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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    Re above discussions. The BBC update posted by Summer Sun can be found here. And the Met Office further update here.

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    BBC and Met O links clarified
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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge

    What a horrible outlook for 2020 and into 2021; wet, windy and mild.

    Low after low dominating from the west with a jet stream ripping through the uk.

    Trend looks to continue well into January. That's the first half of winter wrapped up for the uk.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, cool in summer
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
    14 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

    The Met Office update posted by Summer Sun and discussed above can be found here.

    That's the BBC weather monthly outlook, not the MetO.  No wonder I was confused!

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
    34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    While watching yet another winter go down the toilet yesterday in the model output, I watched this:

    p08zhmbh.jpg
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    Chris Packham takes a look at the worst winter of the 20th century in 1963.

    It contains a 45 minute documentary from 1963 which I found fascinating, as it was 8 years before I was born.  Worth a look if you’ve got an hour to spare. 

    great stuff Mike , thanks for posting

     

    ( PS i think maybe Tight Isobar has hacked XanderP007 on the other thread ! classic nonsense)

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
    7 minutes ago, Simon M said:

    That's the BBC weather monthly outlook, not the MetO.  No wonder I was confused!

    Thanks Simon. I've edited my post (above) to now include both BBC and Met Off updates.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

    Back on track a good low quite far out though, who knows an even Lower Low(?) could happen. 

     

    gens-27-1-384 (2).png

    Yes lower lows do occur. I'm guessing there's a limit to how low a low can go tho👍

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    Still confident my prediction for a mild theme to dominate until Christmas will be spot on. 
     

    The new year until mid January is where I feel we will get a very cold plunge, similar to Feb 2018. 
     

    Personally, I wouldn’t want another 1963, as much as I like the snow. Not a fan of persistent bitter cold. That’s even worse than longer spells of hot weather in my book. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    1 hour ago, DCee said:

    What a horrible outlook for 2020 and into 2021; wet, windy and mild.

    Low after low dominating from the west with a jet stream ripping through the uk.

    Trend looks to continue well into January. That's the first half of winter wrapped up for the uk.

    Sounds great to me! Love a wet and windy Christmas like 2013 (might have been '14). Although I wish you and all your fellow 'snowies' the best of luck for a cold January/February to your tastes 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
  • Location: Bratislava (240m)
    1 hour ago, DCee said:

    What a horrible outlook for 2020 and into 2021; wet, windy and mild.

    Low after low dominating from the west with a jet stream ripping through the uk.

    Trend looks to continue well into January. That's the first half of winter wrapped up for the uk.

    It's not even 15th December yet never mind 15th January. How is the first half of winter "wrapped up"? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 hour ago, DCee said:

    What a horrible outlook for 2020 and into 2021; wet, windy and mild.

    Low after low dominating from the west with a jet stream ripping through the uk.

    Trend looks to continue well into January. That's the first half of winter wrapped up for the uk.

    What's new! welcome to new millennium, 2010 the exception really

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    While watching yet another winter go down the toilet yesterday in the model output, I watched this:

    p08zhmbh.jpg
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    Chris Packham takes a look at the worst winter of the 20th century in 1963.

    It contains a 45 minute documentary from 1963 which I found fascinating, as it was 8 years before I was born.  Worth a look if you’ve got an hour to spare. 

    Despite the fact we are only in the 2nd week of Winter🤣

    Maybe this year we get a repeat of 63🥶

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

    Despite the fact we are only in the 2nd week of Winter🤣

    Maybe this year we get a repeat of 63🥶

    More likely to get 63 days of rain

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
    4 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Being active in the Model thread last night, I should have moved/hidden some of the posts in their to be honest. I admit I’m not so good at telling members off and is something I could be better at.

    After all, sniping and off topic posts don’t have their place in their or any other thread, although I think having a post that is slightly off-topic, including yours, being moved/deleted feels unfair. Different if it was mostly/fully off topic, or was insulting. But not really if it’s just a little off topic. Sometimes, posts that have some off topic chat in it could just be edited out rather than have the whole post wiped out.

    I think the things is as well, if someone is new, or is a longer term member, regardless whether they have much knowledge or not, and they want to try describing what the models show, they deserve to be cut some slack. Even if their is some banter or off-topicness to their post. Otherwise new members, and long time lurkers who have never posted in the Model Output Discussion area before, could feel put off taking part in that thread.

    Posts like yours to me are appreciated (even if I might not always follow through on people’s complaints or suggestions in here) 🙂, as it makes me realise how things in this place could be improved and made fairer for all. I like to think we try our best and let things run smoothly, but I think there are things that could be better. That includes moderators, like myself, not having a preference towards certain members posts leaving any unsuitable content they do to be left untouched. Because again that does feel like we have agendas towards particular posters and that’s not fair for everyone else, really

    Thanks for this.

    I have had some healthy debate on this with Paul via messages earlier.

    I won't go into any detail about what was said on either side,other than to say there was a frank and cordial exchange of views on the issues raised in my post that was moved out of the model discussion and placed here, quite rightly as it was off topic.

    All moderators are going to have their own take on what is acceptable in terms of going off topic I guess,whilst operating within the guidelines.

    The rare occasions I post in there perhaps the moderater is more of an enforcer!

    Edited by sunnijim
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    Lol it’s funny how some of the coldies on here moan about the lack of cold. It was fairly cold up until recently, but as soon as we have several days to a week of 10c or above, it’s back to writing the winter off. 

    These are the same folk who whine about how hot and uncomfortable our summers have become, after just a few days or a week of temps into the high 20s and low 30s.

    Not all of us want to live in a permanent damp dreary cool climate. 
     

    And to add, summer 2020 in the main wasn’t great, it started off ok, but June and July were poor for sunshine levels, while August was the best month for heat, and slightly let down by the dull and cooler second half.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, cool in summer
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
    22 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    Winter is still winter in my book, with all the darkness. 

    And summer is still summer, with the birds chirping outside my window at 4AM!  😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent - 25m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, heat aka summer + snow
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent - 25m asl
    17 minutes ago, Simon M said:

    And summer is still summer, with the birds chirping outside my window at 4AM!  😂

    Early bird gets the worm and all that 😄 

    depends on what kind of person you are when it comes to daylight hours, at the moment if there is no proper cold to take advantage of the shortest days of the year, what’s the point?

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    2 hours ago, swfc said:

    Yes lower lows do occur. I'm guessing there's a limit to how low a low can go tho👍

    So a low can go low but can't go low low low because that low would be too low. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

    Great to see the models picking up that cool down near Christmas, that’s makes this time of year plus model watching enjoyable. Caution is as always still out in FI, could change yes of course etc...And it will not be our only chance necessarily!

     December is not looking to be a ‘mild’ month IMO but guess that depends on interpretation of ‘mild’ and the IMBY factor.  Still no sign of horror show plumes or endless SW winds? Lots to be positive about :santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Said a few weeks with with cold slowly building this winter,with a major outbreak at end of this Month.🥶

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    14 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    Despite the fact we are only in the 2nd week of Winter🤣

    Maybe this year we get a repeat of 63🥶

    No I don’t think we will, but I see another 1987 or 1991 happening, or at the very least another feb 2009 or 2018 spell. Not until after new year though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: wigan
  • Location: wigan

    Morning.  I'm going to buck the trend here. I know I'm a newbie here, but really you all been bought up on computer modelling which I don't agree with. Your all trying to look for signs ,like trying to determine when a volcano is going to erupt. Weather is a natural part of our planet. It is to nature and local observations you should be acquired and is healthier than  sitting stuck on screen in central heating.

    The weather climate I started getting to in 1963 was vastly different to what it has become since the early nineties. I was bought up bill Giles and Michael fish analogue times. I got my information from the fishing forecast and my home made instruments. I was lucky to live within miles of the royal Sovereign Lightship off Eastbourne coast. I always remember Emmerich's Day After Tomorrow film from 2004. That was surprisingly fairly spot on today's events, however even Jack Halls model was totally wrong. Instead of a new ice bound world, we have had the opposite. Scorched earth instead.

    Southern England where I come from in the South East once had the bitter winters around between 1950-1983.  Blizzards were frequent , blowing in from the near continent on strong South Easterly winds, 1 in every 3 winters. Snow piled up regularly in he seventies, cutting off the Downs, this also included heavy snow across Holland and the low countries.

    The big picture for me is that prevailing wind flows are changing. Eastbourne was the sun trap of the South coast. However winters were brutal and no plants along our sea front ever survived our winters. Huge flocks of green finches, blackbirds robins the tit family, and wrens descended on our bird table's every morning. Many died from the extreme cold. And 1963 a staggering 94% of the Wren population perished.

    Two observations are pertinent. Hot summers like 1976 were still tempered by East winds lighty blowing across the country making the UK still a temperate climate. But we don't get those now for many years. In summer we turn Mediterranean because our predominant winds are now coming from North Africa, meaning the cooling East winds are blocked out.

    Conversely , Sussex has lost those bitter normal continental air for such a long time now. Palm trees are naturalising in South coast easier resorts, because of the lack of normal Russian bitter East airflows. Siberia is not what it was, thanks to many huge forest fires in many parts of the world, including the ones in northern Russia. Fast melting huge ice sheets melting perma frost in America and Siberia are allowing Methane in ever larger volumes to escape into the atmosphere, adding to the ongoing global warming

    In closing. Although I'm snow mad, to wish for a severe winter in the UK should not be encouraged. Many here fail to take on board, that for many years now house ownership has declined rapidly since the 1960 70 era. In the 1963 winter we survived pretty well including the elderly like I am now. The reason for that is we had many sources of energy to call upon especially in Sussex where power cuts were many in snowy winters. We had our coal fires that also have us hot baths washing up water and upstairs sinks while we got ready for school. Everybody had gas cookers then. Our upstairs landings had two paraffin heaters going at night.

    Now you look at today's heating methods. 70% of dwellings mostly flats have only ONE heating source and that's electricity. That extremely dangerous. With no other way  to even make tea or use a microwave.  Once power cuts start, not even your mobile phone can be charged, that's a worry for people  who use one instead of a safer land line And no other heating source. The fatality rate of family's and elderly would be catastrophic. The national grid hardly copes as it is. I would add caution for bitter seventies winters returning, this country is now even more unequipped to keep residents safe and transport running in this age.

    As it is. I don't see any return to Beasts from the East's , until runaway emmisions are drastically reduced.. The  pessimistic expert take recently. Points to snow of any kind in southern England will soon be a thing of the past. Immensely sad for kids of today who never made 5feet igloos and snowmen regularly that lasted at least 10 days. Younger posters on here, should remember that November the 5th guy Fawkes was often very cold and frosty. Scarves. Gloves, and duffle coats were the order of the day, with the bonfire to keep us warm, before retiring inside the warm kitchen for hot dogs. Don't be drawn into armchair meteorologist s. Go out in the country and study local pointers and natural events. Trying to look at weather patterns from hocus pocus yuppie named models will only make you more frustrated.🎅🎅

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    17 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

    Morning.  I'm going to buck the trend here. I know I'm a newbie here, but really you all been bought up on computer modelling which I don't agree with. Your all trying to look for signs ,like trying to determine when a volcano is going to erupt. Weather is a natural part of our planet. It is to nature and local observations you should be acquired and is healthier than  sitting stuck on screen in central heating.

    The weather climate I started getting to in 1963 was vastly different to what it has become since the early nineties. I was bought up bill Giles and Michael fish analogue times. I got my information from the fishing forecast and my home made instruments. I was lucky to live within miles of the royal Sovereign Lightship off Eastbourne coast. I always remember Emmerich's Day After Tomorrow film from 2004. That was surprisingly fairly spot on today's events, however even Jack Halls model was totally wrong. Instead of a new ice bound world, we have had the opposite. Scorched earth instead.

    Southern England where I come from in the South East once had the bitter winters around between 1950-1983.  Blizzards were frequent , blowing in from the near continent on strong South Easterly winds, 1 in every 3 winters. Snow piled up regularly in he seventies, cutting off the Downs, this also included heavy snow across Holland and the low countries.

    The big picture for me is that prevailing wind flows are changing. Eastbourne was the sun trap of the South coast. However winters were brutal and no plants along our sea front ever survived our winters. Huge flocks of green finches, blackbirds robins the tit family, and wrens descended on our bird table's every morning. Many died from the extreme cold. And 1963 a staggering 94% of the Wren population perished.

    Two observations are pertinent. Hot summers like 1976 were still tempered by East winds lighty blowing across the country making the UK still a temperate climate. But we don't get those now for many years. In summer we turn Mediterranean because our predominant winds are now coming from North Africa, meaning the cooling East winds are blocked out.

    Conversely , Sussex has lost those bitter normal continental air for such a long time now. Palm trees are naturalising in South coast easier resorts, because of the lack of normal Russian bitter East airflows. Siberia is not what it was, thanks to many huge forest fires in many parts of the world, including the ones in northern Russia. Fast melting huge ice sheets melting perma frost in America and Siberia are allowing Methane in ever larger volumes to escape into the atmosphere, adding to the ongoing global warming

    In closing. Although I'm snow mad, to wish for a severe winter in the UK should not be encouraged. Many here fail to take on board, that for many years now house ownership has declined rapidly since the 1960 70 era. In the 1963 winter we survived pretty well including the elderly like I am now. The reason for that is we had many sources of energy to call upon especially in Sussex where power cuts were many in snowy winters. We had our coal fires that also have us hot baths washing up water and upstairs sinks while we got ready for school. Everybody had gas cookers then. Our upstairs landings had two paraffin heaters going at night.

    Now you look at today's heating methods. 70% of dwellings mostly flats have only ONE heating source and that's electricity. That extremely dangerous. With no other way  to even make tea or use a microwave.  Once power cuts start, not even your mobile phone can be charged, that's a worry for people  who use one instead of a safer land line And no other heating source. The fatality rate of family's and elderly would be catastrophic. The national grid hardly copes as it is. I would add caution for bitter seventies winters returning, this country is now even more unequipped to keep residents safe and transport running in this age.

    As it is. I don't see any return to Beasts from the East's , until runaway emmisions are drastically reduced.. The  pessimistic expert take recently. Points to snow of any kind in southern England will soon be a thing of the past. Immensely sad for kids of today who never made 5feet igloos and snowmen regularly that lasted at least 10 days. Younger posters on here, should remember that November the 5th guy Fawkes was often very cold and frosty. Scarves. Gloves, and duffle coats were the order of the day, with the bonfire to keep us warm, before retiring inside the warm kitchen for hot dogs. Don't be drawn into armchair meteorologist s. Go out in the country and study local pointers and natural events. Trying to look at weather patterns from hocus pocus yuppie named models will only make you more frustrated.🎅🎅

     

     

     

     

     

     

    You seem to be making observations based on Historical events! You say most of us were born with computer technology! I think many of us were still in the Telegram era when we were young. There is also a difference of many of us on here searching for a good cold snap and snow, and wishing for a 63 event... Yes that's very unlikely, but a possibility all the same. All extreme events of any nature will cause alot of human suffering at some point, extreme cold, extreme heat, drought.. It is what it is... Some of us ain't seen snow for several years, and would happily take a 2018 repeat for a few days. You make some good points, but I don't see many on here encouraging a 63 re run. 

    I think your basing that anology towards the end of your post on what the chief scientist of the Met said the other day.. Ice and snow days being made redundant by the 2040s in the South. Perhaps a tad early for me, but for sure we are heading in that direction if urgent action is not admitted ASAP.. China, Russia, India, USA take note, follow the UKs lead and make us all breathe better again.. Worrying times though. 

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Brynmawr
  • Location: Brynmawr
    30 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

    Morning.  I'm going to buck the trend here. I know I'm a newbie here, but really you all been bought up on computer modelling which I don't agree with. Your all trying to look for signs ,like trying to determine when a volcano is going to erupt. Weather is a natural part of our planet. It is to nature and local observations you should be acquired and is healthier than  sitting stuck on screen in central heating.

    The weather climate I started getting to in 1963 was vastly different to what it has become since the early nineties. I was bought up bill Giles and Michael fish analogue times. I got my information from the fishing forecast and my home made instruments. I was lucky to live within miles of the royal Sovereign Lightship off Eastbourne coast. I always remember Emmerich's Day After Tomorrow film from 2004. That was surprisingly fairly spot on today's events, however even Jack Halls model was totally wrong. Instead of a new ice bound world, we have had the opposite. Scorched earth instead.

    Southern England where I come from in the South East once had the bitter winters around between 1950-1983.  Blizzards were frequent , blowing in from the near continent on strong South Easterly winds, 1 in every 3 winters. Snow piled up regularly in he seventies, cutting off the Downs, this also included heavy snow across Holland and the low countries.

    The big picture for me is that prevailing wind flows are changing. Eastbourne was the sun trap of the South coast. However winters were brutal and no plants along our sea front ever survived our winters. Huge flocks of green finches, blackbirds robins the tit family, and wrens descended on our bird table's every morning. Many died from the extreme cold. And 1963 a staggering 94% of the Wren population perished.

    Two observations are pertinent. Hot summers like 1976 were still tempered by East winds lighty blowing across the country making the UK still a temperate climate. But we don't get those now for many years. In summer we turn Mediterranean because our predominant winds are now coming from North Africa, meaning the cooling East winds are blocked out.

    Conversely , Sussex has lost those bitter normal continental air for such a long time now. Palm trees are naturalising in South coast easier resorts, because of the lack of normal Russian bitter East airflows. Siberia is not what it was, thanks to many huge forest fires in many parts of the world, including the ones in northern Russia. Fast melting huge ice sheets melting perma frost in America and Siberia are allowing Methane in ever larger volumes to escape into the atmosphere, adding to the ongoing global warming

    In closing. Although I'm snow mad, to wish for a severe winter in the UK should not be encouraged. Many here fail to take on board, that for many years now house ownership has declined rapidly since the 1960 70 era. In the 1963 winter we survived pretty well including the elderly like I am now. The reason for that is we had many sources of energy to call upon especially in Sussex where power cuts were many in snowy winters. We had our coal fires that also have us hot baths washing up water and upstairs sinks while we got ready for school. Everybody had gas cookers then. Our upstairs landings had two paraffin heaters going at night.

    Now you look at today's heating methods. 70% of dwellings mostly flats have only ONE heating source and that's electricity. That extremely dangerous. With no other way  to even make tea or use a microwave.  Once power cuts start, not even your mobile phone can be charged, that's a worry for people  who use one instead of a safer land line And no other heating source. The fatality rate of family's and elderly would be catastrophic. The national grid hardly copes as it is. I would add caution for bitter seventies winters returning, this country is now even more unequipped to keep residents safe and transport running in this age.

    As it is. I don't see any return to Beasts from the East's , until runaway emmisions are drastically reduced.. The  pessimistic expert take recently. Points to snow of any kind in southern England will soon be a thing of the past. Immensely sad for kids of today who never made 5feet igloos and snowmen regularly that lasted at least 10 days. Younger posters on here, should remember that November the 5th guy Fawkes was often very cold and frosty. Scarves. Gloves, and duffle coats were the order of the day, with the bonfire to keep us warm, before retiring inside the warm kitchen for hot dogs. Don't be drawn into armchair meteorologist s. Go out in the country and study local pointers and natural events. Trying to look at weather patterns from hocus pocus yuppie named models will only make you more frustrated.🎅🎅

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Very blinkered view and incorrect on many points.  Look back at the UK weather records and you will see many mild winters registered. You could look at the 1800’s and see 3, 4 mild winters in a row.  You mentioned the 70’s winters being cold, not true, there was a snow drought for much of the 70’s which ended in 78.  You say beasts from the east won’t happen.  What about 2018!  To say that snow is a thing of the past is madness, it’s only 10 years ago when we had the coldest December in over 100 years!  If you look at the history of the Uk weather, you will see that it’s variable, due to our geographical position.

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    Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
    28 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

    Very blinkered view and incorrect on many points.  Look back at the UK weather records and you will see many mild winters registered. You could look at the 1800’s and see 3, 4 mild winters in a row.  You mentioned the 70’s winters being cold, not true, there was a snow drought for much of the 70’s which ended in 78.  You say beasts from the east won’t happen.  What about 2018!  To say that snow is a thing of the past is madness, it’s only 10 years ago when we had the coldest December in over 100 years!  If you look at the history of the Uk weather, you will see that it’s variable, due to our geographical position.

    He's absolutely right about one thing though , and that is about our dependence upon electricity for our heating ,No power= no heating .You have to have lived through it to remember that very few ordinary households back in the 60's/80s etc had central heating. All we had was one coal fire in the living room, the point being was that you could always light one to keep warm.  We didn't have a pot to p...s in when we were kids , but I don't remember sitting there cold even in the most severe winters . 

    The councils switched over to gas fires during the 90's which removed peoples options on keeping warm, and immediately threw people into the clutches of the Gas companies irrespective of whether they could afford it or not.  In our previous house we had a wood burner, and a couple of years ago our boiler packed up, all I done was to get a couple of loads of logs in for about £250 and used the immersion heater for the hot water, that gave me a bit of time to save up a couple of thousand for a new boiler.  Will  be getting one put in to this place as well.  If we did  have a 47 or 63 repeat, together with power cuts and extremely low temperatures, there would be a lot of very cold people about. 

     

     

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