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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    So boys and girls get your coats, winter is over 😅!! 

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    I know a lot of people in here can remember the 1980s and how most Winters that decade up till 1988 were either cold and snowy or at least had one cold and snowy spell within them. But what about the 1970s. Yes the decade started cold and ended cold but the bulk of the decade was pretty bad from a cold and snow lovers point of view from what I can tell. It almost seems as though it wasn't too dissimilar to the 2000s decade in that regard.

    Going back further it seems that the the first few decades of the 20th century weren't that great either, with exceptions such as 1916/17 and 1928/29 been few and far between. In fact it seems the Winters of yesteryear as some might refer to them weren't much of a thing during the last century until the outbreak of the Second World War. Even then it wasn't exactly annual, but they did undeniably become more frequent over the next 4 or 5 decades than they were previously or have been since (2008 to 2013 might be considered a short blip back into the patterns of the mid to late 20th century for our isles). 

    Not to mention that most colder and more snowy Winters on these isles don't often come to fruition until after the turn of the New Year or close to it, I see no reason to be writing off this Winter never mind the whole of the 2020s just yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    9 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    That string of 80s Winters (1981-1987) were not typical for the 20th century, but very much on the cold side. If you grew up then then maybe your expectations are a tad too high. I was a teenager during the 2009-2013 run and I came to expect frequent snowfalls and prolonged cold spells every year. Winter 2013/14 was a real shock to the system; the idea of no lying snow at any point during the Winter was unfathomable!

    In Bedfordshire, I've seen 1 snow day since March 2018 - a pitiful one-day effort in late Jan 2019. I don't think expecting a bit better than that is having high expectations. And, come on, the snow we had earlier this month was pretty thin gruel for most of us. I didn't even see any

    Up to and including WW1 and the 40's, 50's and 60's were pretty cold. I realise the 20's, 30's and 70's were warmer. 40's, 50's and 60's colder than the 80s I'd suggest even though I wasn't around those days. As I say even in the more humdrum winters we would get some period of snow even if it was just a week long spell with the other 11 weeks being uneventful. Nowadays, most winters, nothing. As I say, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Gathering those stats that I mentioned would reveal all. And I'd bet it'd reveal that the 80s weren't THAT unusual in terms of lying and falling snow and no of ice days in the context of the rest of the century. Above average for snow, yes, but not that special in the context of the entire century. But certainly special in the context of THIS century

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
    9 minutes ago, fromey said:

    So boys and girls get your coats, winter is over 😅!! 

    Winter is done! Over. I cannot keep up.  Will it back on again next week?  

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    Well, what a shock hey. 

    Potential filled patterns that don't advance forward from day 10 and then require 1 million things to go in our direction and not 1 thing against, they don't work out. 4 weeks of winter weather chasing already wasted on a phantom December, even by our standards that's a decent sized carrot.

    Like a giant balloon bursting in here, the realisation has set home that all of these background signals have been over-ridden or not worked out in our favour, for whatever reason. Other than location, is there a specific science that ensures the weather returns to the climatological norm in this country even in the face of some positive background features (Although I say that, the background and MJO etc, quite frequently flatter to deceive and rarely effect our weather positively). 

    Whatever happens, time is very much running out on anything even remotely festive. ENS, OPS and all models are trending into an Atlantic driven, very wet, very soggy, windy and potentially very mild spell. Just in time for Santa. Fantastic. I can't be the only person really struggling with the entire UK climate at the moment? It's genuinely curbing my enthusiasm towards meteorology. Such a boring, mundane, slow, long and miserable climate we live in these days and that includes these now abysmal, hot and sticky summers that start in April and end in October. 

    Desperately hoped the likes of @CreweCold would be correct this year, there is nothing better than a cold Christmas. However for now December 2020 will go down as the month that followed 2020 as a whole; Mild, boring, mundane, miserable, long. 

    Would be very interested in an update from those confident on a cold spell a few days ago. No updates/messages since.

    Edited by PolarWarsaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 minute ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    I know a lot of people in here can remember the 1980s and how most Winters that decade up till 1988 were either cold and snowy or at least had one cold and snowy spell within them. But what about the 1970s. Yes the decade started cold and ended cold but the bulk of the decade was pretty bad from a cold and snow lovers point of view from what I can tell. It almost seems as though it wasn't too dissimilar to the 2000s decade in that regard.

    Going back further it seems that the the first few decades of the 20th century weren't that great either, with exceptions such as 1916/17 and 1928/29 been few and far between. In fact it seems the Winters of yesteryear as some might refer to them weren't much of a thing during the last century until the outbreak of the Second World War. Even then it wasn't exactly annual, but they did undeniably become more frequent over the next 4 or 5 decades than they were previously or have been since (2008 to 2013 might be considered a short blip back into the patterns of the mid to late 20th century for our isles). 

    Not to mention that most colder and more snowy Winters on these isles don't often come to fruition until after the turn of the New Year or close to it, I see no reason to be writing off this Winter never mind the whole of the 2020s just yet.

    So, let's dig out the stats then. Measuring these three things at one lowland part of the England:

    Dec - Feb:

    Snow lying days

    Snow falling days

    Ice days

    This would give us the answer and whether or not I'm being a nostalgic t*at or there is truth that winters have become far warmer over the last 30 years - with some exceptions - and that there has been a real warming trend (in summer as well as winter. I remember some rotten summers in my childhood. Where I live summers are far more reliable now than they were when I was a kid)

    The scientists at the Met Office are predicting no snow in parts of the UK by the 2040s. People on here can deny it or doubt it all they like but they are the people paid and qualified to look at this sort of stuff. So some may scoff and dismiss but I won't be

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    Just now, Barometer Cat said:

    Winter is done! Over. I cannot keep up.  Will it back on again next week?  

    Who knows, so many conflicting signals, model runs etc, like you say it’s hard to keep up! I ignore the gfs past 144hrs, and only tend to glance at the ECM and ukmet looking for trends, once they become established then I might take a bit more interest, I don’t get sucked into day 10+ charts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    45 minutes ago, al78 said:

    I personally think that is overstating it, Polar and Arctic air masses will still exist in winter in the 2040's, those regions are still going to be cold enough. It is just the conditions to advect the cold across to the UK along with moisture and uplift required for snow rather than sleet and rain are going to need to be even more optimal than now, so the frequency of major snowfalls will decrease.

    I think you're saying exactly what me and the Met Office are saying but in a different way. I don't think we're disagreeing at all. The bit you've said that I've bolded essentially is saying that snow is less and less likely cos the conditions have to be almost perfect

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    1 minute ago, LRD said:

    In Bedfordshire, I've seen 1 snow day since March 2018 - a pitiful one-day effort in late Jan 2019. I don't think expecting a bit better than that is having high expectations. And, come on, the snow we had earlier this month was pretty thin gruel for most of us. I didn't even see any

    Up to and including WW1 and the 40's, 50's and 60's were pretty cold. I realise the 20's, 30's and 70's were warmer. 40's, 50's and 60's colder than the 80s I'd suggest even though I wasn't around those days. As I say even in the more humdrum winters we would get some period of snow even if it was just a week long spell with the other 11 weeks being uneventful. Nowadays, most winters, nothing. As I say, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Gathering those stats that I mentioned would reveal all. And I'd bet it'd reveal that the 80s weren't THAT unusual in terms of lying and falling snow and no of ice days in the context of the rest of the century. Above average for snow, yes, but not that special in the context of the entire century. But certainly special in the context of THIS century

    Well by CET standards the 80s were exceptional. Getting sub-1C months in three consecutive Winters as happened in January 1985 (0.8C), February 1986 (-1.1C), and January 1987 (0.8C) is very rare indeed; in fact, the only other occurrence of that in the 20th century was January 1940 (-1.4C), January 1941 (0.5C), and January and February 1942 (0.9C and 0.1C). The word exceptional is thrown around a lot, perhaps more often than it should be, but when it comes to prolonged Winter cold, in the true sense of the word, the 80s were exceptional.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    15 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

    Help me out here,  I am not seeing spring like temperatures coming up?    Not in models or forecasts, where are these showing?   All I can see is this same pattern more or less repeating in the near term. Not really interested past +144 at the moment. 

    Almost 12c here in Kent today!

    And, likely to be higher with some sunshine during the next few days. 

    In recent years, temperatures during early spring are often lower than that.

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    27 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    That string of 80s Winters (1981-1987) were not typical for the 20th century, but very much on the cold side. If you grew up then then maybe your expectations are a tad too high. I was a teenager during the 2009-2013 run and I came to expect frequent snowfalls and prolonged cold spells every year. Winter 2013/14 was a real shock to the system; the idea of no lying snow at any point during the Winter was unfathomable!

    I was born in 1978 and I remember snowy periods when I was in primary school, making slides and rolling big snowballs. Your past memories are going to be a product of where you were brought up. I was born and raised in Salford which tends to be one of the last places to get snow if there is a cold snap, and when it does get snow it is the 1-2 inches that thaws within a day (like lowland southern England). It takes a proper severe winter spell to get substantial snow around lowland Gtr Manchester, something like Dec 1995 or Dec/Jan 2010. My past weather memories is biased toward the 1990's decade which was characterised by positive NAO winters, mild, wet, stormy, and a couple of superb summers in 1995 and 1996 (the former a bit too good).

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    5 minutes ago, LRD said:

    I think you're saying exactly what me and the Met Office are saying but in a different way. I don't think we're disagreeing at all. The bit you've said that I've bolded essentially is saying that snow is less and less likely cos the conditions have to be almost perfect

    Yes we agree, what I am clarifying is I don't think snowy periods in UK winters will disappear entirely, just that the return period will increase, similarly the return period for extreme summer heat will decrease.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Nearly 10C and can hear birds singing that I associate with the dawn of spring - akin to early March for these parts at the moment.

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    27 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    There's nothing natural about this global warming. Or do you think you know better than thousands of scientists whose theories are based on facts, not on opinions?

    You do know global warming makes millions of dollar industry and taxes people over in America? Yes I’m a climate denier and you people are crying and throwing your dummy out the pram because we have no snow in December? Since when were Decembers filled with snow. It’s very rare! It’s mostly end of jan/feb the uk gets snow! If one say we get a bunch of winters filled with snow 3 month solid straight, you would still call it climate change. You’ve been brainwashed I’m afraid

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 minute ago, Relativistic said:

    Well by CET standards the 80s were exceptional. Getting sub-1C months in three consecutive Winters as happened in January 1985 (0.8C), February 1986 (-1.1C), and January 1987 (0.8C) is very rare indeed; in fact, the only other occurrence of that in the 20th century was January 1940 (-1.4C), January 1941 (0.5C), and January and February 1942 (0.9C and 0.1C). The word exceptional is thrown around a lot, perhaps more often than it should be, but when it comes to prolonged Winter cold, in the true sense of the word, the 80s were exceptional.

    Let's look at the CETs for Dec, Jan and Feb then. Where can we find that data? That'd tell us how much Dec, Jan and Feb have warmed in the UK over the last 30 years and where the 80s truly sit in the context of a century's worth of data. But snow falling, snow lying and ice days would help that picture too

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    You do know global warming makes millions of dollar industry and taxes people over in America? Yes I’m a climate denier and you people are crying and throwing your dummy out the pram because we have no snow in December? Since when were Decembers filled with snow. It’s very rare! It’s mostly end of jan/feb the uk gets snow! If one say we get a bunch of winters filled with snow 3 month solid straight, you would still call it climate change. You’ve been brainwashed I’m afraid

    Aye... there's one born every minute!🦄😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    Just now, LRD said:

    Let's look at the CETs for Dec, Jan and Feb then. Where can we find that data? That'd tell us how much Dec, Jan and Feb have warmed in the UK over the last 30 years and where the 80s truly sit in the context of a century's worth of data. But snow falling, snow lying and ice days would help that picture too

    I'm not debating that. My original point was that basing expectations on an exceptional series of childhood Winters, which you disputed as being not exceptional temperature-wise, is a little unrealistic; I then provided evidence against your dispute.

    You can easily find the data you're looking for here:
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

    This if for central England only; if you want nationwide data you'll have to look elsewhere. No doubt you'll see that the Winter months have warmed (again, not what I refuted). There's even a thread for this topic here:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
    12 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    You do know global warming makes millions of dollar industry and taxes people over in America? Yes I’m a climate denier

    So what? That has nothing to do with the fact that Global Warming is real and scientifically proven. People make millions selling cars. Does that mean that they are not real?

     

    Climate denier! LOL 

    Maybe you are right and I am too gullible , believe it or not I even believe we have been on the moon! How silly of me! 

    😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge

    Gosh, didn't think these types existed anymore. Pity the fool.

    With the northern hemisphere being as blocky as it is you would think the UK would get a snowy period, but no chance. If I were a betting man I would bet another snow flake free winter for most. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
    23 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Almost 12c here in Kent today!

    And, likely to be higher with some sunshine during the next few days. 

    In recent years, temperatures during early spring are often lower than that.

    wow 12c! Big differences from last week.  It's 8c here in East mids and the most mild it has been for days.  The temps are going to vary wildly nationally so definitely does depend on location

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham

    Here are timeseries of the CET for December January and February 1900-2020 (2019 for December). There have been small upward trends in all winter months, but note the interannual variability is an order of magnitude larger, so it would be premature to claim the UK can't get severe cold periods in winter any more or in the future.

     

     

    winterCET.png

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    1 minute ago, al78 said:

    Here are timeseries of the CET for December January and February 1900-2020 (2019 for December). There have been small upward trends in all winter months, but note the interannual variability is an order of magnitude larger, so it would be premature to claim the UK can't get severe cold periods in winter any more or in the future.

     

     

    winterCET.png

    Thank you for proving my point 

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    2 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    So what? That has nothing to do with the fact that Global Warming is real and scientifically proven. People make millions selling cars. Does that mean that they are not real?

     

    Climate denier! LOL 

    Maybe you are right and I am too gullible , believe it or not I even believe we have been on the moon! How silly of me! 

    😀

    It is laughable the implication that global warming must be made up because someone somewhere makes money because of it, whilst ignoring the billions made from consumption of fossil fuels and spreading lies and disinformation.

    In any case, you can;t convince someone of the truth of something, when there salary or identity demands it is false.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    1 minute ago, al78 said:

    Here are timeseries of the CET for December January and February 1900-2020 (2019 for December). There have been small upward trends in all winter months, but note the interannual variability is an order of magnitude larger, so it would be premature to claim the UK can't get severe cold periods in winter any more or in the future.

     

     

    winterCET.png

    Nice chart. Illustrates the warming climate nicely and the less cold winters.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    11 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    So what? That has nothing to do with the fact that Global Warming is real and scientifically proven. People make millions selling cars. Does that mean that they are not real?

     

    Climate denier! LOL 

    Maybe you are right and I am too gullible , believe it or not I even believe we have been on the moon! How silly of me! 

    😀

    The ignore function might be your friend here!!

    😉

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