Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Winterdarkness]

44 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Bournemouth

I live in Dorset! Let’s hope we get that again

[Portsmouth Sun]

42 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

I know! All these people are in for a shock! Mild wet and zonal 

Perhaps not zonal, but a lot of people will end up with egg on face.   Lots of people banking a D10 chart ten days ago are now banking a D10 for ten days times.  It's a never ending chase for people and before you know it spring will have sprung.   

[Eagle Eye]

IF WE HAD AN AO ANOMOLY ALL OF THE TIME WE WOULDD BE SIBERIAN.

Edited December 23, 2020 by Sheldon Cooper

[iceman1991]

 

TheWeatherOutlook

@TWOweather

·

4h

Probability forecasts continue to show a lengthy period of below average temperatures. There are *some* very tentative indications which *suggest* the possibility of severe cold in January should not be ruled out https://theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London…

[Bradley in Kent]

57 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

Perhaps not zonal, but a lot of people will end up with egg on face.   Lots of people banking a D10 chart ten days ago are now banking a D10 for ten days times.  It's a never ending chase for people and before you know it spring will have sprung.   

When I come into Netweather I have a breif look at the 10 day forecast just to get a sense on what's coming up before having a look at the models. 

9 times out of 10 you'll see the blue below freezing 'feels like' boxes in 5 days time and think 'mmm something wintry might be on its way'.

3 days later I'll come back and wonder if those blue boxes are now in 2 days time, but nope, they're still in 5 days time... Then the models will show a much watered down version as time gets closer. Normally this will go on and on until you end up realising its spring! Obviously there are exceptions to this most recently in February 2018, but I've learnt that chasing cold is a frustrating and disappointing experience. I do enjoy the nowcasting side of snow events when they do occur!

Fingers crossed for next week (y)

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, WxHerts said:

End of GFS 6z OP really reminded me of this from NYE 1978 lol.. more info on that here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72097-snowstorm-of-dec-30th31st-1978/

 

Thanks for posting that WxHerts.

Yes that little tome, was down to Yours Truly.

That Snow Event, is still the "best" example of heavy, driving Snow combined with a gale force Easterly wind. I've experienced, during the 50+ Years of Meteorology being my hobby. I was living in Bromley, N.W.Kent/S.E. London border, at the time.

The following Day (Sun.31st Dec.1978) was crystal clear but the Easterly wind was still extremely strong and whipping Snow from rooves of Houses and Cars.

The drifting was so extreme, that Burnt Ash Lane (A2212), less than 100 Yards from my front door, had frequent visits from a Snow Plough, to keep the main Road open. This was a very unusual sight, on a main Road in a London Borough.

Some superb posts on the Thread and the debate about West based -NAO, caught my eye.

A few Years before my Thread on the Dec.30th/31st 1978  Snowstorm, I began a Thread which if memory serves was entitled - "The demise of the Greenland High in Winter."

It was a very crude bit of "painting by numbers" research at how rare, true positive heights had become over the Island of Greenland, during the Winter Months.

I looked at every Winter Month, on the Wetterzentrale 500hPa archive Charts, going back to 1950.

As we know, Greenland has a very mountainous interior and positive heights in blue, are not "true" heights.

"True" heights are the Yellows/Greens, especially Yellow, on the 500hPa Charts.

I "awarded" a Greenland Yellow/Green Day, for every 24 Hour period when the Island was covered with at least 50% Yellow/Green, at the 500hPa level.

My research threw up some very interesting results.

It was during this research, that I stumbled across the West based -NAO, phenomenon.

January 1969 was one of the highest scoring Winter Months, when Yellow/Green was in the ascendancy over Greenland. Below, is an example, from that very -NAO Winter Month:

  

But the positive heights over Greenland are orientated towards Canada leaving the "back door" open to mild air, encroaching from the Atlantic.

Fast forward a few Weeks and positive heights are still in the ascendancy over Greenland, and a very pronounced -NAO, still ongoing:

But this time the heights over Greenland are orientated due South, into the Atlantic.

This opened the floodgates to the Arctic and the door, was firmly closed on the Atlantic.

I began the Thread to ascertain the link between positive heights over Greenland and Wintry Weather affecting the U.K.

There is a pretty good correlation but only when the -NAO is Central or East based but certainly NOT West based.

This is most telling when you view the C.E.T. record for Jan.1969 (5.5c) and Feb 1969 (1.0c).

A timely reminder, that we need a Greenland High to be orientated in a beneficial direction.

So, lets hope that if we do manage to achieve some high latitude blocking in that area, it orientates favourably!!

Regards,

Tom. 

[fromey]

Posted an hour ago

some screenshots  show high pressure sat over us at the beginning of the New Year!

your thoughts!

Edited December 23, 2020 by fromey
Spelling

[swfc]

The hero worshiping and stuff on the model threat is actually gringe worthy from grown men, jesus wept

[Portsmouth Sun]

1 hour ago, fromey said:

Posted an hour ago

some screenshots  show high pressure sat over us at the beginning of the New Year!

your thoughts!

 

Oh my, they'll be on the Prozac on the model thread. All those D10 charts they've been banking for the last few weeks. 

 

[Portsmouth Sun]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

The hero worshiping and stuff on the model threat is actually gringe worthy from grown men, jesus wept

You wouldn't mind if any of them ever admitted they were wrong and actually didn't have a clue.  They are now looking for D10 charts (again) getting all moist with the thought of snow.

[swfc]

Just now, Portsmouth Sun said:

You wouldn't mind if any of them ever admitted they were wrong and actually didn't have a clue.  They are now looking for D10 charts (again) getting all moist with the thought of snow.

Yes it's becoming a back patting click on there, very unhealthy

[radiohead]

Never seen so much excitement over charts with uppers that mainly range from -2 to -4....which is pretty much the same as what a lot of us are currently experiencing this evening.

 

Yes the NH pressure pattern looks great but we are really struggling to tap into proper cold air and the result could be a frustrating mix of cold rain, sleet, some wet snow at times and accumulations mainly limited to high ground and in the north. 

 

I do hope we see an improvement but I fear a reality check might be on the way for those trying to silence any talk of the disappointing looking uppers...

[Portsmouth Sun]

I'd love to see half a metre of snow, just to see what Commander in Chief Bojo does to get the country moving again (apparently it's a nailed on certainty according to the model thread) but lets keep it real, the upcoming week will be chilly at times, with the chance of some marginal snow, but nothing out of the ordinary.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Never seen so much excitement over charts with uppers that mainly range from -2 to -4....which is pretty much the same as what a lot of us are currently experiencing this evening.

 

Yes the NH pressure pattern looks great but we are really struggling to tap into proper cold air and the result could be a frustrating mix of cold rain, sleet, some wet snow at times and accumulations mainly limited to high ground and in the north. 

 

I do hope we see an improvement but I fear a reality check might be on the way for those trying to silence any talk of the disappointing looking uppers...

Yes I'd agree but despite commenting on it without ridicule is seen as a slant. All will be revealed even tho these charts are in reality fi. Looks promising mind but as in life a bit of realism never hurt anyone. 

[swfc]

I'm waiting on today's 1947 comparison, angel of death take me now!!!!

[Downburst]

15 minutes ago, swfc said:

I wouldn't worry pal, stick to the regional. There are people who pick up on a lot of big words and use them without actually knowing what they mean.

Couldn’t agree more. Couple of things, there are guys getting hero worshiped, then I sometimes see them ask “what’s this?” Over a pretty basic chart. The other thing is that in the Instagram world nothing matters except the next post, so no recognition of the constant move to precipitation charts 8 to 10 days out. Has always been thus, but getting worse now. 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Downburst

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

I'm waiting on today's 1947 comparison, angel of death take me now!!!!

Well, I got roundly chastised for using a T+384 chart (which just happened to be the chart most suited to my point!) to make an entirely unrelated suggestion -- that NH temps these days might cause a different evolution to what those of yesteryear would've done...

Forgive me Father for I have sinned... Of course things might roll out just like in 1947, just as they might roll out like just about any other year? How many Hail Marys do I owe, now?

[swfc]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Well, I got roundly chastised for using a T+384 chart (which just happened to be the chart most suited to my point!) to make an entirely unrelated suggestion -- that NH temps these days might cause a different evolution to what those of yesteryear would've done...

Forgive me Father for I have sinned... Of course things might roll out just like in 1947, just as they might roll out like just about any other year? How many Hail Marys do I owe, now?

Yes for sure. I grew up late 60s onwards and saw some legendry winter's. I think folk take things way to serious GC it's just weather for god sakes. They could also do with a humour transplant also imo

[swfc]

32 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

 

Anyway I'm off to sniff the dirt and see if I can see any siberian snow gees flying upside down heading east to west to escape the apocalyptic cold heading in. Remember if you can't be good be carefull uto

Edited December 23, 2020 by swfc

[daz_4]

Pretty sad that only thing this synoptics will deliver is little bit of wet snow. Don't really get the excitement but maybe that's just my bitter inner central european talking. 

[The Future]

I think the models are showing a week or so of below average temperatures with some wet snow and sleet but mostly cold rain.  A chance of something better/colder in the new year.

As a complete novice, is this summary correct?

[feb1991blizzard]

@northwestsnow

As a rule of thumb if you are talking Manchester City Centre, add loads on the temps compared to everywhere else, its all these buildings, its the UHI effect, Salford, right next to Manchester City Centre, minus double digit uppers Feb 09 - a dusting which had melted straight away followed by very light drizzly sleet for the next day!

-12c uppers can you believe it.

[mathematician]

53 minutes ago, The Future said:

I think the models are showing a week or so of below average temperatures with some wet snow and sleet but mostly cold rain.  A chance of something better/colder in the new year.

As a complete novice, is this summary correct?

Spot on

[Weather-history]

Colder airmass moves in

 

[V for Very Cold]

Bah humbug! Lol, to be honest, I’m a bit meh about the forecasts! 
 

looks like a chilly spell rather than a cold spell, and jam is still at T240

more cold rain on sodden surfaces 

 

come on festive weather fans, convince me otherwise! Lol

Merry Christmas one and all!