Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[sparky1972]

well its so cold outside its raining, the sign of things to come, lol

[Portsmouth Sun]

20 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

well its so cold outside its raining, the sign of things to come, lol

Fret not, someone on the mod thread will come out with a D16 chart to get peoples hopes up.

[Jason M]

2 hours ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

Fret not, someone on the mod thread will come out with a D16 chart to get peoples hopes up.

Ramping dialed up to 10 this evening on the MOD thread. Interesting fact though is that the day 10 mean has the UK under -3 to -5c at 850.  

Now it may be that in the coming days we see amazing charts that are actually genuinely cold but this is so overhyped its beyond crazy. 

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Extended cold becoming more likely as the days roll. Something fairly major is going to need to appear in the background forcings to prevent Jan 2021 becoming famously blocked, probably cold and hopefully snowy.

I found my hat yesterday. Have decided to order in more heating oil and another trailer of logs...............

A top 10 UK winter!

Was called 3 weeks ago and is definitely called now! 

The question is? 

How far up the top 10 leader board does it go?

My prediction.

Number 3 behind 63 and 47.

Better than 2010 for the sheer length of time we will remain below average and because it will happen in the best month. January!

Chaces just increase with every run.

Never have tropical signals and the strat done such a beautifully choreagraphed dance to unfold for me a minimum of 4 weeks of weather porn!

Happy Scotty!

What a year to get involved on this board!

[Stu_London]

hope it doesn't all end in tears (or tiers)

I try to stay grounded following countless disappointments over the last 20 years of watching the models and 17 and a half years on and off the forum, but I am now leaning towards a noteworthy cold spell being more likely than not and I am starting to entertain the possibility of something a bit more exceptional than noteworthy. 

To benchmark noteworthy and exceptional I give the following examples in the last decade or so 

 

Feb 2009 - noteworthy

Jan 2010 - noteworthy

Dec 2010 - exceptional

Mar 2013 - exceptional

Feb/Mar 2018 - noteworthy

[Stu_London]

In all seriousness, whilst most on this forum are excited by a prolonged period of severe cold weather, we should remember that we are in a minority. 

On the back of CV19 and likely disruptions adapting to a post brexit world, this would in many ways be kicking the country whilst its down. 

All very well setting up mass vaccination hubs to vaccinate 2 million a week, if no-one can get to them. Remember the elderly and those with underlying health issues are supposed to be first up and they will find dealing with this a lot harder than the remainder of the population. 

[kold weather]

48 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

hope it doesn't all end in tears (or tiers)

I try to stay grounded following countless disappointments over the last 20 years of watching the models and 17 and a half years on and off the forum, but I am now leaning towards a noteworthy cold spell being more likely than not and I am starting to entertain the possibility of something a bit more exceptional than noteworthy. 

To benchmark noteworthy and exceptional I give the following examples in the last decade or so 

 

Feb 2009 - noteworthy

Jan 2010 - noteworthy

Dec 2010 - exceptional

Mar 2013 - exceptional

Feb/Mar 2018 - noteworthy

I'd also perhaps add late Feb 2006-Mar 2006. That had two pretty sustained cold spells and was on for a sub 4C month until a warm spell came along for the last week. (indeed it took till the 25th March to record a day over 15c showing how cold that first 20 days was. Interestingly it had the same CET as March 2018 as well.

Though definitely not in the bracket of March 2013, I'd say for its bursts of cold it was still noteworthy, especially at the time, but its been rather forgotten as frankly, better has come along since then.

Edited December 29, 2020 by kold weather

[Stu_London]

9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'd also perhaps add late Feb 2006-Mar 2006. That had two pretty sustained cold spells and was on for a sub 4C month until a warm spell came along for the last week. (indeed it took till the 25th March to record a day over 15c showing how cold that first 20 days was. Despite that warmer last week, it ranks as the joint 5th coldest March since 1964 in the CET region with March 2018...

Though definitely not in the bracket of March 2013, I'd say for its bursts of cold it was still noteworthy, especially at the time, but its been rather forgotten as frankly, better has come along since then.

Remember it quite well - lived in Central London at the time and saw lots of falling but precious little laying snow. I know some parts not far out of the centre did well as did a lot of the South East and Eastern England.

Wasn't that the same year as that one of the most spectacular model busts of all time occurred. Seem to recall a very well signalled long lasting easterly (quite a bit more severe than what we actually got in the end) that was due a week or two before the cold set in completely imploding in the space of one or two GFS runs. 

Jan 2013 nearly made it onto the list, but from what I recall it promised far more than it delivered, not that I was concerned as spent most of the month in ICU. 

One more - the countrywide thundersnow event of 2003 (I think, maybe 2002), was one of the most remarkable events I have ever witnessed. Temps dropped about 5C from the start of the squall line to the end. Went from torrential rain to 2 inches of snow on a layer of about a cm of ice in Central London in the space of 20 minutes. Only an event in an otherwise non-descript winter, so doesn't make the noteworthy cut.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Stu_London

[seajamiet]

I find this so surreal at the moment. I've been following the models for around 4-5 years and I've never seen model output quite like it. I do remember March 2018 but that was a short but sharp BFTE. Not like now where the entire GFS output is significantly below average throughout from start to end with plenty of time for snow to fall.

For those more experienced, are you finding this as surreal as I am, and have you seen this before?

Just wondering what response we will get from the weather orgs; Met Office etc and whether they'll start to hint at the current output.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Remember it quite well - lived in Central London at the time and saw lots of falling but precious little laying snow. I know some parts not far out of the centre did well as did a lot of the South East and Eastern England.

Wasn't that the same year as that one of the most spectacular model busts of all time occurred. Seem to recall a very well signalled long lasting easterly (quite a bit more severe than what we actually got in the end) that was due a week or two before the cold set in completely imploding in the space of one or two GFS runs. 

Jan 2013 nearly made it onto the list, but from what I recall it promised far more than it delivered, not that I was concerned as spent most of the month in ICU. 

 

I think that may have been in January 2006, I can't remember that well since nearly every cold spell form that era got downgraded to some extent

I also remember Feb 2005 which at one point was basically modeled like those big 80s cold spells. Whilst we did have a cold spell, it was kinda like this week, very marginal. We did briefly tap into deeper cold and there was a somewhat ok snow event right at the start of March, but yeah, it was nothing like it was originally progged to be.

Locally back in S.Essex I did quite well thanks to several Thames streamers that set in, and actually it had quite a long stretch where somewhere got snow in the UK, but it was most known for a terrible bust with a LP that came in from the north sea. The models quite widely went with snow, but the front came in weaker than expected and basically dissolved into a drizzle sleety mess - I remember being out in it and it was raw and unpleasant. 

[Stu_London]

4 minutes ago, seajamiet said:

I find this so surreal at the moment. I've been following the models for around 4-5 years and I've never seen model output quite like it. I do remember March 2018 but that was a short but sharp BFTE. Not like now where the entire GFS output is significantly below average throughout from start to end with plenty of time for snow to fall.

For those more experienced, are you finding this as surreal as I am, and have you seen this before?

Just wondering what response we will get from the weather orgs; Met Office etc and whether they'll start to hint at the current output.

There is unusual output for sure. December 2010 had similarities for sure both in extraordinary patterns being predicted, which came off largely and the run up, with a stressed vortex. That was a 5 week spell and we are 2 days into this one so lots of twists and turns to come - we need to get some deeper cold entrenched here and in northern europe for it to progress to a classic. 

[Azazel]

3 hours ago, Stu_London said:

Remember it quite well - lived in Central London at the time and saw lots of falling but precious little laying snow. I know some parts not far out of the centre did well as did a lot of the South East and Eastern England.

Wasn't that the same year as that one of the most spectacular model busts of all time occurred. Seem to recall a very well signalled long lasting easterly (quite a bit more severe than what we actually got in the end) that was due a week or two before the cold set in completely imploding in the space of one or two GFS runs. 

Jan 2013 nearly made it onto the list, but from what I recall it promised far more than it delivered, not that I was concerned as spent most of the month in ICU. 

One more - the countrywide thundersnow event of 2003 (I think, maybe 2002), was one of the most remarkable events I have ever witnessed. Temps dropped about 5C from the start of the squall line to the end. Went from torrential rain to 2 inches of snow on a layer of about a cm of ice in Central London in the space of 20 minutes. Only an event in an otherwise non-descript winter, so doesn't make the noteworthy cut.

The thunder snow event was 2004 I’m pretty sure of it. Never seen anything like it before or since.

[Speedbird]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The vents uppers.. well into January... the 10hpa around now..!! Stark..stark indeed!!!  Zonal winds turnaround.. and the paint dripping IS underway!!!!!!!.. we are seriously likely to be in the game BIG... on we move... ecm ooz/6zs etc......

Good lord . . .

[Dan the Man]

3 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Good lord . . .

Going to be some speedy trips across the Atlantic looking at that jet...

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, Dan the Man said:

Going to be some speedy trips across the Atlantic looking at that jet...

But remember- these are 10hpa sequence.. not FL-500/100 hpa JS...

[Radiating Dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Dan the Man said:

Going to be some speedy trips across the Atlantic looking at that jet...

If they're in a space shuttle.

I think that is well above commercial airlines. 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

But remember- these are 10hpa sequence.. not FL-500/100 hpa JS...

For reference/compare @300hrs.  The vents @10hpa.. and the get @100..  complete contrasts... anyway bk to the brutal models that behold 2021.. @ classic in the making!!!!!

[Scott Ingham]

On 26/12/2020 at 22:32, Snowy L said:

Whatever happens we are heading for some very strange and for the UK a very rare weather pattern. Don't remember ever having what looks like 10 days of a bit cooler than average temperatutes. Almost like we are generating and self-sustaining  our own homegrown cold pool, after the initial injection of cold from this weekend's storm. 

Well tonight was unexpected 5cm of snow and counting when it was supposed to be a +250 metres event.

After Stoke were doing well for marginal events!

[mathematician]

7 hours ago, Jason M said:

Ramping dialed up to 10 this evening on the MOD thread. Interesting fact though is that the day 10 mean has the UK under -3 to -5c at 850.  

Now it may be that in the coming days we see amazing charts that are actually genuinely cold but this is so overhyped its beyond crazy. 

Yep... it will mean exactly what is going on right now for most of the country. The "beautiful" (I am sarcastic of course) cold rain. Rainy days and 2 degrees. Like not winning the lottery by missing one number only...

 

The main thread has become unreadable. This one is a breath of fresh air. Remember that we were promised Narnia by some "famous" posters there for the period 28th -29th....

[V for Very Cold]

Looked at the forecast.... and mby has several days of cool dry quiet weather.... jam is always at t240

Boy am I hoping for some changes lol

[Had Worse]

It just gets better and better.

[V for Very Cold]

3 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

It just gets better and better.

That’s just showing off! Lololol

[sparky1972]

Yay, at last, all this chilly weather and we have been rewarded,  with rain, we are so lucky lucky lucky, lol,  and nothing but cloud and rain for the foreseeable.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

Yay, at last, all this chilly weather and we have been rewarded,  with rain, we are so lucky lucky lucky, lol,  and nothing but cloud and rain for the foreseeable.

We got snow here this morning. Decent covering but soon be gone 

[Freeze]

9 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

Yay, at last, all this chilly weather and we have been rewarded,  with rain, we are so lucky lucky lucky, lol,  and nothing but cloud and rain for the foreseeable.

Some people aren't satisfied until they get a deep covering maybe a foot or more.. I'd be satisfied with seeing a few flakes falling, that's how low I've set my bar, doesn't matter what the synoptics look like anymore..