Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[terrier]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

I don't think COBRA meetings get called for wet snow over the hills.

Ridiculous exaggerations from posters in here, as usual. There's nothing significantly snowy or cold for the majority of lowland UK in that model run, and it's academic at this range anyway. Nice synoptically, but talk of snowstorms is such nonsense. People never learn and set themselves up for a fall when future model updates show less wintry potential. 

Thankyou finally at least someone can see that they is far too much hope casting going on in this thread at moment. When will people learn this is what causes the toys been thrown out the pram when it all goes the shape of the pear. Yes the gfs & ecm show something abit more seasonal over Xmas with some frost and a few wintry flurries over the highest ground. But all this talk of snowy winter wonderland is wide of the mark for vast swathes of the U.K. Just look at the met they certainly aren’t thinking we are heading for the next 1963 winter style symbiotics. So I’d be very cautious at the moment because snowmagedon it is not. And people are just once again setting themselves up for huge disappointment 

[Penrith Snow]

25 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I think most people on here know, the second part of any GFS/ECM run isn't to be taken so literally otherwise the word CAVEAT would be used in every sentence. People are allowed to get carried away and have a bit of fun with the second half of a run, it's part of the enjoyment (for most anyway).

Absolutely! Hope even if its misplaced is all we have in this crud of a year, let the lads have some fun  

FWIW I am not convinced about any proper cold post Christmas as their is little ensemble support but hey its fun watching the models without the usual Christmas Bartlett.

Andy

[Bartlett High]

4 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Absolutely! Hope even if its misplaced is all we have in this crud of a year, let the lads have some fun  

FWIW I am not convinced about any proper cold post Christmas as their is little ensemble support but hey its fun watching the models without the usual Christmas Bartlett.

Andy

I'm still here!!

[pureasthedriven]

30 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I think most people on here know, the second part of any GFS/ECM run isn't to be taken so literally otherwise the word CAVEAT would be used in every sentence. People are allowed to get carried away and have a bit of fun with the second half of a run, it's part of the enjoyment (for most anyway).

Quite - why the need to tell grown adults ‘not to get too excited’ as if you’re the parent of a six year old on Christmas Eve explaining that Santa may or not bring them their bike. I really don’t need to be told ‘not to get my hopes up’. I’m 49!!

[Day_9]

1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

Can you not call yourself Day 9?

Will do!!

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t worry too much. Those clusters change as often as the Covid Tiers. 

I live in Manchester, they don’t!!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

This is the big problem though...its been so long since we last experienced proper cold,some just won't have it..Even if it comes up and bites em on the ar@e they still won't be convinced. Even if we had cross model agreement for a significant cold snap starting tomorrow,some would still stay...ill believe it when I see it...we have to start somewhere.

 

 

 

Actually just like the last cold snap, just gone, some will still be looking in FL for cold, when it's already snowing.

[Bobafet]

47 minutes ago, terrier said:

Thankyou finally at least someone can see that they is far too much hope casting going on in this thread at moment. When will people learn this is what causes the toys been thrown out the pram when it all goes the shape of the pear. Yes the gfs & ecm show something abit more seasonal over Xmas with some frost and a few wintry flurries over the highest ground. But all this talk of snowy winter wonderland is wide of the mark for vast swathes of the U.K. Just look at the met they certainly aren’t thinking we are heading for the next 1963 winter style symbiotics. So I’d be very cautious at the moment because snowmagedon it is not. And people are just once again setting themselves up for huge disappointment 

Yes you are probably right that it will be a disappointment!  But what is wrong with us hoping?  It has been an awful year for many of us and to see charts like we are currently seeing gives us a bit of chance to dream!! 
 

Some in here can’t wait for things to go wrong just so they can say  I told you so!  Nothing wrong with people getting excited, good grief this is our hobby why shouldn’t we!

 

These are some of the best chances we have had for a cold spell developing for a few winters, and hopefully with the Strat playing ball for January - plenty for us to be excited about.  
 

Merry Christmas to all.

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Bobafet
Gramma

[BarometerCat]

MInor ramp,  it's trending colder on 6z ensembles.  It has been a consistent signal? Below is IMBY. Happy.

Whilst not super cold, it is a lot better a lot of recent winters.  Here's hoping this trend continues.   I'm not going to call a Snowy nirvana,  but after this year its nice to actually hope and have a bit of laugh ramping up.  its better not to take this too seriously...

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, B-C said:

MInor ramp,  it's trending colder on 6z ensembles.  It has been a consistent signal? Below is IMBY. Happy.

Whilst not super cold, it is a lot better a lot of recent winters.  Here's hoping this trend continues.   I'm not going to call a Snowy nirvana,  but after this year its nice to actually hope and have a bit of laugh ramping up.  its better not to take this too seriously...

That looks good actually considering the models we're doing the opposite. 

[BarometerCat]

8 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

That looks good actually considering the models we're doing the opposite. 

They're not...take another peek at the todays GFS 6Z...  Still not into a reliable timeframe so usual caveats and pinches of salt.

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, B-C said:

They're not...take another peek at the todays GFS 6Z...  Still not into a reliable timeframe so usual caveats and pinches of salt.

Sorry last i looked was the 00z

[johnholmes]

May I be forgiven just once in 15 years?

If its snow you want, watch this, or go on to the N America link

 

[johnholmes]

sorry not right to post that on here but well worth, for sno fans to have a look at this link

I have seen deep snow falls in the Jungfrau region but only one with this depth of snow in the time scale!

[Simon M]

It's vile out there at the moment.  Temps pushing 12C, strong wind, damp, humid with heavy rain and very, very dull.  This is my worst kind of winter weather.

 

But, as Darren Bett would (maybe) say: "at least it's moild!"  

 

Roll on the cool(ish) weather next week.

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Day_9 said:

Will do!!

Lol, thanks!

[BarometerCat]

A wee bit of a change on the Meto outlook, even into January. Plenty to be positive about!  less mild, expected to be colder into Jan (did I read that right)

 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

I see all the excited posts in the model forum, but nowhere is that reflected in any forecasts. I just see at best a couple of days with max of 3 or 4c for Glasgow. Hardly bitterly cold, our ave Dec high is 6c. Where is this optimism coming from?

[Ventnor Viking]

If the current models run were to verify, which is highly unlikely, then  central southern England would miss out on all of the action, again! I prefer a good easterly for the UK rather than coastal snow with a northerly. 

[AdrianHull]

Seems to be a lot of negativity towards the positive people who dream of Narnia type weather in the very far reaches of FL in the model feed tonight. 

I say let people dream. If we constantly.have to pick the negatives and pull people for being positive what's even the point of extended charts. 

I personally don't think it will verify but let people dream and hope without shooting them down like a couple of posters are doing tonight.

[Polaris]

The excitement over on the MOD thread vs the Prozac prior 24hrs ago is enough to make any sane person want to vomit. 
 

What on Earth are these poor souls going to do when it all back tracks to flatter pattern (because let’s me honest, it nearly always does) 

Oh yeah.... post a 10 day chart 

[Stationary Front]

What if it does backtrack what if it doesn’t? Why do people care? Who is really going to be disappointed? I bet it the ones who are worried about others being disappointed- why the constant hang up about people being potentially disappointed?? 

[Polaris]

6 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:

Seems to be a lot of negativity towards the positive people who dream of Narnia type weather in the very far reaches of FL in the model feed tonight. 

I say let people dream. If we constantly.have to pick the negatives and pull people for being positive what's even the point of extended charts. 

I personally don't think it will verify but let people dream and hope without shooting them down like a couple of posters are doing tonight.

Most of us are not here to dream though 

The constant contractions on the MOD threat is not dreaming, it’s draining! 

[Polaris]

2 minutes ago, Stationary Front said:

What if it does backtrack what if it doesn’t? Why do people care? Who is really going to be disappointed? I bet it the ones who are worried about others being disappointed- why the constant hang up about people being potentially disappointed?? 

Because many of us come on here to learn and read credible posts. 
the constant dramatic up and downs of the forum is exhausting 

I couldn’t care less about disappointment with others, I just want facts instead of pages of massive histeria 

[Skullzrulerz]

13 minutes ago, Polaris said:

The excitement over on the MOD thread vs the Prozac prior 24hrs ago is enough to make any sane person want to vomit. 
 

What on Earth are these poor souls going to do when it all back tracks to flatter pattern (because let’s me honest, it nearly always does) 

Oh yeah.... post a 10 day chart 

That nearly split out my drink in laughter