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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    3 hours ago, Day 10 said:

    Sounds like a nice drink.

    I'm a few years underage, but as long as it's Cobra it's non alcaholic at least that's what they said to me.

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Usually when I give up hope of a decent Uk winter (most years obviously) I turn my attention to a ski trip. This year it’s going to be tough with Covid and Brexit. Current scenes like this in Italy are making it very frustrating ! 

    01FDC33F-A97B-4012-B792-B4C3DC8FDAED.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Control heading the same way on gfs 12z.ec without doubt be epic👌👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn

    As an avid lurker for the past 5 years I have to say nothing has changed. 
     

    Apart from 2018 the models have continued to lead us down the garden path. The same culprits swinging banners and victory at Day 10 to 15 day chart promises only to met by default Atlantic or static nowhere’s. 
     

    I admire all folk that are willing to chip in knowledge over on the MOD thread. But it’s always a Day 10 chart, that’s right it’s always a Day 10 chart. A Day 10 chart. 
     

    A very futile hobby is this, but the very reason it is a hobby for Netweather members, the chase/non result is the hobby! 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    3 years ago to the day 😍 was a few good falls December 2017. Bare this in mind when people say how awesome the current outputs are. It may look nice from a model watchers point of view but on the ground it’s very average looking so far and will stay that way for at least another 10 days, probably more  😤

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    A41AD1BF-5726-4BFC-81E0-C367FE031EDD.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

    3 years ago to the day 😍 was a few good falls December 2017. Bare this in mind when people say how awesome the current outputs are. It may look nice from a model watchers point of view but on the ground it’s very average looking so far and will stay that way for at least another 10 days, probably more  😤

    3AD33E69-CCF4-4FA2-84F4-2B2141A3C6FE.jpeg

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    My daughter's 5th birthday, she still mentions the snow we had then on her birthday 🙂

    20171210_124442.jpg

    Edited by ArHu3
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I’m all for looking for positives, but it’s frustrating when posters come out with positives that clearly aren’t there!

    A few days ago, some people were saying that a zonal setup was highly unlikely. Zonal is NEVER unlikely as it’s our default setup.

    Lookimg for positives on tonight’s runs is akin to polishing a dog turd!

     

     

     

    We have to keep our dreams and spirits up though mate... Its bad enough having to endure several days of the in laws this Xmas without having to view this dire output... Personally I think I need a tier 5 slapped on this house... That should keep em away 🤣 like you say things grim at the MO, and I'm not expecting tonights 46 to offer much joy, at least in the shorter term. But again just check out that Marco tweet regarding the vortex... Its weakening bit by bit and slowing by the day... This could throw us one big life line in the next few weeks... Namely a major split. The fact its being mentioned by the pros shows how possible this is. And let's face it, the NH profile will be all over the place if this occurs, and it takes a while for the models to come to grips with! 

    Let's make this place a very Happy place and enjoy our Xmas as much as we can... The search for cold begins shortly after, I've been saying this since 2010,but I'm bound to get it correct sooner or later. 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

    Winter and the current focus Christmas weather will not be decided by one or two runs. 144 suggested as FI, that seems sane 👍:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
    3 hours ago, Polaris said:

    But it’s always a Day 10 chart, that’s right it’s always a Day 10 chart. A Day 10 chart. 

    I'm totally with you on this. Every time is a 10 day chart, the goalpost gets moved and moved till is March and winter is over. 

     

     

    It's maybe time to give up and realize that chasing snow in the uk is like chasing dreams and find another hobby. it's just frustrating and I don't get any pleasure from it anymore. 

     

    One day I'll move to Canada and forget about this small island... 

    Edited by mathematician
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    35 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    A fair share of the output shows phase 6,7.

    20201210204123-49c4c92cebe379bb8ecd2d8ede55dd01ff9af341.png

    stuff like this deserves to be in the model thread. ECMWF stuff like this and presumably many others here is really why we watch the model thread

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    47 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    I'm totally with you on this. Every time is a 10 day chart, the goalpost gets moved and moved till is March and winter is over. 

     

     

    It's maybe time to give up and realize that chasing snow in the uk is like chasing dreams and find another hobby. it's just frustrating and I don't get any pleasure from it anymore. 

     

    One day I'll move to Canada and forget about this small island... 

    no point moving to Canada that will kill any love you have for snow in not time at all 😎

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
    49 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    I'm totally with you on this. Every time is a 10 day chart, the goalpost gets moved and moved till is March and winter is over. 

     

     

    It's maybe time to give up and realize that chasing snow in the uk is like chasing dreams and find another hobby. it's just frustrating and I don't get any pleasure from it anymore. 

     

    One day I'll move to Canada and forget about this small island... 

    the definition of insanity etc etc

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    15 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

    I thought Winters are getting warmer? If thats the case then 30C could be possible during December, 400 or 500 years down the road....  As for today, 20C isnt out of the question.

     Your post was talking about this December. Any case there is nothing to suggest 20C in the models. 

    " Its sad we might not get a dumping of snow but lets look forward to record breaking warmth for December.... 20C? 30C?"

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Vortex over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter

    Vortex not over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter

    Hugely impressive negative AO forecast - the charts are showing mild and wet for the UK

    I know the climate has changed and continues to warm but you'd think we'd still get some winters of note every so often

    2017-18 had its moments but the last 7 years (and counting) have been desperate for those who dare hope for a bit of wintry weather in, er, winter. And aside from the mid-90s cold blip and the spell between 2009 and 2013 it's been like this since winter 1987-88

    It's not even that most of us want 12 weeks of snow every year. A couple of snowy spells lasting a minimum of, say, 12 days (for each spell) per winter would do. So, say, 25-30 days in total. Not even a third of the winter. That's what some of those who don't like cold seem to forget - their mild horse comes in first virtually all the time and then begrudge coldies those increasingly rare moments when/if they do come. I don't want to be Canada, frankly. Their winters are far too long and cold. But a winter where you have about 25-30 days of significant cold and lying snow would be the ideal winter climate for me. I know others probably want more than that but I'd be happy as a pig in s*** if we got about 4 weeks worth of cold, proper winter weather every winter

    There were people mocking the Met Office for saying that snow will be a thing of the past by the 2040s if global warming is not slowed down. Calling it propaganda. Well, all you need to see is what's gone before and with the trajectory we are on - and have been since the last 80s - that is a very real possibility

    I can't even remember a significantly frosty December since 2010. A few days here and there (mid-December 2012 had some sharp frosts but didn't last more than 4-5 days) but nothing of note. So we don't even get THAT side of winter any more. Well, not in lowland southern England anyway. As others have said it might be time to find another hobby because chasing snow in the UK winter is becoming increasingly futile. There's enough disappintment in life without this too!! 

    Anyway rant over. I'm off to find something less frustrating to do - like playing snooker with a rope. Or something less irritating - like sticking pins in my face

     

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

    Morning, this from a total amateur  - my tuppence worth.. 

    This just a week away on GFS on 0Z

    image.thumb.png.a0772fc212d1665a3b279308edac5e86.png

     

    On 18Z

    image.thumb.png.6566304d80ee9d4a596b832e5a20239a.png

    18z was Milder in the SW,  not so on the 0Z.

    So, going by the GFS on it's own and with my really limited knowledge -  Not really mild, not really cold, possibly unsettled and a bit drab?  No sign of any massive change if I was going to bet, post 144 seems unpredictable and guess that's where the experienced come in.  Still could see some unexpected changes but could go either way.  At the moment though...cold and wet...PE weather for those who hated PE..  

    ECM and UKMO tell a different story, I'll leave that with others to comment on! 🙂 

     

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    9 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    I’m ashamed of you guys hyping up a white Xmas! Shame on you! I’m disgusted 

    From my memory you were hyping it up more than anyone else, as if it was a certainty - everyone else was merely highlighting potential

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    1 hour ago, LRD said:

    Vortex over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter

    Vortex not over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter

    Hugely impressive negative AO forecast - the charts are showing mild and wet for the UK

    I know the climate has changed and continues to warm but you'd think we'd still get some winters of note every so often

    2017-18 had its moments but the last 7 years (and counting) have been desperate for those who dare hope for a bit of wintry weather in, er, winter. And aside from the mid-90s cold blip and the spell between 2009 and 2013 it's been like this since winter 1987-88

     

     

    Yeah I'd really agreed that the climate has already changed. Remember there was no significant cold spell in lowland SE England from 1991 until 2009 - 18 year! From my point of view, under the parameters of the new climate, the 2010s absolutely spoilt us. The only month in this period I consider truly and unusually mild is obviously December 2015 - all other mild months fit into the new climatology well. 

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    For me winter seems to have gone a bit like summer,we seem to be getting more on the edges in November/early December and the end of Feb into April and where you would expect it from mid December to mid Feb seems to have become a mild affair.Similar to summer we seem to be getting better spring/Autumn at the cost of summer[except the south]

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    33 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

    Yeah I'd really agreed that the climate has already changed. Remember there was no significant cold spell in lowland SE England from 1991 until 2009 - 18 year! From my point of view, under the parameters of the new climate, the 2010s absolutely spoilt us. The only month in this period I consider truly and unusually mild is obviously December 2015 - all other mild months fit into the new climatology well. 

    You guys are so annoying! Climate change has nothing to do with it! We’ve rarely had white Decembers!!!! 

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