Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[KTtom]

You have to laugh, 6 hours ago the gfs was a laughing stock of the model world, this evening it shows an easterly and is god! 

[Snipper]

22 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

This wasn't out of nowhere, has been forecast for a good few days to a week. The difference is rather than sitting in Essex wishing upon a star for snow, I live somewhere that reliably gets it each winter. A lot of these miseries in the mad thread should try it. 

How do you know if it will occur or not.? I said snow out of no where that hadn’t been forecast. It doesn’t matter where you are. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Snipper

[Portsmouth Sun]

Just now, KTtom said:

You have to laugh, 6 hours ago the gfs was a laughing stock of the model world, this evening it shows an easterly and is god! 

Fickle bunch on there aren't they.   A lot of them were banking charts that would have buried us in snow already, now they are looking well into January for some snow.  Funny old world. 

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, Snipper said:

How do you know if it will occur or not.? I said snow out if no where that hadn’t been forecast. It doesn’t matter where you are. 

Well you were responded to my post discussing today's snowfall round here, so not unreasonable to assume you were talking about that.

 

The best snow events tend to be well forecast ones when the cold has already been locked in and you've no need to worry about the margins.

 

As I said, if you want regular snowfall and to stop banging your head against brick walls wishing upon a star, move up north to somewhere reasonably above sea level. We haven't had a winter for quite a few years that hasn't had at least a couple of decent snowfalls. If you live in the south and moan you don't get much snow, move if you want it or stop moaning. 

[SLEETY]

5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Well you were responded to my post discussing today's snowfall round here, so not unreasonable to assume you were talking about that.

 

The best snow events tend to be well forecast ones when the cold has already been locked in and you've no need to worry about the margins.

 

As I said, if you want regular snowfall and to stop banging your head against brick walls wishing upon a star, move up north to somewhere reasonably above sea level. We haven't had a winter for quite a few years that hasn't had at least a couple of decent snowfalls. If you live in the south and moan you don't get much snow, move if you want it or stop moaning. 

Since when is Blackburn known for snow,and would not get hit by those easterly streamers   ,too far West a better bet would be a high village in the North York Moors to pick up those Easterly Streamers,

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Well you were responded to my post discussing today's snowfall round here, so not unreasonable to assume you were talking about that.

 

The best snow events tend to be well forecast ones when the cold has already been locked in and you've no need to worry about the margins.

 

As I said, if you want regular snowfall and to stop banging your head against brick walls wishing upon a star, move up north to somewhere reasonably above sea level. We haven't had a winter for quite a few years that hasn't had at least a couple of decent snowfalls. If you live in the south and moan you don't get much snow, move if you want it or stop moaning. 

I am quite happy to make comment that might be treated in isolation although related. 
 

Down south snow events on the whole are few and far between. 
 

Recall having to get my dad from hospital after he was left buggered after a car crash. Unconscious for several months.  My mum and me left home and it was jaffa cakesing it down and that was the forecast. As we travelled it turned to sleet, snow and then very heavy snow. The ground was wet but was soon was covered to an increasing depth of snow. So slippery. 
 

Memorable for many reasons but particularly the snow. 
 

That is what I call an unexpected event. 
 

 

[Bradley in Kent]

Living in Kent on highish ground I'm reasonably happy with the climate although if I had my own way I'd have something like Eastern Canada.

Compared to the rest of the UK, Kent still gets some snow in Winter (especially from an Easterly) but has way better weather in Summer. 

I'd rather have less snow but better and longer summers. I feel sorry more my relatives who live near The Wirral, no snow in winter and terrible, terrible summers

[Deep Snow please]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Since when is Blackburn known for snow,and would not get hit by those easterly streamers   ,too far West a better bet would be a high village in the North York Moors to pick up those Easterly Streamers,

Since I've lived here at least, a few snow events a winter. It gets westerly streamers from the Irish Sea. I actually live here unlike you and have had at least 2-3 snow events every winter for the past few years, and talking to others round here relatively similar most years. Before that I lived in the North East and got snow regularly there too. Don't think I've gone a winter in the last decade without at least one snow event, how many of you south of the midlands can say that?

 

Also means you can do something outside the rest of winter, rather than up in the darkest reaches of the lakes or moors where you can't go outside for months on end. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Deep Snow please

[Valleyboy]

14 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Not every easterly is a beast however. Longevity, uppers, size and shape of high all are factors. 1986, 1991 and 2018, the only true beasts in the last 35 years, in my opinion. 

There are more examples, jan 1982 was also the real deal, and more extreme than 2018.

[Deep Snow please]

40 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Not every easterly is a beast however. Longevity, uppers, size and shape of high all are factors. 1986, 1991 and 2018, the only true beasts in the last 35 years, in my opinion. 

 

Wasn't one of the 2009/2010 winters a Beast from the East? 

[daz_4]

What I expect to see in models when reading the MOD thread.

What models are actually showing.

Is it just me? 

Edited December 27, 2020 by daz_4

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Kevo22 said:

Well I agree with all of that but I just put it down to my age. The kids seem to like it. 

Here’s the proper chart from Christmas 81.

Beats the rubbish the kids listen to now.

The proper chart is on Mixcloud, but can’t seem to find it.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Sunny76

[iceman1991]

38 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Let’s be careful, fantastic GFS 12z but DO NOT go and tell your families snow and cold is coming  

The way that 4 runs in a row have been so significantly different suggests we should be very careful, those height rises around Iceland are notoriously troublesome. 
 

When I woke up this morning and saw the laughable difference between the 0z and last nights 18z I said to be very wary with the GFS and I’d stand by that for now until we see some consistency.

Toys will be thrown out the pram tomorrow morning lol 

[Deep Snow please]

10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Sensible answer. I look at the heat anomalies at 10hp and factor that into High and low height placements but i dont believe its that simple is it.

If we do get a double down on current synoptics its a bit mad and fascinating to believe where we could be.

Further iniection of cold onto an already very cold and snowy surface by then....

So fascinating to watch this unfold.. as a scientist this is so much fun! 

Lets hope it enforces a lockdown as another positive in regards to covid eh!

That observation of the jumps in output.

I think your bang on its seen time and again when were about to hit rare set ups

It wouldn't be a positive at all regards Covid, I love a cold winter as much as anyone but a prolonged period of cold weather and the strain on emergency services and council budgets that would bring could well be the straw that broke the camels back for a lot of services and councils. 2010, the closest analogue to what the optimists are pinging, caused severe pressure on hospitals and councils. 

 

Ok - seen as this has been moved, I was avoiding going into detail - every time there's a cold snap there's news stories about NHS crisis - not to mention how difficult it is for vulnerable folk who need home care to access it in severe winters. Yes, we all want a bit of snow, but to pretend this is good for Covid is a nonsense - a potential NHS crisis, on top of an existing one and councils who already face bankruptcy from overspending to ease Covid issues, now faced with mounting costs of snow clearance and gritting. It would be a disaster. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Deep Snow please

[Portsmouth Sun]

55 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

What I expect to see in models when reading the MOD thread.

What models are actually showing.

Is it just me? 

 

Spot on.  The coming weeks look mainly dry with periods of rain, sleet and borderline snow.  Anything "banked" hasn't come off.    Temperatures will be average or just below, but certainly no ice age.  

 

[hillbilly]

1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Wasn't one of the 2009/2010 winters a Beast from the East? 

No!

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, hillbilly said:

No!

Ok I'm interested in knowing what the separating criteria are from a meteorological perspective. 

 

Those winters where characterised by Easterlies no? 

[AderynCoch]

2 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Living in Kent on highish ground I'm reasonably happy with the climate although if I had my own way I'd have something like Eastern Canada.

Compared to the rest of the UK, Kent still gets some snow in Winter (especially from an Easterly) but has way better weather in Summer. 

I'd rather have less snow but better and longer summers. I feel sorry more my relatives who live near The Wirral, no snow in winter and terrible, terrible summers

Summers on the Wirral aren't that bad by UK standards. It's the "winters" that are truly terrible. 

[hillbilly]

Just now, Deep Snow please said:

Ok I'm interested in knowing what the separating criteria are from a meteorological perspective. 

 

Those winters where characterised by Easterlies no? 

I am a novice when it comes to explaining weather charts,am sure many others on here can explain on my behalf but as far as i am aware winter 2009/2010 was a Northerly  based event with nothing from the East,am not fully sure about December 2010 but i think that was also Northerly based.Maybe i am wrong but My Grandparents used to talk about 'Beast from the East',probably referring to 1963 and 1947 namely but Certainly since 1979 i have never heard it used by Meteorologists until 2018,now many are backtracking and calling many winters BFTE when the term was never used at the time.

 

[North East Blizzard]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

You have to laugh, 6 hours ago the gfs was a laughing stock of the model world, this evening it shows an easterly and is god! 

Tbf, its not alone, most models going for some kind of High pressure north of the UK, dragging in a continental feed. 

[Ventnor Viking]

Winter is rubbish on the Isle of Wight! Virtually all of the UK under 3c and some even in the minus figures, but here in Ventnor is 7.5c and feels really mild out  

[Coopsy]

2 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Living in Kent on highish ground I'm reasonably happy with the climate although if I had my own way I'd have something like Eastern Canada.

Compared to the rest of the UK, Kent still gets some snow in Winter (especially from an Easterly) but has way better weather in Summer. 

I'd rather have less snow but better and longer summers. I feel sorry more my relatives who live near The Wirral, no snow in winter and terrible, terrible summers

I agree having originally lived high on the north downs in Kent I’ve experienced many a good snowfall in my time. And so many good summers. It strikes the right balance.  Not a patch on the Canadian Rockies of course )

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Coopsy

[Bradley in Kent]

2 hours ago, Coopsy said:

I agree having originally lived high on the north downs in Kent I’ve experienced many a good snowfall in my time. And so many good summers. It strikes the right balance.  Not a patch on the Canadian Rockies of course )

 

Yeah give me -5C in winter and 25C in Summer However if you said I could only have one or the other, I'd have the warm summer as good summer weather has way more of an impact on the my life.

I've spent a fair amount of time up North, sometimes weeks at a time and quickly got fed up with '17C, breezy and patchy showers' when friends back home were enjoying 25C (sometimes more) being able to comfortably eat and cook outside etc etc. 

A quick side note regarding the Rockies, I lived with someone from Calgary who said because of the Chinook winds, they often manage 15C in the middle of winter. They also call it the Snow Eater!

[Coopsy]

12 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Yeah give me -5C in winter and 25C in Summer However if you said I could only have one or the other, I'd have the warm summer as good summer weather has way more of an impact on the my life.

I've spent a fair amount of time up North, sometimes weeks at a time and quickly got fed up with '17C, breezy and patchy showers' when friends back home were enjoying 25C (sometimes more) being able to comfortably eat and cook outside etc etc. 

A quick side note regarding the Rockies, I lived with someone from Calgary who said because of the Chinook winds, they often manage 15C in the middle of winter. They also call it the Snow Eater!

A lot of my family live in scotland. The summers I’ve spent up there with coats on has shocked me. There’s a huge difference the further south and east you go. 
 

Yup I’ve seen the temp rise from minus 15 to plus 15 in hours. Because it’s so dry it certainly does eat up the snow. But the upsloping snows are something else (as happened last week) feet of snow in a day . 

[Bradley in Kent]

6 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

A lot of my family live in scotland. The summers I’ve spent up there with coats on has shocked me. There’s a huge difference the further south and east you go. 
 

Yup I’ve seen the temp rise from minus 15 to plus 15 in hours. Because it’s so dry it certainly does eat up the snow. But the upsloping snows are something else (as happened last week) feet of snow in a day . 

Wow that is a chop and change, sounds like a wardrobe challenge when getting ready for work!

I've just seen you're location and realise you'll of course already know all the Chinook winds!