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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
    1 hour ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    Great Weather FORECASTER Want A REAL Laugh 

    1 hour ago, West is Best said:

    If you want a bit of a giggle watch the lovely Louise Lear right at the end of the latest forecast 😁

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

    2:22 onwards

     

    Wet and windy.  Can't stop laughing 

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I disagree. Terrier and Steve Murr just messaged me and said it’s definitely cold enough ❄️

     

    snowmaker for the 28th still there and it’s same position as the 06z run 

    AFE4809C-F7E4-49E9-8B4B-3400C08F1A49.jpeg

    B42CCA37-105F-4434-A8E9-D33AF80B8989.jpeg

    And unfortunately the snow graphs especially at that range are too unrealistic to make a forecast you will expect closer to the time to be reserved for high ground 

    And always the ECM is starting to show less amplification around Greenland area which is bad news 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    around -4, could be enough with low thicknesses, but as always hills favoured

    ECM0-144.GIF?21-0

    When I lived there in the mid seventies I remember loads of freezing fog and hoar frost and some great snow (takes rosy tinted glasses off) 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    36 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    Wet and windy.  Can't stop laughing 

    Did You Mean To Qoute Me. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Godstone Surrey
  • Location: Godstone Surrey

    The model thread is now full of useless clueless know it all 's ... whats happened to all the Pro's who gave solid guidance and advice regardless of the type of weather .sorry some are still there such as JH and Nick ....John must hold his head in despair!! The potential flooding and heavy rain forecast this week  barely gets a mention 

    The coldaphiles and some of the constant posters need their own thread 

    I am done !

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    35 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

    The potential flooding and heavy rain forecast this week  barely gets a mention

    I’m surprised this hasn’t been mentioned either. All this talk about finding a flake or two but at what cost? Wednesday looks particularly wet. 
     

    The MOD page reminds me of this sometimes 

    E689C33D-A343-4E52-8159-7C90BBCD8EBB.webp

     

    Edited by Josh Rubio
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Areas beginning to flood down here now. Rainfall is over 150mm for the month, with another deluge on the way.

    This December is turning out to be the worst since 2013.

    Just to add, quickly..

    You can see why the Met Office' warning contains uncertainty;

    viewimage.thumb.png.de1520759831029c77a2e520a47cd0f9.png

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    We may not be seeing the kind of pretty runs that we saw early in the month but I must admit that for the first time since Jan 19 I am getting reasonably excited for our prospects.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
    35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    nice overall run- however everything that comes in the cold / 'snowy' GFS runs requires the key of high pressure remaining in situ over Greenland or a wedge over Iceland > even if like the 18z its a low amplitude GH it does the trick-

    We are persistently seeing this modelled within the 192 > 240 outputs but once the resolution increases just like today we find energy spilling over the top keeping the high toppling.

    It seems our best chance cold for a long while but its not quite falling into place just yet...

    Hi Steve, 

    Long time no talk.

    We have been here so many times that i am hesitant to ramp too much. We know it can go pear shaped when we get within the reliable time frame. Things are looking very promising though so fingers crossed.

    One thing that, perhaps has been mentioned somewhere, is the greatly reduced number of  flights over the pandemic period might contribute to the reduction in world temperatures. This might help with lower temperatures this winter. I know there are lots of other positive contributing factors but just thought i would throw that one in as well. If i remember correctly, when 9/11 happened, and all US flights were grounded for 24 hours, the temps over there US dropped by 1c in that 24 hour period.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    4 hours ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

    The model thread is now full of useless clueless know it all 's ... whats happened to all the Pro's who gave solid guidance and advice regardless of the type of weather .sorry some are still there such as JH and Nick ....John must hold his head in despair!! The potential flooding and heavy rain forecast this week  barely gets a mention 

    The coldaphiles and some of the constant posters need their own thread 

    I am done !

     

     

     

    I hope this has nothing to do with me....

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
    5 hours ago, John Cox said:

    Hi Steve, 

    Long time no talk.

    We have been here so many times that i am hesitant to ramp too much. We know it can go pear shaped when we get within the reliable time frame. Things are looking very promising though so fingers crossed.

    One thing that, perhaps has been mentioned somewhere, is the greatly reduced number of  flights over the pandemic period might contribute to the reduction in world temperatures. This might help with lower temperatures this winter. I know there are lots of other positive contributing factors but just thought i would throw that one in as well. If i remember correctly, when 9/11 happened, and all US flights were grounded for 24 hours, the temps over there US dropped by 1c in that 24 hour period.

    Its just my opinion but add in the lack of the brown ring of pollution surrounding the earts atmosphere which I saw in a photo from space after 9/11 and you may allow more heat to be radiated to space more easily I feel we may end up with a more old fashioned winter with snow arriving between Christmas and New Year and the cold building and peaking in February.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    10 hours ago, Mapantz said:

    Areas beginning to flood down here now. Rainfall is over 150mm for the month, with another deluge on the way.

    This December is turning out to be the worst since 2013.

    Just to add, quickly..

    You can see why the Met Office' warning contains uncertainty;

    viewimage.thumb.png.de1520759831029c77a2e520a47cd0f9.png

    Yeah we really could do with several weeks of dry weather as the ground underfoot is completely sodden. Even my golf course which is on probably the driest ground in the area is almost unplayable. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

    Well there goes my seasonal Christmas. Would rather have zonality which would at least result in snowfall on higher grounds. What a horrible winter so far in Central Europe.

    image.thumb.png.bb56368a1971f2b843466c1ac4cc5040.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

    Never mind analysing chart after chart after chart.... the fact the model thread is silent at 7:30am is testament to a cool but dull Xmas day 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    18 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

    Never mind analysing chart after chart after chart.... the fact the model thread is silent at 7:30am is testament to a cool but dull Xmas day 

    Roasting! Models have been showing bright conditions for the day as well across many areas.

    42B8E022-F15C-41F9-AC28-7B36D5165FF3.thumb.png.15fe8d04387a93093e4c510652655543.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    I think people are now finally coming to realise next week will be a bit of nothingness snow wise, besides on hills. 

    All this talk of the uppers will be fine etc was all just people fooling themselves into false hope. Next week was never looking cold enough for snow for the majority of people. 

    Anything coming down from the NW requires much lower uppers, and what cold does come down pretty much gets washed out in that washing machine of a ball shaped low sitting over us.

    I want the cold and snow as much as anyone on here, but the reality is as nice as some of these charts might look. There's simply not enough cold air associated with them. Don't mean to sound like a grinch, but that's just my honest opinion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    11 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    I think people are now finally coming to realise next week will be a bit of nothingness snow wise, besides on hills. 

    All this talk of the uppers will be fine etc was all just people fooling themselves into false hope. Next week was never looking cold enough for snow for the majority of people. 

    Anything coming down from the NW requires much lower uppers, and what cold does come down pretty much gets washed out in that washing machine of a ball shaped low sitting over us.

    I want the cold and snow as much as anyone on here, but the reality is as nice as some of these charts might look. There's simply not enough cold air associated with them. Don't mean to sound like a grinch, but that's just my honest opinion.

    Agree sadly, only exciting for those in Buxton, or obvious Scottish folk, this setup on a few runs now has 4th Dec 2020 written all over it, and aye, not a flake here

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    Posted
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
    26 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    I think people are now finally coming to realise next week will be a bit of nothingness snow wise, besides on hills. 

    All this talk of the uppers will be fine etc was all just people fooling themselves into false hope. Next week was never looking cold enough for snow for the majority of people. 

    Anything coming down from the NW requires much lower uppers, and what cold does come down pretty much gets washed out in that washing machine of a ball shaped low sitting over us.

    I want the cold and snow as much as anyone on here, but the reality is as nice as some of these charts might look. There's simply not enough cold air associated with them. Don't mean to sound like a grinch, but that's just my honest opinion.

    Stick with the weekly Met Office 10 day trend and you’ll seldom be disappointed. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    rain rain and more rain forecast for here, nothing nice and wintry about that, i think the snow we had here 3/4 weeks ago is as good as its going to get this winter, so time to look forward to the rest of winter and lockdowns and restrictions, lol 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    This is the first time I have really noticed the Global Warning affect on our weather. Even 20 years ago, not a chance that such a chart would only bring -3/-4 uppers for most. This would be -5 everywhere with -10 into Scotland.

     

    ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    This is the first time I have really noticed the Global Warning affect on our weather. Even 20 years ago, not a chance that such a chart would only bring -3/-4 uppers for most. This would be -5 everywhere with -10 into Scotland.

     

    ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

     

    I'm not so sure about that..

    If you follow the streamlines back, they are simply not in a favourable position to drag in much colder air. 

    It would only need minor changes and it would be a different story.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Somehow - I don't think the Met Office is having any of this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
    4 hours ago, Sceptical said:

    Stick with the weekly Met Office 10 day trend and you’ll seldom be disappointed. 

     

    Basically we are wasting our time?!

    I'm fast approaching that point :santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
    18 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

    Basically we are wasting our time?!

    I'm fast approaching that point :santa-emoji:

    Roughly 5-10% of the posts are worth reading. Sort the chaff from the wheat and it's very informative.

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