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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    ...AND ON THE 11TH DEC👏

    but i see your sarcasm😏

    there is much to play for looking at the day ten gefs ens>

    Agree 100% I'm all in for festive Northerly still quite possible my post above is take it with a pinch of salt post, went to the pub this evening for the first time in months come back almost all big hitters folded like a deck of cards.😄

    Edited by booferking
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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Toys out the pram in the model thread lol. 

    Winter is over folks on the 12th December  according to some posters in their. 

    Thrown the towel in already, how pathetic, even the more knowledgeable as well. 

    Some posters are going to be eating a lot of crow, if we get one severe outbreak this Winter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    26 minutes ago, Simon M said:

    It's mid December...

    Missing his point November 2009 was mild and extremely wet the winter which followed was coldest since 1978/79.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    7 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Problem is many on here are addicted to the snow chase and particularly looking at that GFS (Garbage Fantasy Service) 4 times a day which is about as close as we come to seeing decent synoptics for cold i.e. at 384z and it doesn't matter how bad the teleconnections are, fine if you want to be disappointed more than 9 times out of 10...things are only going to get even worse. In another 10 years it will be a frost chase. 🙂

    Absolutely and a hand full of cold rampers who act as self appointed experts lead others astray because they hang on every word these rampers say, despite them being wrong most of the time. 🤐

    Edited by Paul
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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    57 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    59 years on this planet and have lived in Bristol and/or S Glos all my life. Early March 2018 (less than 3 years ago) was the most snowy, cold period (minus 2c at 2 oclock in the afternoon on the snowiest day) in March i've ever experienced for these parts; it was truly exceptional, and so, yes, it can happen even in these so-called snowless times. Since 1961, nothing in March has beaten it for my locality, in terms of snow and cold.

    I mentioned this in another thread. The 1st March 2018 was the fourth coldest March day for central England since 1772. That's simply astonishing.

    It wasn't a prolonged spell, but it certainly proves that the British Isles are still capable of experiencing extraordinarily cold synoptics.

    With that said, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the UK will see another sub-zero Winter month. IMO It's not a matter of if, but when. Hopefully I'm not wrong.

    Edited by Relativistic
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    Posted
  • Location: Richmond, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, frost and thunderstorms
  • Location: Richmond, North Yorkshire
    3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes Matt, and @chionomaniac, I am on the verge of calling time on this winter, and this is very unusual for me.  I would like to explain why.  

    It is the Met Office and their model, GloSea5.  If it predicts mild with certainty it has never been wrong, as far as i can see (going to back to since it was GloSea4).  Last year it was right, and the reason was the Indian Ocean Dipole.  I had never even heard of it and it delivered and then some.  The only time GloSea5 has been totally wrong has been, yes you’ve guessed it, when it has forecast cold.  I think it was 2016/17 winter, all looking good and then winter over by about 7 Dec if I recall correctly, wasn’t posting at the time much, @CreweCold will remember, as he was quite vociferous about it.  

    I’m concerned about our hobby.  If UK winter can be predicted like this, what is the point?  It removes the rush when something unexpected happens.  Analogy to gambling.  I like gambling, it gives me a rush.  Around year 2000 i had inside info into certain pub fruit machines and could make a regular profit, and guess what it wasn’t much fun, if you know you are going to win or lose it takes away the experience.  

    I think that is half way to where we are with winter now, unfortunately, we now know if we haven’t got a cat in hells chance of a cold winter half the years, but we don’t know, in the other years, if we’ve got a chance, maybe, maybe not.  I’m sure GloSea7 will be soon able to close off that element of our uncertainty and fun and novelty of proper wintery weather.  When I was a child, to find it had snowed overnight and flakes still falling in the morning, it was magical.  Now, it hardly ever happens, and in the future GloSea7 will tell you which day of which month you might next expect that unlikely event to happen.  

    All the best, Mike

    I think this is the irony of our technical evolution. One day we may have it pretty much pinned down. It’s a horrid paradox that then makes this an almost pointless exercise. The hunt for cold, for those that want it is I think linked to our childhood experiences and happy memories of snow. It’s apparently increasingly difficult for us to get that which is a horrid shame. But I think it’s actually worse that we could end up being so accurate with our forecasting tools that the surprise of snow when not expected is taken away. Always troubled me and I’m not surprised I’m not the only one. An almost poignant post Mike. 
     

    Keep safe all

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    Wow there really is a deflated mood in here tonight. I’m partly putting it down to the stressful and difficult year we’ve all been through which is maybe making people a little more frustrated and downbeat than usual. I say that because there is nothing unusual about a lack of cold prospects showing in the models in winter and nothing unusual in us getting our hopes up only to be let down. It happens most winters. This is the UK after all. I suspect and hope those people who are taking a break/claiming to bow out will be back. 
     

    Is winter over? Ofcourse not, it’s the 11th of December.

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    A lot of doom and gloom on here tonight. Semi warranted but completely overboard in the sense that we have seen a setback rather than a cancellation of winter completely.

    I said a couple of days ago that I was worried we'd miss the boat with this attempt- and we have. The upstream pattern collapsed flat at precisely the wrong time- some may say it's not bad luck but that's exactly what it is...bad luck. Any other Nina year and we wouldn't have had that issue. It is what it is.

    Now moving forward, I completely agree with @Catacol in that we still have a window for something decent last week of Dec and first week of Jan. 

    After that we need to look to any potential SSW.

    I'll also just add that in 2006-2007 (lauded as one of the worst winters in modern times for snow) I got my heaviest and deepest snowfall I've ever seen here to this day. 

    Awesome points made. Let's keep Positive (note to self!!) still reckon after 18th changes are afoot. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    7 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

    Awesome points made. Let's keep Positive (note to self!!) still reckon after 18th changes are afoot. 

    @CreweCold needs a cold winter though, he pinned his colours to the mast early doors and was adamant this year would be a good’un! Not having a pop there by the way. I’d like a nice winter as much as the next person, but the last few days have had that sinking feeling setting in again. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    3 minutes ago, Wynter said:

    Some of the comments in this thread over the past few hours are quite telling. Some of you need to have a word with yourselves.

    I think a lot of frustration is being shown. I guess most want a spell of wintry weather esp near Xmas but I don't find or understand the stress some endure. It's only weather after all 🙄🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    I really despair of the this forum at times, as much as I enjoy reviewing it daily, this morning there is again page after page of non model related discussion.

    People moaning and having a go at each other all allowed to remain in place here!

    The disappointment from me comes from the fact that the moment I have ever put something here slightly off topic ( recent replys to the localised snowfall) it gets shifted as off topic!

    Fair enough I think, even though my attempts to join the debate here snuffed out once again, I can't post 'on topic' as much as I would like because I'm simply not as knowledgeable as most here.

    Please,if there are rules,enforce them properly.

    Easy to moderate a 'Sunnijim' who rarely posts,not so easy to upset a self styled 'big hitter' perhaps?

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    6 hours ago, danm said:

    Wow there really is a deflated mood in here tonight. I’m partly putting it down to the stressful and difficult year we’ve all been through which is maybe making people a little more frustrated and downbeat than usual. I say that because there is nothing unusual about a lack of cold prospects showing in the models in winter and nothing unusual in us getting our hopes up only to be let down. It happens most winters. This is the UK after all. I suspect and hope those people who are taking a break/claiming to bow out will be back. 
     

    Is winter over? Ofcourse not, it’s the 11th of December.

    this winter was supposed to be frontloaded one and it failed to deliver with basically nothing in the ensembles until after Christmas at least nor do the seasonal models offer any real hope for Jan-Mar which basically show the same as the ensembles 😞

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    11 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

    I really despair of the this forum at times, as much as I enjoy reviewing it daily, this morning there is again page after page of non model related discussion.

    People moaning and having a go at each other all allowed to remain in place here!

    The disappointment from me comes from the fact that the moment I have ever put something here slightly off topic ( recent replys to the localised snowfall) it gets shifted as off topic!

    Fair enough I think, even though my attempts to join the debate here snuffed out once again, I can't post 'on topic' as much as I would like because I'm simply not as knowledgeable as most here.

    Please,if there are rules,enforce them properly.

    Easy to moderate a 'Sunnijim' who rarely posts,not so easy to upset a self styled 'big hitter' perhaps?

    This post is almost word for word how i felt last night when my second post in 3 was removed, although at least I had message to explain why for a change, i was lost in the irony of some posts which were left on the thread by the more regular posters. One liner SM a classic example.

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    5 minutes ago, LRD said:

    For this morning's serving of GFS spaghetti, I give net weather model-watchers this dish straight from the ensemble kitchen...

    image.thumb.png.1f99c910c77a930292a467ccf2c06acf.png

    Much better tasting than the last few runs from 21/22 Dec. I realise it's not Michelin-restaurant standard, just yet, and there is room for improvement but hopefully the winter chef will be in over the next few weeks and working over Xmas and the taste of this spaghetti gets better and better

    Right, I've run out of food analogies, so I'll leave it there. Have a good Saturday everyone

    Let's hope the spaghetti gets covered in sauce. Snowflake Sauce then 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Richmond, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, frost and thunderstorms
  • Location: Richmond, North Yorkshire
    36 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

    I really despair of the this forum at times, as much as I enjoy reviewing it daily, this morning there is again page after page of non model related discussion.

    People moaning and having a go at each other all allowed to remain in place here!

    The disappointment from me comes from the fact that the moment I have ever put something here slightly off topic ( recent replys to the localised snowfall) it gets shifted as off topic!

    Fair enough I think, even though my attempts to join the debate here snuffed out once again, I can't post 'on topic' as much as I would like because I'm simply not as knowledgeable as most here.

    Please,if there are rules,enforce them properly.

    Easy to moderate a 'Sunnijim' who rarely posts,not so easy to upset a self styled 'big hitter' perhaps?

    I think you are absolutely right about the digs at one another. I know we can get frustrated but as a few have said it’s only a hobby and as disappointing as it can be there’s just no need to do it. The thrill of the chase is as much a part of it and although the chase has yet to bear any fruit things don’t always go the way we want it. Only a few days ago most were content. It’s gone wrong but I do concur with the approach that in the grand scheme of things it’s not something that warrants such negative responses. It does detract from a great thread. One that has given a great deal of pleasure over the years and I know many of us. Christmas is on the approach everyone and I hope all have a great one.

    best,

    RealSnowman

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    39 minutes ago, LRD said:

    For this morning's serving of GFS spaghetti, I give net weather model-watchers this dish straight from the ensemble kitchen...

     

    Much better tasting than the last few runs from 21/22 Dec. I realise it's not Michelin-restaurant standard, just yet, and there is room for improvement but hopefully the winter chef will be in over the next few weeks and working over Xmas and the taste of this spaghetti gets better and better

    Right, I've run out of food analogies, so I'll leave it there. Have a good Saturday everyone

    We need a hot oven baking the polar stratosphere to save this winter, we dont need the fan part of the oven on the cornwall coast facing the UK like we usually get most winters.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

    How can this winter have failed to deliver on the front loaded predictions when it hasn’t happened yet? Loads of reaction to things that have been modelled or guessed at in some cases. 

    Why not wait it things have happened, you cannot change the path of weather by getting angry with it, the models don’t control it either. Neither do some posters... 

    also front loaded v back loaded predictions??? Are these pointless? Never really known one to be entirely right!

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    I'd like my spaghetti clumped together below zero degrees, which sounds awful to eat I'll add!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    29 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

    How can this winter have failed to deliver on the front loaded predictions when it hasn’t happened yet? Loads of reaction to things that have been modelled or guessed at in some cases. 

    Why not wait it things have happened, you cannot change the path of weather by getting angry with it, the models don’t control it either. Neither do some posters... 

    also front loaded v back loaded predictions??? Are these pointless? Never really known one to be entirely right!

    Fair points there @Barometer Cat, we cannae, of course, technically write off a front-loaded winter this early in proceedings... But we can worry:

    Like a game of chess (stay awake now?) the Snow Queen's gambit has already been played, and the days are running out... and I wouldn't want to see an entire winter loaded into the next 19 days, in any case!

    Well, there's another good reason why I gave up with making winter-predictions -- the emotional cost of all the mental gymnastics, in trying to justify/defend something that had invariably gone tits-up by Xmas, was simply too much...😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    We need a hot oven baking the polar stratosphere to save this winter, we dont need the fan part of the oven on the cornwall coast facing the UK like we usually get most winters.

    An 'oven-ready' winter would be nice, feb?:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    I wrote a post and then lost it .....

    amyway .....looking better for coldies post Xmas ......

     

    The problem is it's always a long time and eventually it will be Early January then middle of January and so on 

    Perhaps hopes of a somewhat chilly Xmas? If anything I take a dry one if else 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    3 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

    To be fair, it’s only easterlies that really deliver the goods, for most of the UK, so let’s hope models firm up on the real deal.  Remember, the models have never handled easterlies well, they tend to appear at short notice.

    Easterlies deliver more like bone-dry continental cold, what we need is more like N-NE with moisture. At least for my position (Germany) 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Easterlies deliver more like bone-dry continental cold, what we need is more like N-NE with moisture. At least for my position (Germany) 🙂

    It's that dry cold air that helps us here lol, it goes over the North sea, picks up moisture, and dumps it on eastern UK as snow, but only if Europe is cold obviously.

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

    It's that dry cold air that helps us here lol, it goes over the North sea, picks up moisture, and dumps it on eastern UK as snow, but only if Europe is cold obviously.

    Yes, some nice Lake Effect snowfalls is the cherry on that cup cake 🙂

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