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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    2 minutes ago, Wynter said:

    I Don't think posts like this help. Especially from a MOD. It just stirs the pot which breeds negativity on the forum, something you should surely be trying to steer clear of.

    Help what?

    Just stating a fact in the banter thread.. it happens every year!

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    I swear, reading through many of the comments, a lot of people believe we live within the arctic circle. I remember many of the winters of the late 70's and 80's and believe me not a lot has changed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
    Just now, Mapantz said:

    Help what?

    Just stating a fact in the banter thread.. it happens every year!

    "Winter moans, ramps and chat". I don't think that means mentioning other posters, or what they might say.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    Just now, Wynter said:

    "Winter moans, ramps and chat". I don't think that means mentioning other posters, or what they might say.

    I haven't mentioned any posters, have I? No official secrets acts have been broken as far as I am aware?

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    59 minutes ago, SteveB said:

    I suspect it's a bit of both. It's not just the UK,  Western Europe all seem to miss out. We must be in a cycle of milder Winters, as pre 87 cold spells in Winter were more common. I would love to know what the polar vortex did in years gone by, because to me, having it set up shop over Greenland is a sure fire why to scupper cold spells.

    Frustratingly since the year after I was born exception of 1991 and 2010 I don't remember knee deep snow down South sometimes I wish I lived 20years- l earlier I can't remember the 87 winter- though back then was easy to get a property, better winters, pre social media& people staying indoors and all the P.C days, the only thing id miss- this forum, 

     

    Fingers crossed for better times ahead and the likes of Glosea forecast are undone by a good SSW

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    10 hours ago, LRD said:

    I agree with much of that but not the bit I've bolded. I'm well aware of many of my childhood winters that were a bit 'meh' (but still would have had at least a week of snow even in the more boring winters - 1982-83 for example had some snow in Feb in an otherwise unspectacular winter). But I have menmories of 81-82 and the numbers and reports back me up. 84-85, 85-86 and 86-87 were all very good too as was 90-91 and 95-96 and Dec 96. So I'm not looking at this with nostalgic eyes. It's just fact.

    It's like summers - I remember the bad ones as well as the good ones

    The bit you bolded is a known phenomenon. People do look back on their childhood with a bias. The reason is that cold snowy winters mean you are out sledging, having snowball fights, and having a more memorable time. Hot sunny summers mean you are playing on the beach or playing football outside. In other words, having a more memorable day. Slate grey days with the rain pouring down for hours whilst you sit indoors reading a book are not likely to stick in the mind decades later, despite that characterising much of the UK weather in the GMT portion of the year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    10 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

    However, there is no chance in the next decade that seasonal forecasting will be able to definitively tell you the weather on a particular day. Hell, the ECM can’t get day 9 right most of the time and how often is the 144 UKMO wrong? Seasonal forecasting is powerful in Winter and I imagine very useful for planners, government departments and gas distribution managers but they can’t and won’t be putting the remit of this thread out of business any time soon pal. 

    I’ve read actually we have nearly gone as far as science can take us with accurate forecasting, I think the atmosphere is too large and complex to truly understand, even huge computer models don’t reflect its power and fluidity. I think there’s room for progress in stratospheric forecasting I’ve certainly noticed big strides there. I’ve been watching this site for over 10 years now and have I noticed a significant improvement in models, ermmm, sometimes I wonder if we’re going backwards this probably isn’t right. The seasonal models do seem to be improving in recent years but they’re far from perfect busts are common. What we have at our disposal day to day is far from perfect but you have to make the best out of it. I’m not sure why some have so much faith in them including ens a majority is often held on shaky foundations, even including the best of the best you discover eventually nothing is infallible. Probably quite a few of will remember when Ian Fergusson posted in here met from BBC west, and sometimes he would pass on news from behind scenes and we’d get excited but quite often nothing came out of it. If you think the Met Office/BBC know a lot more than we do you’re mistaken you read them 6-30d day forecasts and often they change like the wind. We really have access to more than enough to have a fair playing field with them. What you see post on here maybe not from all posters is a fair reflection of the state of play which the professionals also see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    13 minutes ago, al78 said:

    The bit you bolded is a known phenomenon. People do look back on their childhood with a bias. The reason is that cold snowy winters mean you are out sledging, having snowball fights, and having a more memorable time. Hot sunny summers mean you are playing on the beach or playing football outside. In other words, having a more memorable day. Slate grey days with the rain pouring down for hours whilst you sit indoors reading a book are not likely to stick in the mind decades later, despite that characterising much of the UK weather in the GMT portion of the year.

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    Good grief I know what rose-tinted specs means and the concept. My dispute is you seem to be accusing me of it in an attempt by you to play amateur pyschologist. Sorry mate you can't tell me my own mind. The winters from years gone by were colder than they are now. That's a fact as demonstrated by the graph you used earlier. Nothing to do with rosy specs

    I've also mentioned on this very thread that I remember the winter of 1988-89 only too well (from my childhood) and that I also recall some dreadful summers when I was a kid and that summers are far more relaible now (where I live). Got to say it's a bit of a cheek for you to suggest you know what I'm thinking more than I do! Pretty presumptuous and patronising to be honest

    If you knew me you'd know that I'm very anti-nostalgia. And certainly a particular type of nostalgia where people think that EVERYTHING was better in the past than it is now... when it certainly was not. Some things were better, some things were worse. Simple really

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    45 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Help what?

    Just stating a fact in the banter thread.. it happens every year!

    Probably because it’s a real issue. Doesn’t take a brainbox to realise synoptics have to be that bit better later in the season to deliver what’s possible with less earlier in the season... 🤦🏻‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Probably because it’s a real issue. Doesn’t take a brainbox to realise synoptics have to be that bit better later in the season to deliver what’s possible with less earlier in the season... 🤦🏻‍♂️

    Absolutely. However, I'd happily have another Feb 28th/March 1st 2018.. snow like that is welcome at any point in time.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    October Fog Index says no, save you all a load of time and trouble and expectations. Come back November 2021 everybody.😘

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Steve's waved the white flag...can't blame him really if there is more important things to do. I've stopped recording daily winter records this winter for the first time since 1983/84 (though I didn't record 2008/09 due to illness), purely down to boredom with so little variation from Dec to Feb - it 's been pretty poor since 2013 other than the SSW of Feb 2018 and continues to be.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

    I honestly can’t believe what I’m reading in here, yes ok it looks like some of the background signals have led us up the path again but they ent the be it and end all, there’s a lot more that goes on with the weather and it will continue to surprise us when it feels like not when the background decides. People giving up on winter on the 11th December when in reality it has hardly ever begun at this early stage. All it takes is for the low pressure to move a few hundred miles and we will be in the colder Northwesterly and then wintry weather will happen. Keep the faith people plenty of time yet

    I totally agree 👍 

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    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and Thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl

    It's going to be all right. Remember Winter 1947 didn't get going until late January 😬 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    26 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    October Fog Index says no, save you all a load of time and trouble and expectations. Come back November 2021 everybody.😘

    Problem is many on here are addicted to the snow chase and particularly looking at that GFS (Garbage Fantasy Service) 4 times a day which is about as close as we come to seeing decent synoptics for cold i.e. at 384z and it doesn't matter how bad the teleconnections are, fine if you want to be disappointed more than 9 times out of 10...things are only going to get even worse. In another 10 years it will be a frost chase. 🙂

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Godstone Surrey
  • Location: Godstone Surrey

    Oh Dear ! The model thread has really imploded There is a collective throwing in of the towel almost to a man and woman ...the scandi high yet again smashed up by the Atlantic has led to mass hysteria

    personally I like to enjoy all types of weather and model watching but the coldaphiles have ruined the thread  

    Anyway I shall enjoy the rain and mild  sw winds ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    The cold fanatics fretting over some mild and wet weather coming, just remember November 2009 was a very wet and mild month with floods. I don't think i need to explain what happened next. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    29 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Absolutely. However, I'd happily have another Feb 28th/March 1st 2018.. snow like that is welcome at any point in time.

    59 years on this planet and have lived in Bristol and/or S Glos all my life. Early March 2018 (less than 3 years ago) was the most snowy, cold period (minus 2c at 2 oclock in the afternoon on the snowiest day) in March i've ever experienced for these parts; it was truly exceptional, and so, yes, it can happen even in these so-called snowless times. Since 1961, nothing in March has beaten it for my locality, in terms of snow and cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    37 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Absolutely. However, I'd happily have another Feb 28th/March 1st 2018.. snow like that is welcome at any point in time.

    So would I, preferably a month earlier. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, cool in summer
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
    7 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    The cold fanatics fretting over some mild and wet weather coming, just remember November 2009 was a very wet and mild month with floods. I don't think i need to explain what happened next. 

    It's mid December...

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Winter 2020-21 The End

    Curtain pulled.😅

    I would just like to place on record that I called 'Winter is Over' before Steve.

    Thank you. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    My annual reminder for NW peeps:

    The climate of the British Isles can be classified as a Temperate Maritime Climate.
    Temperate maritime climates are characterised by the absense of extreme climatic conditions. This generally refers to mild winter temperatures and warm summers. Rainfall is freqent but not extreme and the climate generally is free from hazardous atmospheric systems. The climatic conditions in the British Isles are largely related to the influence of the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic Ocean acts as heat reservoir, storing warm water through the winter. 

    The Atlantic is our overriding weather influence.

    Background signals, etc, etc mean v little when these islands are on the edge of the Atlantic and with a warming gulf stream running close by.

    The continent of mainland Europe only influences our weather on occasions, whether that be in Winter or Summer.....reality is we are nearly always 'on the edge', but more often than not never quite get 'there'.

    Edited by Bristle boy
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    7 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Winter 2020-21 The End

    Curtain pulled.😅

    ...AND ON THE 11TH DEC👏

    but i see your sarcasm😏

    there is much to play for looking at the day ten gefs ens>

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    ...AND ON THE 11TH DEC👏

    but i see your sarcasm😏

    there is much to play for looking at the day ten gefs ens>

    Agree 100% I'm all in for festive Northerly still quite possible my post above is take it with a pinch of salt post, went to the pub this evening for the first time in months come back almost all big hitters folded like a deck of cards.😄

    Edited by booferking
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