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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, cool in summer
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands

    Another depressingly mild and soggy festive period lies ahead.  Oh well, to be honest I'm so accustomed to mild weather in winter nowadays my main thoughts are as long as the weather doesn't cause any damage or disruption, say with flooding or wind damage, then so be it.

     

    I think we just have to get used to mild, mostly snow-less winters now.

    Edited by Simon M
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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    I swear, reading through many of the comments, a lot of people believe we live within the arctic circle. I remember many of the winters of the late 70's and 80's and believe me not a lot has changed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    5 hours ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Well, what a shock hey. 

    Potential filled patterns that don't advance forward from day 10 and then require 1 million things to go in our direction and not 1 thing against, they don't work out. 4 weeks of winter weather chasing already wasted on a phantom December, even by our standards that's a decent sized carrot.

    Like a giant balloon bursting in here, the realisation has set home that all of these background signals have been over-ridden or not worked out in our favour, for whatever reason. Other than location, is there a specific science that ensures the weather returns to the climatological norm in this country even in the face of some positive background features (Although I say that, the background and MJO etc, quite frequently flatter to deceive and rarely effect our weather positively). 

    Whatever happens, time is very much running out on anything even remotely festive. ENS, OPS and all models are trending into an Atlantic driven, very wet, very soggy, windy and potentially very mild spell. Just in time for Santa. Fantastic. I can't be the only person really struggling with the entire UK climate at the moment? It's genuinely curbing my enthusiasm towards meteorology. Such a boring, mundane, slow, long and miserable climate we live in these days and that includes these now abysmal, hot and sticky summers that start in April and end in October. 

    Desperately hoped the likes of @CreweCold would be correct this year, there is nothing better than a cold Christmas. However for now December 2020 will go down as the month that followed 2020 as a whole; Mild, boring, mundane, miserable, long. 

    Would be very interested in an update from those confident on a cold spell a few days ago. No updates/messages since.

    Don't believe the hype and FI winter wonderland charts, then you won't be disappointed.👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    Don't believe the hype and FI winter wonderland charts, then you won't be disappointed.👌

    And don't deify the hypers!👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Very frustrating this weather game! In all my years following the old  BBC thread and since 2005 here, as well as others the only difference I have found between the 'big hitters' and the rest of us is the they are better at pastcasting...i.e. putting science into what went wrong! This isnt a dig, but if gfs, ecm, ukmo get it wrong even the 'big hitters' here have no chance....unless they forecast wet and windy 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Arctic High not happening now?

    The ukmo had it within reach,a few days ago ,but of course it hasnt verified,but the milder weather has verified on the models.

    Typical of uk Winters now,and most of Europe just as ridicously mild.

    The lack of Winds from the N and E in the winter time is an utter joke,now being going on for decades,nothing but endless winds from a mild direction.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    And don't deify the hypers!👍

    They also have names for their gods like, "big hitters" 🤣

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

    Another year that confirms that it doesn't matter what background signals we have anymore. In the end the weather remains the same. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    big hitter or not, I will always 'forecast' wet and windy between Dec and Mar, nearly always right?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    big hitter or not, I will always 'forecast' wet and windy between Dec and Mar, nearly always right?

    Meanwhile, some of the 'Big Guns' haven't posted since yesterday... But, based on the models' collective brilliance, past Day 6, I'm sure they'll be back soon enough...?:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I don’t consider myself as a ‘big hitter’. I consider myself as someone who looks at all the models and background signals, and if I see a potential for a possible cold outbreak then I will stick my head above the parapet and say it. That does not mean that any cold spell will occur, more so that the potential is high and the real possibility is there. I haven’t seen any possibilities in the last few winters, but the way things were shaping up was very promising. It is not quite as promising but I am experienced and wise enough to suggest that we shouldn’t be thinking that a full return to proper zonal is set in stone.

    Would posters here prefer that those who can see the potential and recognise the possibilities not to say so, or rather post the potential whilst recognising that it may not come to fruition? After all, the potential was certainly there and in my opinion hasn’t diminished fully despite what the models are showing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Meanwhile, some of the 'Big Guns' haven't posted since yesterday... But, based on the models' collective brilliance, past Day 6, I'm sure they'll be back soon enough...?:santa-emoji:

    Lol. Here’s an idea Pete, study every aspect of teleconnective forecasting for 20 years, read hundreds of journal papers relating to such and make your own call?  Failing that, at least appreciate those who have!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    19 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Lol. Here’s an idea Pete, study every aspect of teleconnective forecasting for 20 years, read hundreds of journal papers relating to such and make your own call?  Failing that, at least appreciate those who have!

    Which is exactly what I have been doing...Agree to disagree?👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    I think it's a bit harsh to have a pop at those who stick their heads above the parapet and give forecasts and/or possible routes to cold - based on knowledge I can only dream of understanding. Just because it hasn't worked out it's not their fault. Blame the warming climate for that!

    It's a bit like that Simpsons episode where the residents of Springfield went to burn down their Observatory just because they were threatened with a meteor strike! 🤣

    image.png.3c244d3f3020149266fa2f27b9ad35de.png

    I appreciate the efforts that some make to understand the science and help idiots like me understand it. And to improve long-range forecasting accuracy. Just because long range forecasts often go wrong, doesn't mean we shouldn't continue to improve it

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    It's quite apparent that westerly Atlantic driven patterns have always been the norm for the uk in Winter and the current outlook is now evolving towards this.The problem now is cold setups with northern blocking seem less and less frequent than ever now which for younger coldies is so disappointing.

    Being an old git,now and then i think back to Winters of my youth during the 1950's and 60's.

    Apart from the great 62/3 season there were many other Winters with real cold spells and snow lying for several days with sub-zero daytime max's.

    Easterlies were more common back then and northerlies with the extra sea ice had more bite.The most recent pattern like those i remember was December 2010.

    From the enthusiasts pov it such a shame we see little of that kind now.

    It would have been meltdown on these threads if we had the internet then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    16 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    It's quite apparent that westerly Atlantic driven patterns have always been the norm for the uk in Winter and the current outlook is now evolving towards this.The problem now is cold setups with northern blocking seem less and less frequent than ever now which for younger coldies is so disappointing.

    Being an old git,now and then i think back to Winters of my youth during the 1950's and 60's.

    Apart from the great 62/3 season there were many other Winters with real cold spells and snow lying for several days with sub-zero daytime max's.

    Easterlies were more common back then and northerlies with the extra sea ice had more bite.The most recent pattern like those i remember was December 2010.

    From the enthusiasts pov it such a shame we see little of that kind now.

    It would have been meltdown on these threads if we had the internet then.

    The westerly has always been the favourite in most UK seasons, of course, but, for me, it's different now in winter. Westerlies are SO much more dominant now than even as recently as 30 years ago. Yes, westerlies are the standard winter setting but, even in the least dramatic winters, we always used to have a break in those westerlies and there was much more variability in weather type - whether the breaks lasted a week or a few weeks or a month or more. Whether it was a snowy break or even just a foggy, frosty break. The westerlies just seemed to be switched off at times during most winters. But now they're just constantly switched on. There have been blips (2009-2013) and the mid-90s, as I've said before, but the overall trend is the increasing dominance of those west or south-west winds

    Double-digit maxima (and, indeed, minima) seem to occur much more often now, too, between Dec and Feb. That might just be the mind playing tricks but I'm not sure it is

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Don't worry, not long until we get a post from someone complaining that the increased sun strength and longer days will hamper a cold / snowy spell. ⛷️

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Don't worry, not long until we get a post from someone complaining that the increased sun strength and longer days will hamper a cold / snowy spell. ⛷️

    The way things are going those posts might start appearing late January instead of (what is now) mid-Feb in a few years time!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, cool in summer
  • Location: Near Walsall, West Midlands
    13 minutes ago, LRD said:

    The westerly has always been the favourite in most UK seasons, of course, but, for me, it's different now in winter. Westerlies are SO much more dominant now than even as recently as 30 years ago. Yes, westerlies are the standard winter setting but, even in the least dramatic winters, we always used to have a break in those westerlies and there was much more variability in weather type - whether the breaks lasted a week or a few weeks or a month or more. Whether it was a snowy break or even just a foggy, frosty break. The westerlies just seemed to be switched off at times during most winters. But now they're just constantly switched on. There have been blips (2009-2013) and the mid-90s, as I've said before, but the overall trend is the increasing dominance of those west or south-west winds

    Double-digit maxima (and, indeed, minima) seem to occur much more often now, too, between Dec and Feb. That might just be the mind playing tricks but I'm not sure it is

    To make things worse the sea surface temps are generally higher too, so those increasingly prevalent westerlies are going to be just that bit milder as well.

    Edited by Simon M
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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
    46 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    It's quite apparent that westerly Atlantic driven patterns have always been the norm for the uk in Winter and the current outlook is now evolving towards this.The problem now is cold setups with northern blocking seem less and less frequent than ever now which for younger coldies is so disappointing.

    Being an old git,now and then i think back to Winters of my youth during the 1950's and 60's.

    Apart from the great 62/3 season there were many other Winters with real cold spells and snow lying for several days with sub-zero daytime max's.

    Easterlies were more common back then and northerlies with the extra sea ice had more bite.The most recent pattern like those i remember was December 2010.

    From the enthusiasts pov it such a shame we see little of that kind now.

    It would have been meltdown on these threads if we had the internet then.

    This is all very true but I came to the realisation about 5 years ago that global warming and the fact it seems that every year is warmer than the next must have an adverse effect on our winters however much you may not want to admit it ... or it’s not proven somehow 

    however when you look at the damage it’s doing to places like Australia and the southern US not having a few days snowfall really isn’t that much at the end of the day is it ... it’s wanting an outcome that’s relatively harmless I know and it’s a nice wee little hobby for people but it’s chasing a rainbow these days. That said we still do get a few days snowfall up here most years so maybe we are spoilt 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    See it every year 'background signals look good' this looks good hemispherically' lack of PV etc, but we always get the Atlantic somehow winning out last 22 years or so, especially in Feb

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Oh dear, I have been away for a few days after things were looking fairly positive.  I come back tonight to all doom and gloom!

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate 110m
  • Location: Reigate 110m
    5 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    I agree with Mike Poole, it has become so frustrating with the thrill of seeing the knowledgeable posters coming out of the woodwork these last few weeks as things looked so encouraging for a decent chance of a cold spell. And in a matter of 48 hours it’s near enough vanished a so often the case the last decade. So many people on here love the spirit of the forum when the pot of gold lands and it’s such a shame it seems near enough impossible these years. Global warming? Bad luck? Surely it’s option B if other parts of the globe can still experience harsh winters? 

    This is a lovely post.

    I go right back to the old BBC Snowatch days, quite early in the days of the Internet and forums, it was all quite exciting even with the loons posting about Grebes and cut off dates.

    As far as I can see, and I'm miles from expertise, snow and ice is a fading thing and that's, to me, awful.  I bought a lovely book a couple of years back by Christopher Nicholson,  a man who spends a lot of his time climbing high in the Scottish mountains looking for and mapping snow that just about hangs on in the heart of July and August.  It's a great read but more importantly is a beautiful evocation of an obsession.

    I can't recommend it enough.

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

    Totally confused as to why so many come out of the woodwork every year only to take delight in peeing on others bonfires. Seems a very sad past time to me, ought to take up something more constructive...

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    7 minutes ago, abruzzi spartan said:

     

    I bought a lovely book a couple of years back by Christopher Nicholson,  a man who spends a lot of his time climbing high in the Scottish mountains looking for and mapping snow that just about hangs on in the heart of July and August.  It's a great read but more importantly is a beautiful evocation of an obsession.

    I can't recommend it enough.

    I used to troll through the Ceefax snow pages...500-505?, just to find out how the Scottish ski resorts were doing.

    He's also called chionomac, but on another forum, winterhighland, which unfortunately last year suffered a massive DOS attack and the chaps who run it are basically too old to bother fighting and resurrecting......if they have, I cant find them. The site used to put cameras in to view the pistes, but at Cairngorm they were eventually taken offline as the Winterhighland site was deemed to be too critical of the management(completely correct as now there is no monorail, White Lady or Ciste chairs left)

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    Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
    52 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Don't worry, not long until we get a post from someone complaining that the increased sun strength and longer days will hamper a cold / snowy spell. ⛷️

    I Don't think posts like this help. Especially from a MOD. It just stirs the pot which breeds negativity on the forum, something you should surely be trying to steer clear of.

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