Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[davehsug]

It's easy to see how certain political decisions (which I can't mention) are arrived at. You drive people on with emotion, show them things that could never be, then blame somebody or something else when it all goes wrong. Admittedly, one or two are taking the official "government" line  that if we only believe hard enough, the polar bears will be on their street corner......in 10 days of course.

[StormyLincs]

1 minute ago, Ian Ballinger said:

They're entitled to their opinions.

True, but it’s very misleading for those trying to learn. 

[Stationary Front]

But the discussion is based on probabilities, surely weather enthusiasts know this??? Are some taking as gospel then? Seems to be those who appear in this thread who do, or disguise as being the champion of the ‘newbie’

[StormyLincs]

11 minutes ago, NPA said:

I'm very new to all this - what are they saying in the thread that is so egregious? I have noticed they always say it's 10 days away every 10 days or so...

Yes it’s always safely 10 days away. They see one run of stunning charts and they paint a Day After Tomorrow scenario, polar bears and frost fairs on the Thames. Very misleading and will always lead to disappointment I’m afraid. 

[Stationary Front]

Disappointment for who ??

[Froze were the Days]

17 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

Just watched BBC week ahead forecast that's just come out and they're saying there's lots of uncertainty towards next weekend. 

I think the Beeb are just behind with todays model outputs/data...both ECM and UKMO show the Atlantic ridge toppling close to the north of the country by the end of the week and to a degree the 12z GFS is showing similar...could be still quite cold in the south east but largely dry. Just a waiting game now until we see the SSW propagate down into the trop and soon you'd think gfs FI's would start to see some wild outputs be it mild or cold.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[StormyLincs]

5 minutes ago, Stationary Front said:

Disappointment for who ??

Disappointment for those that wish to see snowy weather and cold. 

[Weather-history]

47 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Too many armchair experts I’m afraid. 

I'm sorry but I thought you was one?

 

 

 

[Weather-history]

My area has done exceptionally well out of this, considering I live 20m asl and 9 miles to the SW of Manchester.

Saw snow on Christmas Day albeit a few flakes but totally wasn't unexpected. 

Snowfalls

28th, 29th, 30th, 31st December, 1st and 2nd January

7 days of lying snow under Met Office rules been slight thaws but snowfalls have topped up the cover. 

 

 

[Stationary Front]

 

9 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Disappointment for those that wish to see snowy weather and cold. 

Then don’t take probabilities as gospel, the talk of polar bears and the like, is obviously excitement and banter at what is being shown at that time, do posters now need to put a disclaimer at the foot of each post just in case someone might think it is definitely going to happen?

[AdrianHull]

Great day today for snow! Showers are really picking up now!

[NPA]

I am keeping my fingers crossed for milder weather to arrive soon. Can't wait for this drab cold stuff to go. Have to drive to work and the roads have been a bit risky recently. Bring on spring. 

[Barmada_Casten]

1 hour ago, YellowSnow said:

It’s hilariously entertaining as an onlooker, but people that are genuinely trying to learn about the weather it’s a disgrace and half the posts need removing. Too many armchair experts I’m afraid. 

It is absolutely that I’m afraid. It had always been there, even 17 years ago when I first joined the forums but the ramping and fantasising is beyond ridiculous. It should be restricted to ceratain members and have a minimum age requirement... that would make it much better.

[AdrianHull]

19 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Disappointment for those that wish to see snowy weather and cold. 

5 inches outside now! I'm happy!

[Jason74]

39 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

True, but it’s very misleading for those trying to learn. 

The level of impatience on here is only matched by that which I also see on football forums. Problem with the internet and social media, I suppose. Some of the posts over on the model thread today have been ridiculous with several people (seemingly) writing off winter. I stained glass windowin' despair. 

[StormyLincs]

3 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

It is absolutely that I’m afraid. It had always been there, even 17 years ago when I first joined the forums but the ramping and fantasising is beyond ridiculous. It should be restricted to ceratain members and have a minimum age requirement... that would make it much better.

I’ve been on here more or less the same amount of time as you and concur that it’s become ridiculous. There are a few sensible old time posters that keep things real, but the rest of the posts really need deleting. That’s why I don’t post on there anymore. 

[HellItsHot]

It seems to me that the models often show quite dramatic possibilities in the long term, which is what people find entertaining. Being the UK though, those possibilities are mostly watered down in the short term to mild and damp in the winter. Plumes etc seem to materialise more often in the summer. 
 

Even by their own standards, this has been quite a dramatic flip by the models to milder weather. This year there’s the consolation of the SSW, but to me that holds out the very real possibility of further disappointments. 

[StormyLincs]

2 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

The level of impatience on here is only matched by that which I also see on football forums. Problem with the internet and social media, I suppose. Some of the posts over on the model thread today have been ridiculous with several people (seemingly) writing off winter. I stained glass windowin' despair. 

I’m afraid writing off winter on January the 3rd is almost as ridiculous as some of the ‘new ice age cometh’ posters. I think I’ll leave it to the experts. Let’s face it, if the worlds most powerful super computers can’t predict the weather then what chance has anyone else got. I shall seek model guidance from my seaweed and the behaviour of grebes in future. 

[StormyLincs]

2 minutes ago, HellItsHot said:

It seems to me that the models often show quite dramatic possibilities in the long term, which is what people find entertaining. Being the UK though, those possibilities are mostly watered down in the short term to mild and damp in the winter. Plumes etc seem to materialise more often in the summer. 
 

Even by their own standards, this has been quite a dramatic flip by the models to milder weather. This year there’s the consolation of the SSW, but to me that holds out the very real possibility of further disappointments. 

Not all SSW’s end with snowmageddon. 

[IanT]

35 minutes ago, Stationary Front said:

But the discussion is based on probabilities, surely weather enthusiasts know this??? Are some taking as gospel then? Seems to be those who appear in this thread who do, or disguise as being the champion of the ‘newbie’

The lack of explicit acknowledgement of probabilities lies at the core of the problems that surface every winter on MOD thread. Charts at T240 are discussed with the same excitement as those at T48. The extremity of the output drives discussion, with inadequate discussion of the likelihood of verification.

I don’t know what the answer is! Perhaps a thread for discussion upto (say) 120h and another for anything thereafter? Or a concerted community effort to pay more attention to qualifying the likelihood of the outcomes being discussed? It is pointless saying “If that verifies COBRA will be meeting” without saying something about whether it is a 2% chance or an 85% chance.

[pegg24]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

I just get fed up with the same people who get away with making predictions and making it sound like a certainty. At least they should show the other side of the argument. And other people just never learn, salivating after charts then getting the hump when they don’t come true!

Yes it’s the same every year isn’t it yesterday I was gutted living  in the East Midlands and others getting snow.  Today I though oh well it’s only the weather. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by pegg24

[Jason M]

Might be worth staying out of the other thread for a bit as they journey along the 'change curve'.

Tonight we at denial but the next step is anger before acceptance is reached. Given the intensity and longevity of the ramping I predict a nasty hangover!!

In reality a 'significantly cold' spell has never been modelled at any point and what we have now is a couple of weeks of coldish weather which is nothing out of the ordinary (or at least shouldn't be at our latitude!!).

It may be that the SSW produces the goods in a few weeks but its not a done deal by any stretch and I still think too many assumptions are being made that a massive 1987 style easterly is going to arrive. It may do, but its more likely it won't. 

That said, things could definitely be a lot worse as unlike in previous years there is at least a possibility of something interesting and a few might still see some snow this week. To date though, with the notable exception of some lucky people who have had snow most people will barely have even registered this supposed cold spell. Other than a bit of rain the most a lot of people have seen is a couple of frosts.

Hopefully the ECM will make this post redundant by signaling the 1987 style easterly I've just rubbished (and not at day 10 for once)!! 

 

 

[StormyLincs]

I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a thought.

[TomB]

Been lurking on here for about a decade but have been compelled to sign up because of what I’ve seen today.

First off, by and large the forum is excellent and filled with informative, helpful people attempting to untangle a science that still has so many gaps in our understanding or even trying to fit together that which we do know. I feel like I’ve learnt a lot without having scratched the surface and I’m constantly in awe of those who can put so many different pieces together to arrive at a coherent view. I thank many of you for that. 
 

However the sniping, arrogance and crowing over the last couple of pages here is distasteful. Those implying an immaturity in posters seem to lack some perspective on how their own crowing appears when read by someone else.

People have their bias and have theirs hopes, sometimes this might go to far in to the analysis they’re attempting to give but I don’t see any malice in it, the same, unfortunately,  can’t be said for those who take so much pleasure in see those hopes fail.

it’s a shame, and the forum is a poorer place for it. 

 

 

 

[Jason M]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

I just get fed up with the same people who get away with making predictions and making it sound like a certainty. At least they should show the other side of the argument. And other people just never learn, salivating after charts then getting the hump when they don’t come true!

Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart and know its showing rain and not snow!  Unfortunately in life, giving a realistic message doesn't get the same level of likes as posting a random chart and claiming it shows a blizzard when in reality its showing a coldish day with a bit of rain. 

Its a bit like with Politicians. Everyone holds them in low esteem because they lie but the harsh truth is that we don't want our politicians to be honest we just want them to tell us everything will be fine. Any Politician who just told the truth would never get elected. Its this effect that we see in the main thread. If you post a chart and point out it shows rain you get stick, whereas if you just post the chart and say 'blizzards' you get 80 likes and 'post of the day' (especially if you slate someone else for being negative at the same time). Then when a cold spell turns up 4 weeks later you just claim you got it right all along but it was just a bit delayed and get another 80 likes .

I think what I'm trying to say is that I've just worked out what I'm doing wrong .

Just to be clear, I'm not criticizing anyone for making a prediction as otherwise life would be boring but I get bored of the attention seeking and need to be proved right. People like Blue and John Holmes are worth reading as in my experience he just tells it straight.