Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[topo]

Looking at ECMWF Operational can't share most people's excitement. 

Actually 850T are looking pretty terrible in Europe.

The only good thing is the Atlantic quietness and the "potential". Let's see if that word verifies,ever...

[Southern Storm]

12 minutes ago, topo said:

Looking at ECMWF Operational can't share most people's excitement. 

Actually 850T are looking pretty terrible in Europe.

The only good thing is the Atlantic quietness and the "potential". Let's see if that word verifies,ever...

At least we have a ticket to the raffle!

I expect that when the cold air starts moving south, we should start to see the models get a better grip on more realistic temperatures, and I mean that in a good way.

Things can cool very quickly up north at this time of the year, shortest days, ect..

I've seen it happen many times while watching consecutive model runs.

As the event moves closer to hour zero, you usually see the cooler 850s expand, I don't see why this time will be any different!

 

 

[sparky1972]

morning all, well there seems to me a semi positive mood over in the mod thread, hopefully it will start showing in the forecasts soon, met office 5 day and bbc 16 day forecast for mby show nothing wintry at all.

[smhouston]

Whilst not trying to steal West is Best mantle, I think a sense of reality is needed. People saying this is nailed on now and bringing up great winters it could compare against, we have heard it all before on here and it is quite confusing for newer members hearing soundbites like this. Quite a few years ago now, we had a "nailed on" snowy cold spell with complete model agreement yet it suddenly blew up spectacularly at T48 and it was a harsh lesson in that the models are simply that, predictions. There will be areas in the hemisphere where the stats gathering isn't as complete as other areas and can have big implications in modelling, as well as modelling have a human bias in it. We also have the UK snow shield. So I'm not trying to be a party pooper, but just issue a warning to try contain some of your excitement. In cold / snow situations anything T72+ should be taken with a pinch of salt

With the above in mind, I think we can say now that things are going to get colder in the next couple of days. *Hopefully* that means these synoptics being raved about come to fruition and that will lead to snow further down the line. The essembles are good but not great, but obviously that'll have some of my own bias in that - NW / N don't usually provide anything for us in the East. However, get the cold in first and the instability and snow usually follows 

[NewEra21]

We all want the cold and snow, but over in the model output thread, you just get shot down for saying something others just don't want to hear.

We all know it's going to turn colder, but whether we see snow is a different matter altogether. 

Imo things are still too far west, of course some just don't want to hear that and will write it off. But that's just my interpretation of the charts. 

I want the cold and snow locked in as much as anyone, but I can only comment on what I'm seeing.

[Summer Sun]

Met office yellow warnings are out for Snow, Ice, Wind and rain

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[Winterdarkness]

All this hype for what was cold In January is now disappearing on the 6z! Thanks guys for overhyping 

[ianmm94]

1 minute ago, Winterdarkness said:

All this hype for what was cold In January is now disappearing on the 6z! Thanks guys for overhyping 

January hasn't even happened yet! We're getting some of the best winter charts for years coming out. yet people are still acting all doom and gloom

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

All this hype for what was cold In January is now disappearing on the 6z! Thanks guys for overhyping 

It's one operational run in fi, best not to over analyse as I've learnt from this forum. For all we know it could be a massive mild outlier

[AdrianHull]

2 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

All this hype for what was cold In January is now disappearing on the 6z! Thanks guys for overhyping 

Are you speaking about your neck of the woods or UK as a whole?

There is a moan thread if you would like to use that

 

[sheikhy]

What is with some of the comments on here!!cold weather is on the way whether you like it or not nothings downgraded!!infact its the complete opposite!!

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

All this hype for what was cold In January is now disappearing on the 6z! Thanks guys for overhyping 

I wouldn't pay attention to models that far out, especially the GFS, it tends to be useless beyond 120hrs & it's better to pay attention to the ensemble means at that point. January is shaping up to be a below average month, it'll be chilly going into the month & with the potential for a major SSW in early January things are looking better than they have done for a couple of years now. 

An SSW in early Jan could allow for some very cold air across the UK right at the heart of winter, it's been a long time since we've seen that. How the SSW impacts the trop etc remains to be seen, but I'm rather excited about the prospects of January, we just have to be a little bit patient and try not to get caught up in the rollercoaster that is the GFS det run..

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

All this hype for what was cold In January is now disappearing on the 6z! Thanks guys for overhyping 

Lol since when have we ever drawn conclusions from one model run? And for that matter it goes back very cold there’s a sense in some way all routes lead to cold judging by current output.

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think I'm being very realistic personally, and I see nothing yet to swing me from my position that there will be a fairly decent area of snow between the 28-29th. It may well be marignal in some places and by more wintry in nature and obviously how well it sticks might well be a different question, but snow itself, I'm fairly confident it will be around. Especially on the cold flank of any secondary low.

I think your being pessimistic and simply looking at 850hpa to heavily. As I said before a similar but milder set-up gave Kent and EA snow a few weeks back.

also, far too early for any met office warnings, alot is going to depend on exactly where any secondary depressions set-up, which probably won't be known with any real confidence till the 26th I'd guess.

You're basically saying what I said in my summary.  By using words like Wintry and marginal that in itself tells you the picture.

As ever. We will see in a few days.

[LRD]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What is with some of the comments on here!!cold weather is on the way whether you like it or not nothings downgraded!!infact its the complete opposite!!

The sort of people that, with snow falling and accumulating outside their window, will be looking at the models looking for any clue for the cold to breakdown and try to bring everyone down so they can be the first to say 'I told you so' and claim some weird, empty victory (if they like cold it'd be an empty victory - who knows, maybe many of these posters like mild). The trouble is most people will be out enjoying the snow and not on their laptops so snow lovers won't really care at that stage!

I'm all for realism but I don't think some people are being very realistic by trying to downplay cold prospects either. Being realistic works both ways

[Skullzrulerz]

16 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

All this hype for what was cold In January is now disappearing on the 6z! Thanks guys for overhyping 

You have every right to your opinion and I will respect that 

However as other has said this has been some of the most promising winter charts on quite some time 

Yes it's a bit concerning that it does go a bit wrong at the end and hopefully it doesn't become a trend later on 

But we have plenty of time to see if it's get better for terms of cold or warm 

All interesting model watching

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

The sort of people that, with snow falling and accumulating outside their window, will be looking at the models looking for any clue for the cold to breakdown and try to bring everyone down so they can be the first to say 'I told you so' and claim some weird, empty victory (if they like cold it'd be an empty victory - who knows, maybe many of these posters like mild). The trouble is most people will be out enjoying the snow and not on their laptops so snow lovers won't really care at that stage!

I'm all for realism but I don't think some people are being very realistic by trying to downplay cold prospects either. Being realistic works both ways

Chill Winston!!! I tend to agree with the overhype sometimes but I think it's due to the fact the winter's of late have been pretty rank. Looks ok and temps, snow ete ete all to be resolved if and when it happens. Good outlook nonetheless so sit back and enjoy whatever the weather brings during its merry dance. Uto

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Chill Winston!!! I tend to agree with the overhype sometimes but I think it's due to the fact the winter's of late have been pretty rank. Looks ok and temps, snow ete ete all to be resolved if and when it happens. Good outlook nonetheless so sit back and enjoy whatever the weather brings during its merry dance. Uto

I'm perfectly chilled and relaxed and content as far as this model-watching hobby lark goes thanks. Tell the bedwetters, who want to find a problem at every single turn, to chill. They're the ones that are on the edge. Not me

[sparky1972]

glad to see more weather warnings on the bbc site for here, more rain and more wind, not sure what the hype is about regarding cold and snow, temps upto 10c on sunday, lol

[Winterdarkness]

Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Is it just me? or has anyone else noticed the similarities between  the gfs  at 240 plus for the last few days and the synoptic situation around xmas new year 1978/79 and we all know where that winter went.  Worth a check on the wetterzentrale noaa charts archive if your interested.

What happened in that winter 

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

What happened in that winter 

third coldest of the 20th century behind 1963 and 1947 and very snowy.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

What happened in that winter 

Bournemouth

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Bournemouth

That just how I remember it. I was Born and brought up there.

[Winterdarkness]

On 03/12/2020 at 08:49, mathematician said:

All downgraded as usual... 

 

If I had a quid every time I was promised a winter wonderland I would be living in Canada now, where the snow is real, not a dream like here in this perpetual autumn

I know! All these people are in for a shock! Mild wet and zonal 

[BarometerCat]

3 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

I know! All these people are in for a shock! Mild wet and zonal 

Wet, at times yes.  Mild, er no.  Zonal, whats that?  

Outlook at the moment is cold.