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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    Too many folk on here moan, especially coldies.

    I can’t wait until we have 25c plus days, and we will get the same old people complaining about how it’s too hot, and it’s not normal lol.

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Is your glass half full or half empty?

    The models have now firmed up on a post Christmas cold spell (Half full) but we are not seeing a classic prolonged cold spell of weather programmed by any means yet. (Half empty)

    Based on current output.

    We should begin to draw in colder air from N from around the 27/28th but that air will not be sourced directly from the Arctic (Or of it is not for very long) and so ice days looks unlikely at this point but some, more especially in the N, should see snow falling even if it doesn't stick around. 

    As things stand the Atlantic ridge looks like slowly being degraded rather than getting a Greenland high, but not disastrously so since there could well be a renewed attack from the N after a brief milder spell and renewed amplification after any low pushes over the ridge. It is all too far out to do anything but speculate and there are all manner of possibilities some better, some worse.

     

    Overall I think we should be happy to have a shot at seeing some snow and the S is not excluded in that by any means even if it isn't a classic Winter pattern for now because it is far better than what we normally get and there is nothing to say the pattern will flatten in the New Year and that blocking will not re-strengthen. That is something to keep tabs on but there is currently no clear signal either way.

    In the meanwhile enjoy this 168 mean chart which we would have given our right arms for only two weeks ago.

    gensnh-31-1-168.png

     

     

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
    22 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    Too many folk on here moan, especially coldies.

    I can’t wait until we have 25c plus days, and we will get the same old people complaining about how it’s too hot, and it’s not normal lol.

    Read the thread title... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
    31 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Is your glass half full or half empty?

    The models have now firmed up on a post Christmas cold spell (Half full) but we are not seeing a classic prolonged cold spell of weather programmed by any means yet. (Half empty)

    Based on current output.

    We should begin to draw in colder air from N from around the 27/28th but that air will not be sourced directly from the Arctic (Or of it is not for very long) and so ice days looks unlikely at this point but some, more especially in the N, should see snow falling even if it doesn't stick around. 

    As things stand the Atlantic ridge looks like slowly being degraded rather than getting a Greenland high, but not disastrously so since there could well be a renewed attack from the N after a brief milder spell and renewed amplification after any low pushes over the ridge. It is all too far out to do anything but speculate and there are all manner of possibilities some better, some worse.

     

    Overall I think we should be happy to have a shot at seeing some snow and the S is not excluded in that by any means even if it isn't a classic Winter pattern for now because it is far better than what we normally get and there is nothing to say the pattern will flatten in the New Year and that blocking will not re-strengthen. That is something to keep tabs on but there is currently no clear signal either way.

    In the meanwhile enjoy this 168 mean chart which we would have given our right arms for only two weeks ago.

    gensnh-31-1-168.png

     

     

    Closer to now, what about 23rd on wards over Christmas?   Not super cold but maybe could feel a bit more seasonal with the odd chance of snow in places?  Being glass half full, this is a lot better than most recent years.   :santa-emoji:❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    14 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

    Summer 2020 wasn’t great. Granted, it was a nice sunny spring and early summer, and the sunniest spring spell with many clear blue sky days. Possibly the longest period of sunshine since 2018, but it was let down a bit from mid June until late July. Lots of cloudy days, made it disappointing.

    The very hot snap in August was balanced by the cooler dull second half and it was quite thundery at times.

    The best months for sunshine were April, although that was pretty chilly at times, even during the day, so I would hardly call it warm. May was very nice, and early June. 

    Summer was perfectly good, superb if you like compared to summers of 20 years ago. Especially when compared to many of our summers over the year. Yes, it rained very occasionally and was 'cooler' but at no point was this summer anything less than above average - it also lasted for about 6 months, not 3/4. Numerous heatwaves or days above 20c, hours and hours of sun - dry arid dusty ground. It was thoroughly mundane. Conversely, if you are a winter fan - how many days of Snow have been had during 'winter'. Compare that to the copious, endless, weeks of days involving Sun and 20C+ temps had from the middle of April until the latter of September - there's no argument to be had. Summer was great and nobody should be moaning, let alone spamming the mod thread every single day, 4 times a day for nearly 6 months with moans about a cirrus cloud forming, angles of degrees and exciting discussions on 0.1 temperature differences to what the models showed.

    Summer's are without doubt getting longer, drier, more humid. It's vile. Anti weather at it's finest, mostly enjoyed by those with a preference to life style rather than enjoyment of weather, which is a strange, strange old thing considering this is a weather forum. I personally hope summer is very active, very wet, short, below average temperatures with copious daily storms and trough after trough. Just preference. I'd sooner we had 23 hours of a day of hail and cold rain right bordering on sleet for 12 months of the year than suffer the numbing summer months. These last few have been hideously humid and miserable beyond measure. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Greenland high blocking, Polar low is possible if further runs are good.

    image.thumb.png.b57f26515865f428140b11096918a34b.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and Humid weather, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
    1 hour ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Summer was perfectly good, superb if you like compared to summers of 20 years ago.

    Locally it was the cloudiest summer on record. Every month had above average rain. July's average max was over 2°C below average.

    Now summer of 2020 was decent in the SE, according to stats I've seen there, but up here in South Yorks it was utter garbage. The 10-day summery spell of early August was followed by unseasonably cold weather in the second half too. I mean, how often do we have the cloudiest summer on record? Come on!

    It does seem that brief plumes can get hotter than usual lately but I've seen no statistical evidence that summers are getting sunnier, longer, drier etc... over the last 15 years especially, in fact often the opposite in fact. There's actually been a lot of very lousy notably wet and dull summers and summer months in that time, especially compared to 20 years ago.

    To list a few:

    June+July 2007 - notably wet and cloudy, floods claiming many lives.

    2008 - notably wet, and August the dullest on record.

    2009 - again notably wet.

    2010 - one of the cloudiest july's on record notably cool August.

    2011 - coolest summer in 23 years.

    2012 - exceptionally cool and wet cloudiest on record June, lives claimed in floods. July also exceptionally wet, cold and cloudy.

    2013 - cold June, but a decent July/August

    2014 - good start then a notably cold August

    2015 - poor, unsettled July/August in particular

    2016 - exceptionally cloudy June, rest was OK

    2017 - unsettled, and a cool August

    2018 - the only summer which actaully was decent all the way through

    2019 - very wet, exceptionally cloudy June

    2020 - cloudiest on record in many northern areas, wetter than average in all months in said areas, very cold July in many places.

    All based on the measured statistics - these don't support the argument about summers being any drier/hotter/sunnier at all, the facts don't agree with what you are saying.

    Edited by Thundershine
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and Humid weather, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
    1 hour ago, PolarWarsaw said:

     year than suffer the numbing summer months. These last few have been hideously humid and miserable beyond measure. 

    I do find statements like these a bit p!ss taking to be honest - we live in one of the countries with some of the coolest summers in the whole world (Scandinavia had a warmer summer than the UK for the most part this year, for example), and yet you moan as if we lived somewhere torrid and tropical like Singapore or Sudan. I think you really need to get some perspective - no offense intended. Millions of people are living in climates where their overnight low temperatures are higher than the summer maxes in this country, for goodness sake, and they get by OK.

    Edited by Thundershine
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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

    It's all about perspective really.

    Our Australian friends moan that our winters are too muddy and our stinging nettles are annoying in the summer. (To quote, "Why do you live in a country where the weeds actually attack you?". Yep, Australians, who come from the World's largest collection of poisionous things, actually said this.)

    A friend from Ohio came to visit us one summer...really did not like the cool weather and would not take his coat off, even though we were all in tee-shirts as we found 20c quite pleasant. "Too windy", was another complaint of his.

    So we do have little features of our climate that stand out to other people. Although mud, nettles and wind might not be good tag lines for our tourist board!

    Edited by Gord
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    8 minutes ago, Gord said:

    It's all about perspective really.

    Our Australian friends moan that our winters are too muddy and our stinging nettles are annoying in the summer. (To quote, "Why do you live in a country where the weeds actually attack you?". Yep, Australians, who come from the World's largest collection of poisionous things, actually said this.)

    A friend from Ohio came to visit us one summer...really did not like the cool weather and would not take his coat off, even though we were all in tee-shirts as we found 20c quite pleasant. "Too windy", was another complaint of his.

    So we do have little features of our climate that stand out to other people. Although mud, nettles and wind might not be good tag lines for our tourist board!

    I think our summers aren’t warm enough at times. I usually wear a jacket until it’s 22c, but it depends on the day. 22c and no wind can feel pleasantly warm, but 22c with cloud or a mix of cloud and a wind, can make it feel chilly. That’s just me though.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Could be building  a SNOWMAN,reading the Met Office  update,been a while...

     

    Welcome back dear SNOWMAN

     

    giphy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    I wear a jumper most of the year - it has to get stupid hot for me to get my arms out.

    Last summer was bang average really. The spring was beautiful though but July was god awful and again there was a complete dearth of storms.

     

    Anyway, I’m in two minds regarding snow potential this winter. Half of me wants to be buried in snow up to my first floor window but then half of me is a little concerned with the current Covid situation. I don’t like the idea of ambulances struggling in the icy conditions and people who are sick and need help being cut off.

    On the flip side, it should mean less people mixing which would be good.

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh

    Amplified is this years bingo buzzword, give yourself a drink each time you read it in the mod thread 

    you’ll be hammered in 15 mins 😄

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    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    The BBC Countryfile forecast - where are they getting their temperatures from? 

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    A different country.
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    A white Christmas run looking good don't be down, could bring Snow higher chance than last time when I had Snow at the same time out. 

    Merry Xmas:santa-emoji:

    ukmintemp.png

    ukmaxtemp.png

    0degisotherm (1).png

    uksnowrisk (1).png

    npst30.png

    prectypeuktopo.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

    Amplified is this years bingo buzzword, give yourself a drink each time you read it in the mod thread 

    you’ll be hammered in 15 mins 😄

    Be careful what you say, they will have the heavy mob around 🤣🤣🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Serious frothing in the MOD thread. I sincerely hope this Polar Low delivers. The lockdown is bad enough for members sanity. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    3 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

    Serious frothing in the MOD thread. I sincerely hope this Polar Low delivers. The lockdown is bad enough for members sanity. 

    Yes you'd think it was life and death sometimes. Guess I'm not committed enough or I should be commited🤣🤣🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, swfc said:

    Yes you'd think it was life and death sometimes. Guess I'm not committed enough or I should be commited🤣🤣🤣

    Maybe you should adopt the 'flounce' routine... declare winter to be 'over', leave the thread for a few days, come back with a one-liner and score 30 'likes'? You know it makes sense!?😆

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Maybe you should adopt the 'flounce' routine... declare winter to be 'over', leave the thread for a few days, come back with a one-liner and score 30 'likes'? You know it makes sense!?😆

    Yes GC good call, like lemmings to the slaughter 😁😁

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    3 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Yes GC good call, like lemmings to the slaughter 😁😁

     

    GC what happened to the footprint theory ete👀👀👀

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    14 minutes ago, swfc said:

     

    GC what happened to the footprint theory ete👀👀👀

    I think the wind blew snow into the tracks... image.thumb.png.c83ac72f8bd8b523e5f974cef851d06c.png  At least that's what the Men in Black told me!😆

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Anyone else thinking, "you know what, I think I'll just go with the GEM 12z"?

    gemnh-0-144.png

    gemnh-0-180 (1).png

    gemnh-0-240.png

    Why not pal, altho if its crap you can always change your mind eh!!!! 😁😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Seeing as I can't post in the Mod thread despite finally reading up on all Winter set ups I'll post here:santa-emoji:

    Down South hasn't seen a Snowy Christmas since we found out about Bread so for this to come up on the Models it's a shock. 

    1297232428_prectypeuktopo(1).thumb.png.8b3a61ab77c3481766a5826d9c493b95.png1453090498_npst30(1).thumb.png.c3789d6932387d07aa1731ddd8699977.png1862152993_uksnowrisk(2).thumb.png.a49559fb7207aa2c356347fecc549280.png803269004_0degisotherm(2).thumb.png.e324fa11956306aece5cebc900b49eed.png

    A long lasting Toppler on the Control run, with how long it lasts could lead to a Polar Low with this rather flimsy blocking. 

    gens-0-1-156.thumb.png.4252f539d3b616e3f6968f634ccff981.png

    1923303560_gens-0-1-174(1).thumb.png.5319cfdc49acd16f5b86e42ba847f31f.pnggens-0-1-186.thumb.png.1ba8361c293af94f3b761a4ca556e6dc.pnggens-0-1-228.thumb.png.b10b5608ae85d4eee6505a78472ad3bc.png

    Negative Arctic Oscillation is beggining to appear further on with a Southernly Jet probably won't happen but it Probably Will Be Happening Like That And Could Bring A Once In A Lifetime Snow Winter If It Goes Full Negative. 

    Only A Sign At The Moment But Getting Closer To Negative. 

    gensnh-0-1-372.thumb.png.c5b6173ed61d27b79f4e3db443eeee96.png

     

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