Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Man With Beard]

What's going on? Temperature 0C. Dewpoint -0.7C. All models forecasting snow for my area. Even the Met Office give snow. What is actually happening?

Rain 

Blasted warm air aloft!

 

[Deep Snow please]

16 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Some people aren't satisfied until they get a deep covering maybe a foot or more.. I'd be satisfied with seeing a few flakes falling, that's how low I've set my bar, doesn't matter what the synoptics look like anymore.. 

 

I think quite a few people on here are too obsessed with wanting to be around for a historic whether event they can't appreciate the run of the mill ones. Or even the slightly remarkable ones. There's a couple of inches of snow outside, go enjoy it. 

[Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

I think quite a few people on here are too obsessed with wanting to be around for a historic whether event they can't appreciate the run of the mill ones. Or even the slightly remarkable ones. There's a couple of inches of snow outside, go enjoy it. 

True, it's ok I'll go sledging on the mud

 

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

What's going on? Temperature 0C. Dewpoint -0.7C. All models forecasting snow for my area. Even the Met Office give snow. What is actually happening?

Rain 

Blasted warm air aloft!

 

I think I’ve figured out your problem wet bulb zero level too high.

 

[sparky1972]

2 minutes ago, Freeze said:

True, it's ok I'll go sledging on the mud

 

and i will get my surfboard as here the fields are more like lakes, lol

[Flake news]

Cold rain with nasty ice bits, treacherous glassy bike paths.  I wanted an easterly now I've got buyer's remorse.

[snowblizzard]

I've just seen the very sobering post from John Holmes in the mod thread.

I'm beginning to think our hopes of a noteworthy spell of wintry weather during the next couple of weeks look like being dashed once again!

It just feels virtually impossible to get the required set-up in order to deliver really cold air into UK  

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by snowblizzard

[saintkip]

It’s starting to go downhill, the sensible posters like John and blue army killing the dream. 

[mathematician]

1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

Yay, at last, all this chilly weather and we have been rewarded,  with rain, we are so lucky lucky lucky, lol,  and nothing but cloud and rain for the foreseeable.

so frustrating right?

 

I wish I could move to Canada. Sick and tired of this weather.

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

Yay, at last, all this chilly weather and we have been rewarded,  with rain, we are so lucky lucky lucky, lol,  and nothing but cloud and rain for the foreseeable.

In south Yorkshire we have been rewarded with snow so you can't really say that "we" will get rain for the foreseeable....

[topo]

Personally, I make the same mistake every year at the start of the winter. Watching the models beyond 72 hours for the long term.

Even the ensembles are a joke after 120 hours.. ECMWF ensembles today changed from -6 to -3 in just one run for 180 hours ahead!!!

I am stopping model watching for a week 

[IanR]

Quite a dumping of snow here on the very low elevation Wigan area during Sunday night /Monday,  well for here at least

Whats strange the places a few miles just north of here and higher ground such as the aptly named Winter Hill got very little if any ,  thats almost unheard of , not normal for this area  , but since when has 2020 been normal  

[NewEra21]

Cold spell, what cold spell? I get some places have seen snow, but the majority of places have just seen a wet mix at best. We're barely touching freezing point at night and it's dull, dreary and damp. And to top it off, if the easterly forecast from the weekend/beginning of the week brings nothing but cold rain I just cba anymore.

I understand the current pattern we're in is phenomenal, but unfortunately we just don't have enough cold air on offer to tap into. I know everyone keeps saying the cold will come and we've got the SSW to come. But there's no guarantees that will work out for us, it could just put the states in the freezer with a Bartlett over us and Europe.

Synoptically everything just feels a waste right now, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels that way!

Edited December 29, 2020 by NewEra21

[Summer Sun]

The met office have issued a level 3 alert for severe cold weather in northern England

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 09:01 on Tue 29 Dec 2020

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Tuesday 29 Dec and 0900 on Friday 01 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

The current spell of colder weather is expected to continue through the remainder of this week, due to cold northerly air affecting the country. Temperatures are expected to fall be at persistently low single figures, particularly across the northern England, with an increased risk of meeting alert criteria. All areas are likely to see cold, overnight conditions, with a risk of icy patches and overnight frosts. Temperatures in some areas will then remain in low single figures during the daytime. Showers will be mainly restricted to coastal areas, but where these move inland, they may turn wintry, with low temperatures resulting in a chance of snow to low levels at times, especially across the north. An area of rain, which could turn to sleet or snow at times, is forecast to affect southern regions and maybe southern central areas from Wednesday afternoon and perhaps into Thursday. Although there is low confidence in the exact track and northerly extent of the rain, sleet and snow, there is a risk that it could produce snow accumulations to low levels across parts of southern and southeastern England. A widespread ice risk is then forecast following the clearance of the rain. The trend in temperatures and wintry conditions will be monitored, with a likelihood that the warning will be extended through into next week.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

[Summer Sun]

Snow and Ice warnings issued/updated

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

[Frigid]

A good 2-3 cm of snow today. Totally unexpected the forecast was showing sleet and showers for the morning. Winter has started off well imo. This December albeit quite mild CET-wise has been the most interesting since 2010 for my area with the snow at the start of the month, a flurry on Christmas Day and today.

[Brassmonkeylily]

A very 'what mega cold spell'? appraisal from John Holmes .....nothing super cold or extreme just normal winter fare  ..the model thread is sure starting to wobble ...again !

 

 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS & GFS(p) in FI give me a bad feeling....

Ouch!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Howie said:

Ouch!

I wish I hadn't questioned the reality of Meteorological Haemorrhoids now!

[SnowSalah]

Classic case of counting their chickens before they’re hatched!! Including me too.. sort of.. it’s hard not to get carried away with the output that was being shown but no doubt further chops and changes to be expected (hopefully).

SS

[Flake news]

2 hours ago, saintkip said:

It’s starting to go downhill, the sensible posters like John and blue army killing the dream. 

In the old economy JH would get a commission for his contributions.  It's like enthusiastic teachers not being paid money because their reward is the adrenalin rush of doing what they love.  

[SLEETY]

Upto, t144 the semi-reliable timeframe the chartsare  looking good,but some posters get more concerned about fl charts,no wonder newbies get confused,they should bring back the short-term model outlook again,please?

[Hullsnow87]

Guys calm down most winters we would love to see charts like we have now within the reliable time frame. The models will chop and change as there is a lot going on in the strat etc lots just enjoy the ride this is like no winter for the last 10 years, let’s see where we go from here hopefully cold and snowy but we shall see if a few days.

[summer blizzard]

Feb 05 was actually fine here with 16 days of falling snow (not matched since) but no real persistence of cover and the Feb 23rd or 25th event was tame here (airport got 7 inches I think).

Jan 19th 06 was the missed event when -20C uppers got as far west as Norway. The models never really lied to us for long though so it was not like Dec 12th.

Mid-Dec 09-mid- Jan 10 was certainly exceptional. Not as cold as Dec 10 but more snowy. I recorded snow on the first ground for 30 days and 29cm, both records here.

[jethro]

When all around is brown and mucky

And the weather offers wet and yucky

Keep a hope that it will change

To white and crisp, it's within the range

Of dreams that may well soon come true

That snow and blizzards are coming to you