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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

around -4, could be enough with low thicknesses, but as always hills favoured

ECM0-144.GIF?21-0

When I lived there in the mid seventies I remember loads of freezing fog and hoar frost and some great snow (takes rosy tinted glasses off)

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
36 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Wet and windy.  Can't stop laughing 

Did You Mean To Qoute Me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Godstone Surrey
  • Location: Godstone Surrey

The model thread is now full of useless clueless know it all 's ... whats happened to all the Pro's who gave solid guidance and advice regardless of the type of weather .sorry some are still there such as JH and Nick ....John must hold his head in despair!! The potential flooding and heavy rain forecast this week  barely gets a mention 

The coldaphiles and some of the constant posters need their own thread 

I am done !

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
35 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

The potential flooding and heavy rain forecast this week  barely gets a mention

I’m surprised this hasn’t been mentioned either. All this talk about finding a flake or two but at what cost? Wednesday looks particularly wet. 
 

The MOD page reminds me of this sometimes 

E689C33D-A343-4E52-8159-7C90BBCD8EBB.webp

 

Edited by Josh Rubio
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Areas beginning to flood down here now. Rainfall is over 150mm for the month, with another deluge on the way.

This December is turning out to be the worst since 2013.

Just to add, quickly..

You can see why the Met Office' warning contains uncertainty;

viewimage.thumb.png.de1520759831029c77a2e520a47cd0f9.png

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

We may not be seeing the kind of pretty runs that we saw early in the month but I must admit that for the first time since Jan 19 I am getting reasonably excited for our prospects.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

nice overall run- however everything that comes in the cold / 'snowy' GFS runs requires the key of high pressure remaining in situ over Greenland or a wedge over Iceland > even if like the 18z its a low amplitude GH it does the trick-

We are persistently seeing this modelled within the 192 > 240 outputs but once the resolution increases just like today we find energy spilling over the top keeping the high toppling.

It seems our best chance cold for a long while but its not quite falling into place just yet...

Hi Steve, 

Long time no talk.

We have been here so many times that i am hesitant to ramp too much. We know it can go pear shaped when we get within the reliable time frame. Things are looking very promising though so fingers crossed.

One thing that, perhaps has been mentioned somewhere, is the greatly reduced number of  flights over the pandemic period might contribute to the reduction in world temperatures. This might help with lower temperatures this winter. I know there are lots of other positive contributing factors but just thought i would throw that one in as well. If i remember correctly, when 9/11 happened, and all US flights were grounded for 24 hours, the temps over there US dropped by 1c in that 24 hour period.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
4 hours ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

The model thread is now full of useless clueless know it all 's ... whats happened to all the Pro's who gave solid guidance and advice regardless of the type of weather .sorry some are still there such as JH and Nick ....John must hold his head in despair!! The potential flooding and heavy rain forecast this week  barely gets a mention 

The coldaphiles and some of the constant posters need their own thread 

I am done !

 

 

 

I hope this has nothing to do with me....

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
5 hours ago, John Cox said:

Hi Steve, 

Long time no talk.

We have been here so many times that i am hesitant to ramp too much. We know it can go pear shaped when we get within the reliable time frame. Things are looking very promising though so fingers crossed.

One thing that, perhaps has been mentioned somewhere, is the greatly reduced number of  flights over the pandemic period might contribute to the reduction in world temperatures. This might help with lower temperatures this winter. I know there are lots of other positive contributing factors but just thought i would throw that one in as well. If i remember correctly, when 9/11 happened, and all US flights were grounded for 24 hours, the temps over there US dropped by 1c in that 24 hour period.

Its just my opinion but add in the lack of the brown ring of pollution surrounding the earts atmosphere which I saw in a photo from space after 9/11 and you may allow more heat to be radiated to space more easily I feel we may end up with a more old fashioned winter with snow arriving between Christmas and New Year and the cold building and peaking in February.

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10 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Areas beginning to flood down here now. Rainfall is over 150mm for the month, with another deluge on the way.

This December is turning out to be the worst since 2013.

Just to add, quickly..

You can see why the Met Office' warning contains uncertainty;

viewimage.thumb.png.de1520759831029c77a2e520a47cd0f9.png

Yeah we really could do with several weeks of dry weather as the ground underfoot is completely sodden. Even my golf course which is on probably the driest ground in the area is almost unplayable. 

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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

Well there goes my seasonal Christmas. Would rather have zonality which would at least result in snowfall on higher grounds. What a horrible winter so far in Central Europe.

image.thumb.png.bb56368a1971f2b843466c1ac4cc5040.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
18 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

Never mind analysing chart after chart after chart.... the fact the model thread is silent at 7:30am is testament to a cool but dull Xmas day 

Roasting! Models have been showing bright conditions for the day as well across many areas.

42B8E022-F15C-41F9-AC28-7B36D5165FF3.thumb.png.15fe8d04387a93093e4c510652655543.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

I think people are now finally coming to realise next week will be a bit of nothingness snow wise, besides on hills. 

All this talk of the uppers will be fine etc was all just people fooling themselves into false hope. Next week was never looking cold enough for snow for the majority of people. 

Anything coming down from the NW requires much lower uppers, and what cold does come down pretty much gets washed out in that washing machine of a ball shaped low sitting over us.

I want the cold and snow as much as anyone on here, but the reality is as nice as some of these charts might look. There's simply not enough cold air associated with them. Don't mean to sound like a grinch, but that's just my honest opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
11 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I think people are now finally coming to realise next week will be a bit of nothingness snow wise, besides on hills. 

All this talk of the uppers will be fine etc was all just people fooling themselves into false hope. Next week was never looking cold enough for snow for the majority of people. 

Anything coming down from the NW requires much lower uppers, and what cold does come down pretty much gets washed out in that washing machine of a ball shaped low sitting over us.

I want the cold and snow as much as anyone on here, but the reality is as nice as some of these charts might look. There's simply not enough cold air associated with them. Don't mean to sound like a grinch, but that's just my honest opinion.

Agree sadly, only exciting for those in Buxton, or obvious Scottish folk, this setup on a few runs now has 4th Dec 2020 written all over it, and aye, not a flake here

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
26 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I think people are now finally coming to realise next week will be a bit of nothingness snow wise, besides on hills. 

All this talk of the uppers will be fine etc was all just people fooling themselves into false hope. Next week was never looking cold enough for snow for the majority of people. 

Anything coming down from the NW requires much lower uppers, and what cold does come down pretty much gets washed out in that washing machine of a ball shaped low sitting over us.

I want the cold and snow as much as anyone on here, but the reality is as nice as some of these charts might look. There's simply not enough cold air associated with them. Don't mean to sound like a grinch, but that's just my honest opinion.

Stick with the weekly Met Office 10 day trend and you’ll seldom be disappointed. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

rain rain and more rain forecast for here, nothing nice and wintry about that, i think the snow we had here 3/4 weeks ago is as good as its going to get this winter, so time to look forward to the rest of winter and lockdowns and restrictions, lol 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

This is the first time I have really noticed the Global Warning affect on our weather. Even 20 years ago, not a chance that such a chart would only bring -3/-4 uppers for most. This would be -5 everywhere with -10 into Scotland.

 

ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

This is the first time I have really noticed the Global Warning affect on our weather. Even 20 years ago, not a chance that such a chart would only bring -3/-4 uppers for most. This would be -5 everywhere with -10 into Scotland.

 

ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

 

I'm not so sure about that..

If you follow the streamlines back, they are simply not in a favourable position to drag in much colder air. 

It would only need minor changes and it would be a different story.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Somehow - I don't think the Met Office is having any of this.

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
4 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Stick with the weekly Met Office 10 day trend and you’ll seldom be disappointed. 

 

Basically we are wasting our time?!

I'm fast approaching that point :santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
18 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Basically we are wasting our time?!

I'm fast approaching that point :santa-emoji:

Roughly 5-10% of the posts are worth reading. Sort the chaff from the wheat and it's very informative.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Many People saying we are wasting our time, I don't think so it certainly isn't going to be Snowy tommorrow but we don't need that. What we want is a Snowy Christmas but we'll settle for any Snow so if we look at the average of what is happening on the Charts we can see that there is Certainly Signs of a 2010 with Cold Flowing from Greenland and A Negative AO is possible. If you are Wondering what that is and what it Can Mean then. 

It is WHEN Temperatures almost Swap between  The Arctic and the Rest Of The Northern Hemisphere. 

This would mean that with Greenland High blocking a rather flimsy Greenland High would end up staying there for a long time not Pushing Through and we would end up with a Cold and Wintery few Months. 

A slight Negative such as what we ARE SEEING would end up with A MONTH of Snowy conditions with a flimsy LOW. 

Because OF THE GREENLAND LOW we see seeing the higher pressure GOING TO UP OVER THE EAST. 

1521617288_gensnh-0-1-192(1).thumb.png.fbb2d7e523ece654eefae3bb22a69db0.png

LOW ALMOST LEAKING DOWN high is pushing up bringing the LOWER PRESSURE DOWN. However we need A MUCH STRONGER HIGH TO BECOME NEGATIVE AO and so it will probably be LOW POSITIVE and we'll have ZONAL SNOW. 

gensnh-0-1-204.thumb.png.16c5b1b1ee7f6fb1a0451b6599076691.png

Of course towards the end the CHARTS Get less accurate BUT WE HAVE GOT GREENLAND HIGH'S ON IT. 

gensnh-0-1-276.thumb.png.a2275a6b68f9adf280bb5cbb692d9ed8.pnggensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.19e531b6659ca4c3cddeab117a72dc7e.png

CLOSER TO NOW WE HAVE Got SOME LOW POSITIVE AO TO LOOK FORWARD TO COULD BE A NEGATIVE AO BU5 CHARTS GO LESS WOOLY HATS AFTER WARDS. 

gensnh-0-1-132.thumb.png.f1a504711f35dd648b8db4176c84aebd.png

THANKS XANDER:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
On 04/12/2020 at 08:51, Turnedoutniceagain said:

The expectation, the constant model checking, the anticipation, the ramping, more expectation,.....*opens curtains*....., the reality of cold rain, the bitter recriminations in the Models thread......

 

Welcome to Netweather.

I'm afraid, this is what it's going to happen during this "cold spell"... 

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