Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

So which locations got the highest snow depths at modest altitudes (up to 300m) ? Yorkshire ? Wales ? Scotland ?

[Methuselah]

Time for a spot-the-beast competition... Is that a polar bear?

   

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Time for a spot-the-beast competition... Is that a polar bear?

   

Looks like one to me.

[dragan]

I said this last week that it looks like turning milder after the cold blip. Some very brilliant posts about what COULD happen if things change, but the fact is, we are turning milder, and there is no cold on the horizon. 

[cheshire snow]

7 minutes ago, dragan said:

I said this last week that it looks like turning milder after the cold blip. Some very brilliant posts about what COULD happen if things change, but the fact is, we are turning milder, and there is no cold on the horizon. 

Not to sure about milder if for example you take the GFS 12z not one day does the Temperature reach double figures so on that basis I would say returning to average at best just to add that is for my location at virtually sea level.

C.S

[dragan]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Not to sure about milder if for example you take the GFS 12z not one day does the Temperature reach double figures so on that basis I would say returning to average at best just to add that is for my location at virtually sea level.

C.S

i said milder not mild. So let’s agree 

[Valleyboy]

20 minutes ago, dragan said:

I said this last week that it looks like turning milder after the cold blip. Some very brilliant posts about what COULD happen if things change, but the fact is, we are turning milder, and there is no cold on the horizon. 

Not sure there’s no cold on the horizon.  From what perspective?  If you look at the NH profile, you can see that a cold outbreak is more than possible.  Most people on here are of a cold persuasion during winter, I guess there are some who are looking for mild.

[Skullzrulerz]

32 minutes ago, dragan said:

I said this last week that it looks like turning milder after the cold blip. Some very brilliant posts about what COULD happen if things change, but the fact is, we are turning milder, and there is no cold on the horizon. 

It was clear as day this would happen even with the northern hemisphere profile the issue is the lack of cold air 

You don't need to be expert to figure this one out

Any postive takes?

[dragan]

9 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

Not sure there’s no cold on the horizon.  From what perspective?  If you look at the NH profile, you can see that a cold outbreak is more than possible.  Most people on here are of a cold persuasion during winter, I guess there are some who are looking for mild.

from the perspective that the million pound computer models are not showing it lol, nor are the humans who get paid to translate the computers are not talking about cold either.

Im sure as you say a cold outbreak is possible, but then so is a mild outbreak.

By the way, i love cold and want to see it as much as any obsessed maniac on here, i’m not a ‘mildy’

[dragan]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It was clear as day this would happen even with the northern hemisphere profile the issue is the lack of cold air 

You don't need to be expert to figure this one out

Any postive takes?

nothing positive at the moment for cold lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, dragan said:

from the perspective that the million pound computer models are not showing it lol, nor are the humans who get paid to translate the computers are not talking about cold either.

Im sure as you say a cold outbreak is possible, but then so is a mild outbreak.

By the way, i love cold and want to see it as much as any obsessed maniac on here, i’m not a ‘mildy’

Come across as exactly like me, believe in mild, but want snow as much as everyone on here, but always favour mild to win out in the end now post '98

where is your location though? snowier than here I guess

[Matt H]

3 minutes ago, dragan said:

nothing positive at the moment for cold lol

Other than the mangled up polar vortex and the unusual lack of consistent zonality so far this December, I agree.

[dragan]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Other than the mangled up polar vortex and the unusual lack of consistent zonality so far this December, I agree.

yip, because it’s still sending us warm air from yeh south/south west.

 

Hope i’m proved wrong 

[damianslaw]

On 05/12/2020 at 17:44, Daniel* said:

I have produced a winter forecast for winter 2020/21, I put a lot of time/effort in it! Feel free to check it out.  

Winter 2020-21: A Dark Horse?

WWW.THESNOWDREAMERWXBLOG.COM

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Well here we are, again, meteorological winter is here, and increasing numbers of...

 

Thanks for that, a good read and backed up by good prognosis. 

Synergies with 2005-06, 2008-2009, 2012-13, and 2017-18 all four brought a cold first 10 days or so to December with the atlantic weak, at a time when it is typically at it's strongest, so agree must always take note when we have a weak atlantic now, suggests more bites at colder weather through the winter perhaps.

Just like the above 4 mentioned, could be quite episodic, colder weather mixed with milder weather at times, would be very happy with a 2008-2009, minus the very mild spell in the run up to christmas, could put up with a week or so of mild weather mid-month provided it went cold from 19th onwards, not too much to ask?

[Andy Bown]

I’m not wholly sure what it’s like in everyone else’s back yard, but in mine in Wiltshire today was the coldest day for about 22 months (since 2nd Feb 2019, Max 3.8c today) .

I don’t get all the negativity, I think it’s been a better start to winter than for quite some time, just without widespread frost/snow. The temperatures are below average and it’s way way colder than last year for instance!

By the way, expecting tomorrow to be colder still. Why do so many people expect narnia then get upset/cross at normal winter weather!?

[Valleyboy]

23 minutes ago, dragan said:

from the perspective that the million pound computer models are not showing it lol, nor are the humans who get paid to translate the computers are not talking about cold either.

Im sure as you say a cold outbreak is possible, but then so is a mild outbreak.

By the way, i love cold and want to see it as much as any obsessed maniac on here, i’m not a ‘mildy’

But you must know that NW members use their own experience to read the charts and make their forecasts, and surely you know that most charts + 5 days should be taken with a pinch of salt.

[Methuselah]

28 minutes ago, dragan said:

from the perspective that the million pound computer models are not showing it lol, nor are the humans who get paid to translate the computers are not talking about cold either.

Im sure as you say a cold outbreak is possible, but then so is a mild outbreak.

By the way, i love cold and want to see it as much as any obsessed maniac on here, i’m not a ‘mildy’

Well here's a 'correlation' for you: the last time Arsenal had such a bad start to the season as this, was way back in 1981... the rest, as they say, was history!

[Day_9]

5 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

My Geography A level grade of an A, all those years ago, tells me that a continent, big land mass, like Europe can cool down very quickly in Winter, so Day zero can be nowt like Day 5 in terms of temps.

Absolutely.  It’s already very cold indeed in Moscow under that huge high.  

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

I think it’s been a better start to winter than for quite some time

Just going by that - 6 days, it's worse than usual for my location.

It's the wettest start to winter since 2013 here. I even had 4 air frosts by this time last year, zero this year.

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

But you must know that NW members use their own experience to read the charts and make their forecasts, and surely you know that most charts + 5 days should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Yes and after 17 years on here very very few members come close. Perspective is a wise thing has is not jumping on the bandwagon on over speculative comments. The nhp isn't in its normal state ie PV and a zonal assault. Considering these ten day charts are calculations then 99 times out of 100 won't varify. Yet ec could show an easterly at day ten and the sledges are out. As you say 5 days max is possibly about rite but come the 18z showing a greenie high "which it prob won't" at day 12 it will all good. All fun tho, nothing to rutt about

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Exeter talk about snow showers down to low levels at times in the East.... that wording is how they always start out before a snowy spell. They will say to high ground only if they don't 

“In the East” I can’t see that in any of the wording I’ve read.

[qwertyK]

This made me laugh. 
Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met Office data suggests.

when have we ever had “snowy winters” in the uk least of all southern England? 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, qwertyK said:

This made me laugh. 
Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

By the 2040s most of southern England may no longer get sub-zero days, new Met Office data suggests.

when have we ever had “snowy winters” in the uk least of all southern England? 

 

finally realistic thing on media!!!!!!!!!

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

“In the East” I can’t see that in any of the wording I’ve read.

"Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times"

I think you need to look again mate. No disrespect.

This is textbook early wording for a possible cold spell. They use this terminology time and time again. Then nearer the time. They will change to wintry showers and very cold conditions in the East.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

"Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times"

I think you need to look again mate. No disrespect.

Well mate I think you may need to reread it because if your interpretation is correct then the south would be included as much as the East.  What I believe they mean is that more rain is likely in the east and south with wintry showers being possible on high ground at to low levels more generally mate. No disrespect

Edited December 6, 2020 by That ECM