinate 2 million a week, if no-one can get to them. Remember the elderly and those with underlying health issues are supposed to be first up and they will find dealing with this a lot harder than the remainder of the population. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    48 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    hope it doesn't all end in tears (or tiers)

    I try to stay grounded following countless disappointments over the last 20 years of watching the models and 17 and a half years on and off the forum, but I am now leaning towards a noteworthy cold spell being more likely than not and I am starting to entertain the possibility of something a bit more exceptional than noteworthy. 

    To benchmark noteworthy and exceptional I give the following examples in the last decade or so 

     

    Feb 2009 - noteworthy

    Jan 2010 - noteworthy

    Dec 2010 - exceptional

    Mar 2013 - exceptional

    Feb/Mar 2018 - noteworthy

    I'd also perhaps add late Feb 2006-Mar 2006. That had two pretty sustained cold spells and was on for a sub 4C month until a warm spell came along for the last week. (indeed it took till the 25th March to record a day over 15c showing how cold that first 20 days was. Interestingly it had the same CET as March 2018 as well.

    Though definitely not in the bracket of March 2013, I'd say for its bursts of cold it was still noteworthy, especially at the time, but its been rather forgotten as frankly, better has come along since then.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    I'd also perhaps add late Feb 2006-Mar 2006. That had two pretty sustained cold spells and was on for a sub 4C month until a warm spell came along for the last week. (indeed it took till the 25th March to record a day over 15c showing how cold that first 20 days was. Despite that warmer last week, it ranks as the joint 5th coldest March since 1964 in the CET region with March 2018...

    Though definitely not in the bracket of March 2013, I'd say for its bursts of cold it was still noteworthy, especially at the time, but its been rather forgotten as frankly, better has come along since then.

    Remember it quite well - lived in Central London at the time and saw lots of falling but precious little laying snow. I know some parts not far out of the centre did well as did a lot of the South East and Eastern England.

    Wasn't that the same year as that one of the most spectacular model busts of all time occurred. Seem to recall a very well signalled long lasting easterly (quite a bit more severe than what we actually got in the end) that was due a week or two before the cold set in completely imploding in the space of one or two GFS runs. 

    Jan 2013 nearly made it onto the list, but from what I recall it promised far more than it delivered, not that I was concerned as spent most of the month in ICU. 

    One more - the countrywide thundersnow event of 2003 (I think, maybe 2002), was one of the most remarkable events I have ever witnessed. Temps dropped about 5C from the start of the squall line to the end. Went from torrential rain to 2 inches of snow on a layer of about a cm of ice in Central London in the space of 20 minutes. Only an event in an otherwise non-descript winter, so doesn't make the noteworthy cut.

    Edited by Stu_London
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    Posted
  • Location: Gloucester,England
  • Location: Gloucester,England

    I find this so surreal at the moment. I've been following the models for around 4-5 years and I've never seen model output quite like it. I do remember March 2018 but that was a short but sharp BFTE. Not like now where the entire GFS output is significantly below average throughout from start to end with plenty of time for snow to fall.

    For those more experienced, are you finding this as surreal as I am, and have you seen this before?

    Just wondering what response we will get from the weather orgs; Met Office etc and whether they'll start to hint at the current output.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    Remember it quite well - lived in Central London at the time and saw lots of falling but precious little laying snow. I know some parts not far out of the centre did well as did a lot of the South East and Eastern England.

    Wasn't that the same year as that one of the most spectacular model busts of all time occurred. Seem to recall a very well signalled long lasting easterly (quite a bit more severe than what we actually got in the end) that was due a week or two before the cold set in completely imploding in the space of one or two GFS runs. 

    Jan 2013 nearly made it onto the list, but from what I recall it promised far more than it delivered, not that I was concerned as spent most of the month in ICU. 

     

    I think that may have been in January 2006, I can't remember that well since nearly every cold spell form that era got downgraded to some extent

    I also remember Feb 2005 which at one point was basically modeled like those big 80s cold spells. Whilst we did have a cold spell, it was kinda like this week, very marginal. We did briefly tap into deeper cold and there was a somewhat ok snow event right at the start of March, but yeah, it was nothing like it was originally progged to be.

    Locally back in S.Essex I did quite well thanks to several Thames streamers that set in, and actually it had quite a long stretch where somewhere got snow in the UK, but it was most known for a terrible bust with a LP that came in from the north sea. The models quite widely went with snow, but the front came in weaker than expected and basically dissolved into a drizzle sleety mess - I remember being out in it and it was raw and unpleasant. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    4 minutes ago, seajamiet said:

    I find this so surreal at the moment. I've been following the models for around 4-5 years and I've never seen model output quite like it. I do remember March 2018 but that was a short but sharp BFTE. Not like now where the entire GFS output is significantly below average throughout from start to end with plenty of time for snow to fall.

    For those more experienced, are you finding this as surreal as I am, and have you seen this before?

    Just wondering what response we will get from the weather orgs; Met Office etc and whether they'll start to hint at the current output.

    There is unusual output for sure. December 2010 had similarities for sure both in extraordinary patterns being predicted, which came off largely and the run up, with a stressed vortex. That was a 5 week spell and we are 2 days into this one so lots of twists and turns to come - we need to get some deeper cold entrenched here and in northern europe for it to progress to a classic. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
    3 hours ago, Stu_London said:

    Remember it quite well - lived in Central London at the time and saw lots of falling but precious little laying snow. I know some parts not far out of the centre did well as did a lot of the South East and Eastern England.

    Wasn't that the same year as that one of the most spectacular model busts of all time occurred. Seem to recall a very well signalled long lasting easterly (quite a bit more severe than what we actually got in the end) that was due a week or two before the cold set in completely imploding in the space of one or two GFS runs. 

    Jan 2013 nearly made it onto the list, but from what I recall it promised far more than it delivered, not that I was concerned as spent most of the month in ICU. 

    One more - the countrywide thundersnow event of 2003 (I think, maybe 2002), was one of the most remarkable events I have ever witnessed. Temps dropped about 5C from the start of the squall line to the end. Went from torrential rain to 2 inches of snow on a layer of about a cm of ice in Central London in the space of 20 minutes. Only an event in an otherwise non-descript winter, so doesn't make the noteworthy cut.

    The thunder snow event was 2004 I’m pretty sure of it. Never seen anything like it before or since.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    The vents uppers.. well into January... the 10hpa around now..!! Stark..stark indeed!!!  Zonal winds turnaround.. and the paint dripping IS underway!!!!!!!.. we are seriously likely to be in the game BIG... on we move... ecm ooz/6zs etc......

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    4E5AADD8-0B7B-4AFB-B0E5-D9B06CFEB90A.png

    3820848E-4838-40D3-8623-F847FAB14427.png

    Good lord . . .

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    8 minutes ago, Dan the Man said:

    Going to be some speedy trips across the Atlantic looking at that jet...

    But remember- these are 10hpa sequence.. not FL-500/100 hpa JS...

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    10 minutes ago, Dan the Man said:

    Going to be some speedy trips across the Atlantic looking at that jet...

    If they're in a space shuttle.

    I think that is well above commercial airlines. 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    But remember- these are 10hpa sequence.. not FL-500/100 hpa JS...

    For reference/compare @300hrs.  The vents @10hpa.. and the get @100..  complete contrasts... anyway bk to the brutal models that behold 2021👌😜😜😜💪.. @ classic in the making!!!!!

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    27759FA5-7472-44C1-BD74-32586D6C8DA9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    On 26/12/2020 at 22:32, Snowy L said:

    Whatever happens we are heading for some very strange and for the UK a very rare weather pattern. Don't remember ever having what looks like 10 days of a bit cooler than average temperatutes. Almost like we are generating and self-sustaining  our own homegrown cold pool, after the initial injection of cold from this weekend's storm. 

    Well tonight was unexpected 5cm of snow and counting when it was supposed to be a +250 metres event.

    After Stoke were doing well for marginal events!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
    7 hours ago, Jason M said:

    Ramping dialed up to 10 this evening on the MOD thread. Interesting fact though is that the day 10 mean has the UK under -3 to -5c at 850.  

    Now it may be that in the coming days we see amazing charts that are actually genuinely cold but this is so overhyped its beyond crazy. 

    Yep... it will mean exactly what is going on right now for most of the country. The "beautiful" (I am sarcastic of course) cold rain. Rainy days and 2 degrees. Like not winning the lottery by missing one number only...

     

    The main thread has become unreadable. This one is a breath of fresh air. Remember that we were promised Narnia by some "famous" posters there for the period 28th -29th....

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    Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

    Looked at the forecast.... and mby has several days of cool dry quiet weather.... jam is always at t240

    Boy am I hoping for some changes lol

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