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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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42 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yeah I'd really agreed that the climate has already changed. Remember there was no significant cold spell in lowland SE England from 1991 until 2009 - 18 year! From my point of view, under the parameters of the new climate, the 2010s absolutely spoilt us. The only month in this period I consider truly and unusually mild is obviously December 2015 - all other mild months fit into the new climatology well. 

The earth goes through natural cycles! 

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I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    This weather and the forecast is horrific for SAD sufferers especially after such a dull November aswell😢.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    12 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    You guys are so annoying! Climate change has nothing to do with it! We’ve rarely had white Decembers!!!! 

    Well, I don't know... but, back in the old days, we'd normally get something like 10 snow-days each year, give or take... But, having seen so very few (none, to be precise!) since March 2018, the chances of seeing one on December 25th, in any single year, must now be vanishingly small...?

    I know it's annoying... but, unless today's 06Z 'smells the coffee', it does look rather 2020 will not be 'The Year'!🤔

    Edited by General Cluster
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  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    27 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

    This weather and the forecast is horrific for SAD sufferers especially after such a dull November aswell😢.

    In my location I didn't think November was too bad, we did have some sunny days and it was drier than normal but it feels we're back in the rut of not seeing any sun and most days are grey and damp and now looks like becoming somewhat milder...winter's over! 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    50 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    I think wet and windy with classic warm sector mild back to average temps would sum it up.

    Totally. LET'S GET REAL PEOPLE 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    This has been a grim December so far, and I really don't hold out much hope for the rest of the month. I echo the thoughts above about being fed up of the mud!

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  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    9 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    Reason it doesn't look good at the moment  is that people put too much faith in what GFS is showing on the 2nd page of metiociel after 192 hours, which most of the time never verifies and is a complete waste of time.Doesnt matter if it is showing Day After Tomorrow type scenarios or weather hot enough to melt the ice caps🤣

    It's only useful upto about 5 days ahead. Ecm isn't a lot better after that timeframe either TBH. 

    Keepig  our expectations in check makes the breakthrough even more sensation and I do agree, it's better to keep it real lto avoid tee pain when it changes on the next run!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    4 minutes ago, LRD said:

    Apart from a couple of frames, the GFS 6z is just unrelentingly awful

    Topped of with this brown cherry on the turd cake

      

    Time for a rest from this model watching lark I think. Time for a break, time for a...

    image.thumb.png.e2cbfbfb689ad12bae653aca7f5c74b0.png

    image.png

    Valium 

     

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  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    I wouldn’t mind the mild so much if it could at least be sunnier! Honestly our weather just seems to get more boring year on year, more and more devoid of extremes.

    Id be much happier with a big frosty high over us for a few weeks to at least make any associated dullness seasonal. 

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  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    Just now, TSNWK said:

    Nah! Where's the fun in that.. 🙂

    Difficult when you're getting p****d on from the heavens constantly whilst trying to salvage Christmas 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Only extremes we seem to get are warmth related or deluges/dry spells...yawn!

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    3 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

    Valium 

     

    Washed down with a bottle of strickening!

    Nah, not really. I'm not that worried. It's only weather. Disappointing yes but that's par for the course down the last few years and most of the last few decades. But I call the models as I see them. I haven't got the expertise of some on here but I know dross when I see it and I'll call it as such. If there are positives I highlight them but there just aren't any that I can see at the moment

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  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

    at this rate the hunt for cold will just become the hunt for dry.   Or the hunt for 'a bit colder' or 'something different'

    🤮 In the future, Christmas scenes on cards will replace snow with Mud or festive puddles...

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  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    23 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Only extremes we seem to get are warmth related or deluges/dry spells...yawn!

    Even those are unusual in my neck of the woods. Other than thunderstorms are uncommon rainfall events, I don’t tend to register overly high seasonal temperatures or rainfall amounts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    59 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    In my location I didn't think November was too bad, we did have some sunny days and it was drier than normal but it feels we're back in the rut of not seeing any sun and most days are grey and damp and now looks like becoming somewhat milder...winter's over! 😉

    It has been pretty bad in Sussex. According to the Met Office monthly anomaly maps my area had no more than half the average sunshine in October and November combined, and December is turning into the third consecutive dull month. For five months of the year the UK climate is something to endure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    4 hours ago, LRD said:

    Vortex over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter

    Vortex not over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter

    Hugely impressive negative AO forecast - the charts are showing mild and wet for the UK

    I know the climate has changed and continues to warm but you'd think we'd still get some winters of note every so often

     

    We will, but there is no denying that a warming climate will make significant snow events less likely, and they were never very likely to begin with, despite the nostalgia bias claiming all winters in your grandmothers day were cold and snowy. The UK has always been marginal for lying snow in winter, because cold air masses are almost always near the freezing point when they arrive here, so you need several conditions to come together for widespread prolonged snowfall, which is low probability. It is the same with summer heat, there is a reason 35+C doesn't happen often. Having said that, by the laws of probability, very cold air masses will bring a decent snowfall to large parts of the UK, because the near continent will always be cold enough in an average winter, so strong cold advection from the continent combined with a Biscay low running into the cold air will bring heavy and disruptive snow to the southern counties. The thing is now, with a warmer climate than 50 years ago, what would have brought heavy snow back then might only bring cold rain and sleet now because we are always marginal for proper snow. There was a day in February 2010 when it rained all day and the temperature was 1-2C. I couldn't help thinking at the time that if it had been the 1960's, the south would have had nearly a foot of snow.

    Edited by al78
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    4 hours ago, LRD said:

    There were people mocking the Met Office for saying that snow will be a thing of the past by the 2040s if global warming is not slowed down. Calling it propaganda. Well, all you need to see is what's gone before and with the trajectory we are on - and have been since the last 80s - that is a very real possibility

    I personally think that is overstating it, Polar and Arctic air masses will still exist in winter in the 2040's, those regions are still going to be cold enough. It is just the conditions to advect the cold across to the UK along with moisture and uplift required for snow rather than sleet and rain are going to need to be even more optimal than now, so the frequency of major snowfalls will decrease.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    1 hour ago, Nick L said:

    This has been a grim December so far, and I really don't hold out much hope for the rest of the month. I echo the thoughts above about being fed up of the mud!

    There are puddles on the grass verges near me which have been there so long, they will be added to the next edition of the OS maps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    This forum is the same every year. Just 11 days into meteorological Winter and the moans and groans about how this season and all future ones are doomed to be 100% Atlantic-driven have started. I've already seen snow this year, and that's not just because I'm in Scotland; many places in the south-east of England have too. Granted, it wasn't a deep snowfall, but any snowfall before Christmas is a bonus (March will see more days of snow than December will, on average).

    Anyway, synoptically speaking the northern hemisphere looks far from normal at the moment. My feeling is that we'll see something noteworthy at some point this Winter; I just don't know whether it will be of the very-cold or very-mild variety.

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  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    6 minutes ago, al78 said:

    We will, but there is no denying that a warming climate will make significant snow events less likely, and they were never very likely to begin with, despite the nostalgia bias claiming all winters in your grandmothers day were cold and snowy. The UK has always been marginal for lying snow in winter, because cold air masses are almost always near the freezing point when they arrive here, so you need several conditions to come together for widespread prolonged snowfall, which is low probability. It is the same with summer heat, there is a reason 35+C doesn't happen often. Having said that, by the laws of probability, very cold air masses will bring a decent snowfall to large parts of the UK, because the near continent will always be cold enough in an average winter, so strong cold advection from the continent combined with a Biscay low running into the cold air will bring heavy and disruptive snow to the southern counties. The thing is now, with a warmer climate than 50 years ago, what would have brought heavy snow back then might only bring cold rain and sleet now because we are always marginal for proper snow. There was a day in February 2010 when it rained all day and the temperature was 1-2C. I couldn't help thinking at the time that if it had been the 1960's, the south would have had nearly a foot of snow.

    I agree with much of that but not the bit I've bolded. I'm well aware of many of my childhood winters that were a bit 'meh' (but still would have had at least a week of snow even in the more boring winters - 1982-83 for example had some snow in Feb in an otherwise unspectacular winter). But I have menmories of 81-82 and the numbers and reports back me up. 84-85, 85-86 and 86-87 were all very good too as was 90-91 and 95-96 and Dec 96. So I'm not looking at this with nostalgic eyes. It's just fact.

    It's like summers - I remember the bad ones as well as the good ones

    There would be 2 stats that I can't be bothered to investigate but that would be very interesting (and probably revealing) to see. 1) is no of snow falling and snow lying days that, say, Leicester (as a mid point in England) has had from 1900 to the present day as well as number of ice days. I'll be amazed if there wasn't a decline in all of those things. 2) What are the rainfall/precipitation stats for somewhere like Milan or Genoa in Northern Italy or other central European locations. I'd be expecting the amount of rainfall/precipitation between Dec and Feb from 1900 to the present to have seen a fall as the winter Euro High has become more and more prominent

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    4 hours ago, TSNWK said:

     

    I think what would be good to hear is some updates from a couple of the big hitters who were around start of this week when things at the time were looking more positive for coldies

    ( invisible wall for anyone?) – be great hearing if they still think we are in the game and if not what has changed as the week progressed to introduce what the models are currently suggesting.

    I would absolutely love to hear from then as well 

    I absolutely have to agree with you as when there's cold charts over 10 days away you don't stop hearing from them but where's charts like this they are silent the last two days 

    It's misleading to some users too 

    That invisible wall must of transformed into a steaming train across the ocean if anything

     

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  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    9 minutes ago, LRD said:

    I agree with much of that but not the bit I've bolded. I'm well aware of many of my childhood winters that were a bit 'meh' (but still would have had at least a week of snow even in the more boring winters - 1982-83 for example had some snow in Feb in an otherwise unspectacular winter). But I have menmories of 81-82 and the numbers and reports back me up. 84-85, 85-86 and 86-87 were all very good too as was 90-91 and 95-96 and Dec 96. So I'm not looking at this with nostalgic eyes. It's just fact.

    It's like summers - I remember the bad ones as well as the good ones

    There would be 2 stats that I can't be bothered to investigate but that would be very interesting (and probably revealing) to see. 1) is no of snow falling and snow lying days that, say, Leicester (as a mid point in England) has had from 1900 to the present day as well as number of ice days. I'll be amazed if there wasn't a decline in all of those things. 2) What are the rainfall/precipitation stats for somewhere like Milan or Genoa in Northern Italy or other central European locations. I'd be expecting the amount of rainfall/precipitation between Dec and Feb from 1900 to the present to have seen a fall as the winter Euro High has become more and more prominent

    That string of 80s Winters (1981-1987) were not typical for the 20th century, but very much on the cold side. If you grew up then then maybe your expectations are a tad too high. I was a teenager during the 2009-2013 run and I came to expect frequent snowfalls and prolonged cold spells every year. Winter 2013/14 was a real shock to the system; the idea of no lying snow at any point during the Winter was unfathomable!

    Edited by Relativistic
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  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
    2 hours ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    The earth goes through natural cycles! 

    There's nothing natural about this global warming. Or do you think you know better than thousands of scientists whose theories are based on facts, not on opinions?

    Edited by mathematician
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