Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[markyo]

Record snowfall in Japan - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Heavy snow has been falling across Japan and several snowfall records have been broken including Fujiwara which saw 176cm of snow in 48 hours.

One can only dream of opening the curtains this winter to that!

[Big Dave]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Record snowfall in Japan - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Heavy snow has been falling across Japan and several snowfall records have been broken including Fujiwara which saw 176cm of snow in 48 hours.

One can only dream of opening the curtains this winter to that!

Interesting that the previous record was from 2010!  It smashed that record. 

Maybe we can smash our 2010 winter too. 

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Big Dave said:

Interesting that the previous record was from 2010!  It smashed that record. 

Maybe we can smash our 2010 winter too. 

you really think tht's gonna happen, us done South aren't gonna see much good unless we lose the Gulf.

[Simon M]

I've just noticed the Met Office's forecast temperatures have come down a couple of degrees since earlier in the net few days.  This morning they were forecasting temps around 8-9C, now temps could be at 6C by the 23rd.  Not a huge drop but it's definitely colder, and the trend is down.

[Big Dave]

53 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

you really think tht's gonna happen, us done South aren't gonna see much good unless we lose the Gulf.

Nobody knows and no model has a clue.  This is just sport.

[Sceptical]

1 hour ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

you really think tht's gonna happen, us done South aren't gonna see much good unless we lose the Gulf.

Its possible that every future UK winter could rival 2010. However, the Met Office believe such a winter, might only happen once every 40 years.

Edited December 17, 2020 by Sceptical

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Winter? wondering what temps tomorrow's tropical southerly will bring? bound to be some record somewhere

[lassie23]

BBC going for a bit colder over Crudmas and that's it

Edited December 17, 2020 by lassie23

[Simon M]

The netweather forecast headline at the bottom of the page sums it up sadly - there is no uncertainty abut the mild weather to come, but cold?  That's just hints at the moment, hints that are probably not going to come off.

 

I hope I'm wrong but my gut tells me it'll be unsettled, wet and probably very windy this Christmas, with whatever Atlantic ridging showing at the moment flattening out, and then back to default, putrid mild southwesterlies by New Year.

Edited December 17, 2020 by Simon M

[kingdogleash]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Beacuse for some  they seem to concentrate more on ten day charts that RARELY verify then the short term charts where their is still huge uncertainty.Always been like this in the forum.Plus usual overeaction to any run that doesnt show bitter cold at the end .

That's the fun of it, why else would people post on here? Why does it aggravate some members so much? It's fun, and the clue is in the thread title!

[cheshire snow]

As most wait to see our first snow picture from the NYC snow storm.

C.S

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

As most wait to see our first snow picture from the NYC snow storm.

C.S

Videos are more fun than pictures, and if they use horror headlines, even better

 

[mountain shadow]

Bloody Hell!!!

I'll not get back to sleep now!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

The other GFS ENS aren’t as extreme as the Op and control , but with the resolutions of the 2 showing the Greeny block being similar I take a little crumb of comfort - but we need ECM support for sure, without it I fear a reset on the next run!!

Remember, if this goes tits up it might just be the starter before the potential SSW

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

Haha no worries! If this kind of model run appears with 72 hours to go this place will be chaos and we'll all be posting and replying in a febrile state!

Fingers crossed, although John Holmes may need to remind us that we should be careful what we wish for. A 1947 or 1962 would be a sucker punch for a lot of people after this year. Not for most of us on Net weather model output discussion though 

If the myth is true, we get the weather America had 10 days before, so... Blizzard-on!

[BARRY]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

If the myth is true, we get the weather America had 10 days before, so... Blizzard-on!

It would sum up this year, and lead to chaos around the country

[Glaswegianblizzard]

9 hours ago, Johnp said:

By the end of the run, all of the UK is buried in snow, apart from south of

ThE m4 CoRridOr! 

Wont make the news then.........

[TSNWK]

Morning,

Quiet Simply not feeling the love this morning.

GFS has every winter spat our some stonking runs in the Med to Longer range, only once has it been really right in my 10 years here and that was Spring 2018. ICON has mixed reviews for performance and is not one of big 3, UKM simply does not out far enough yet and ECM was relatively blend mid term with any potential at the end and speculatation on what might happen beyond day 10.

So the point is what I / we need to see early doors to help instill confidence and substance that what we are seeing longer term and on ICON has legs / solid foundations.

 

Cheers

[snowblizzard]

31 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Morning,

Quiet Simply not feeling the love this morning.

GFS has every winter spat our some stonking runs in the Med to Longer range, only once has it been really right in my 10 years here and that was Spring 2018. ICON has mixed reviews for performance and is not one of big 3, UKM simply does not out far enough yet and ECM was relatively blend mid term with any potential at the end and speculatation on what might happen beyond day 10.

So the point is what I / we need to see early doors to help instill confidence and substance that what we are seeing longer term and on ICON has legs / solid foundations.

 

Cheers

I've been feeling the same for the last 3-4 winter seasons!

But, I still get 'sucked-in' and get overly excited about what we sometimes view on extended model outputs (FI) and whether it will actually materialize.

It's a game really isn't it?

Even when, like Feb/Mar 2018, the exciting stuff comes well within the reliable range I still expect it to go pear shaped!

I'm totally hooked on model watching and really appreciate the fantastic input from the more knowledgeable members on the forum!

I've learned so much from this forum about meteorology and how the atmosphere behaves over the last 12+ years.

Thanks everyone.

Edited December 18, 2020 by snowblizzard

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

I've been feeling the same for the last 3-4 winter seasons!

But, I still get 'sucked-in' and get overly excited about what we sometimes view on extended model outputs (FI) and whether it will actually materialize.

It's a game really isn't it?

Even when, like Feb/Mar 2018, the exciting stuff comes well within the reliable range I still expect it to go pear shaped!

I'm totally hooked on model watching and really appreciate the fantastic input from the more knowledgeable members on the forum!

I've learned so much from this forum about meteorology and how the atmosphere behaves over the last 12+ years.

Thanks everyone.

Agree 100% an example being I went to bad last night on that stonking 18Z - leaving the thread open on my IPAD so that when I woke I could quickly get a sense on the overnights by the number of new posts - it was 34, which I knew was a good sign ( so many times I've the same to be great a one or two overnight posts )

It is a game and yes I too have learned a great deal since I joined in the height of 2010  but I joined a little too late to see the build and that is what I want now I guess 

[Weather-history]

[BarometerCat]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

 Silly chart of the day - here is my submission. rank out of 10? 

Edited December 18, 2020 by B-C

[JoeShmoe]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

we do all know there is next to no chance of that coming off though right ? I can't do it to myself ...

[Seasonal Trim]

Still not convinced yet. Once we start seeing these charts within 144 I'll start to get excited.

Mind you, I won't be happy until we have a snow that's over my head. That's got to happen once in my life...... hasn't it?

[Day 10]

51 minutes ago, Day_10 said:

COBRA charts

Can you not call yourself Day 9?