Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Portsmouth Sun]

Oh my they are now chasing D16 charts in the model thread.  

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

Oh my they are now chasing D16 charts in the model thread.  

Is this your first day on net weather

[Portsmouth Sun]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Is this your first day on net weather

No, just having a belly laugh at how people clutch at straws. 

[frosty ground]

Just now, Portsmouth Sun said:

No, just having a belly laugh at how people clutch at straws. 

Laughing at your own in joke probably a sign it’s not that funny  

Not sure how a prolonged spell of below average temperatures with the chance of snowfall is straw clutching but that must be the joke right?

[Seasonal Trim]

4 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

No, just having a belly laugh at how people clutch at straws. 

Well why don't you go into the mod thread, find some charts and then post why you don't agree with what's  been posted?

Or is it that your only contribution to this forum is to moan about other members contributing to the forum?

Some of you in here really need to give it a rest. This is not the "moan about other members thread". Weather only!

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Wynter

[qwertyK]

It’s 4C here but feels absolutely frigid! Not sure if it’s the wind chill or just compared to the mild weather recently 

[smhouston]

I've been absent a fair bit on these forums after getting very despondent with the main model thread dribble which is spouted every single year. Came back thinking things might be different but nope, still the same old ramping is the main view wanted, especially with my post being moved trying to put a bit of perspective on things even though I still mentioned about the ensembles being good but not great (so model discussion). The same "big" posters only appearing and talking about things in their back yard which is misleading to members. I was about to give up again and leave, then I thought I'd pop in to this thread....and it's like a breath of fresh air!

I definitely do not claim to be a weather expert, I wouldn't even claim to hit novice level. I have been on here to notice trends though so like to think I can gauge an upcoming spell well. This one just isn't spectacular at all. Colder feeling but snow chances so far are minimal except for that one event next week. I do always believe you need to get the cold in place for the snow to follow so obviously it is a positive step. However, making comparisons to classic cold spells is absolute crazy. Had 2 posters claiming the Met and others non believers will have egg on face due to the upcoming spell they was using charts 10 days away as their basis for that!? Widespread snow event!? Absolutely ridiculous

 

 

 

 

[snowblizzard]

Stunning winter synopsis being modelled in terms of Northern blocking, amplified pattern, PV etc.

But, I still have the feeling that the really frigid cold air just isn't there to be tapped into at the moment! 

Hopefully, that will soon fall into place before the whole pattern changes back to a more normal zonal scenario.

So, fingers crossed for a widespread notable spell of very cold and snowy winter weather for UK.  

Happy Christmas!

Edited December 24, 2020 by snowblizzard

[smhouston]

18 minutes ago, Wynter said:

Well why don't you go into the mod thread, find some charts and then post why you don't agree with what's  been posted?

Or is it that your only contribution to this forum is to moan about other members contributing to the forum?

Some of you in here really need to give it a rest. This is not the "moan about other members thread". Weather only!

 

I know that isn't a reply to my post but it could be applied, so how can you post something to disprove someone when things haven't happened? It's just known that things so so far out don't verify, so going crazy about them stating the other experts are already wrong is misleading to other newer members who don't know that 

In upcoming cold spells the general rule of thumbs is T72-T120 take with a huge dose of skepticism, T120+ have a laugh then chuck away. Unfortunately cold spells in the UK are notoriously hard to model hence why we've had one at T48 scrapped despite model unity quite a few years ago. Although, to be that close to then be scuppered is a very rare thing indeed

Anyway, started sleeting ever so slightly here. Does feel very cold though which is a nice seasonal change. I do find the netweather forecast interesting though....apparently I might be due some torrential fog next week 

 

[Seasonal Trim]

8 minutes ago, smhouston said:

I know that isn't a reply to my post but it could be applied, so how can you post something to disprove someone when things haven't happened? It's just known that things so so far out don't verify, so going crazy about them stating the other experts are already wrong is misleading to other newer members who don't know that 

In upcoming cold spells the general rule of thumbs is T72-T120 take with a huge dose of skepticism, T120+ have a laugh then chuck away. Unfortunately cold spells in the UK are notoriously hard to model hence why we've had one at T48 scrapped despite model unity quite a few years ago. Although, to be that close to then be scuppered is a very rare thing indeed

Anyway, started sleeting ever so slightly here. Does feel very cold though which is a nice seasonal change. I do find the netweather forecast interesting though....apparently I might be due some torrential fog next week 

 

And to flip that, how can you ridicule the mod thread for discussing said charts when the actual weather hasn't happened yet.

I think some people view the mod thread incorrectly. It isn't a forecast thread, it isn't there for 100% accuracy of what is about to take place. It's there, purely and simply to discuss the models and what they are showing. Be that a bit of wind tonight, or snowmaggedon in 10 days time. If it's in the charts it's open for discussion.

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Wynter

[MidnightSnow]

5 minutes ago, smhouston said:

I know that isn't a reply to my post but it could be applied, so how can you post something to disprove someone when things haven't happened? It's just known that things so so far out don't verify, so going crazy about them stating the other experts are already wrong is misleading to other newer members who don't know that.

I had a quick look through your post history and couldn't find one positive post. Even when you had snow you put a negative spin on it. 

Don't want to sound harsh but what's the point of being on this forum if your main objective is to moan?

[smhouston]

8 minutes ago, Wynter said:

And to flip that, how can you ridicule the mod thread for discussing said charts when the actual weather hasn't happened yet.

I think some people view the mod thread incorrectly. It isn't a forecast thread, it isn't there for 100% accuracy of what is about to take place. It's there, purely and simply to discuss the models and what they are showing. Be that a bit of wind tonight, or snowmaggedon in 10 days time. If it's in the charts it's open for discussion.

 

and that is a fair point and I don't mind people discussing all those charts outputted (as unlikely as even the FI stuff is to happen). It's the fact they are claiming it is going to happen and shoving it in the "experts" (at lack of the thinking of a better word, there are very many amateur enthusiasts who I'd see as experts too) faces i.e. Meto; just because they don't show charts they are hoping for.  Basically smearing someones credibility and newer members getting confused. 

3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

I had a quick look through your post history and couldn't find one positive post. Even when you had snow you put a negative spin on it. 

Don't want to sound harsh but what's the point of being on this forum if your main objective is to moan?

Out of curiosity, is that where my history only goes up to 2018? If not, I'm curious where you've seen the rest of my posting history seems I've been a member since 2004. Even still, the lack of winter for the past half a decade is going to be a recipe for moaning posts, especially when things are ramped up and fail to deliver anything but a few showers with no accumulations (which I imagine is the post you're referring to). I remember back in the day having weather presenters showing sweeping snow symbols throughout the country - the true widespread disruptive snow. Nowadays, just getting a snow flurry seems to be like trying to find a needle in a haystack. 

Like many on here, the winter synoptics and the hunt for snow are the fascinating things that draw us in hence my only venturing on during the winter seasons. Not that I should really be having to explain my reasons for being on here  

 

Anyway,  the block button is useful and I should have used it sooner rather than getting wound up. I just didn't know who the extreme rampers are and I try to only do it as a last resort because I do like to see everyone's opinions on the near term charts and how they may evolve 

[AderynCoch]

16 hours ago, daz_4 said:

Pretty sad that only thing this synoptics will deliver is little bit of wet snow. Don't really get the excitement but maybe that's just my bitter inner central european talking. 

Some forecasts are actually showing snow here for tomorrow but I don't see how that's possible looking at the predicted temperatures. There's one actual cold day on the 27th then it's back to mild to put the cap on a truly lame December and an absolute omnishambles of a 2020.

Merry Christmas one and all.

[Scandinavian High.]

Just seen bbc look ahead as Area of snow London south east England for Monday 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Just seen bbc look ahead as Area of snow London south east England for Monday 

looks like that on EC too, maybe firming up, those NW of say St Albans to miss out

[WinterWilf]

Posts get moved here from mod thread ramps and moans.. But it's dead in here.

No wonder peeps post about their backyard in mod thread because mod thread is busy fast moving and interesting.

Although I never post in there due to lack of knowledge.

If you don't know 100% what you are talking about you just get torn to shreds which is not nice.

Looking forward to a this cold spell or maybe longer.

Hoping to get some snow to cheer me up been rubbish year for everyone.

Always seems to miss Burton as abit of a valley. Was same when lived in Oxfordshire.

It makes it all the more special when you see the white stuff falling from the sky.

Hope those that like cold and snow get some the next few days.

Charts look very promising but over the years we have had amazing setups only to snatch rain and mild conditions at very last second.

Have a good evening all. 

 

 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, WinterWilf said:

Posts get moved here from mod thread ramps and moans.. But it's dead in here.

No wonder peeps post about their backyard in mod thread because mod thread is busy fast moving and interesting.

Although I never post in there due to lack of knowledge.

If you don't know 100% what you are talking about you just get torn to shreds which is not nice.

Looking forward to a this cold spell or maybe longer.

Hoping to get some snow to cheer me up been rubbish year for everyone.

Always seems to miss Burton as abit of a valley. Was same when lived in Oxfordshire.

It makes it all the more special when you see the white stuff falling from the sky.

Hope those that like cold and snow get some the next few days.

Charts look very promising but over the years we have had amazing setups only to snatch rain and mild conditions at very last second.

Have a good evening all. 

 

 

 

 

EC horrendous 28th for us, see model thread

[Portsmouth Sun]

15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks like that on EC too, maybe firming up, those NW of say St Albans to miss out

Looking at this, everyone saying "bank" on the model thread look like missing out.  We will have to see what happens.

[WinterWilf]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC horrendous 28th for us, see model thread

I know right those charts crack me up. 

Bang in the middle of the no snow zone.

Always same either all around or too north or 2 south.

I am out driving delivering all day Monday so not all bad as roads would go mental and people will forget how to drive.

If cold sticks around that is the main thing then we will get a shot later on.

 

[snowspotter]

Hmmm well the latest BBC news 10 day weather outlook just said a bit chilly but nothing too cold. More a bit chilly . Hardly the stuff of legends compared to what is being discussed in the mod thread. At least we are promised a frost tonight hoorah 

[WinterWilf]

3 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Hmmm well the latest BBC news 10 day weather outlook just said a bit chilly but nothing too cold. More a bit chilly . Hardly the stuff of legends compared to what is being discussed in the mod thread. At least we are promised a frost tonight hoorah

I think they are playing it safe with lockdown and all announcing a prolonged cold spell with possible snow on the way may create more panic buying.

It is not going to be really cold at first but you would think they would be mentioning the possibility of a Lengthy cold spell with so many models having cross agreement.

They have never been great for my area they app is useless.  

It predicts things that never happen and only changes when you can see it out the window.

 

 

 

[Seasonal Trim]

Merry Christmas everyone. Even the grumpy gits in this thread! 

[Weather-history]

Merry Christmas, it was a cold frosty one, got down to -5C

 

[Gowon]

Merry Christmas to everybody on this great forum - enjoy! 

[winterof79]

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