Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
12 minutes ago, al78 said:

Here are timeseries of the CET for December January and February 1900-2020 (2019 for December). There have been small upward trends in all winter months, but note the interannual variability is an order of magnitude larger, so it would be premature to claim the UK can't get severe cold periods in winter any more or in the future.

 

 

winterCET.png

Nice find, thanks. Illustrates the warming quite nicely

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
38 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

I'm not debating that. My original point was that basing expectations on an exceptional series of childhood Winters, which you disputed as being not exceptional temperature-wise, is a little unrealistic; I then provided evidence against your dispute.

You can easily find the data you're looking for here:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

This if for central England only; if you want nationwide data you'll have to look elsewhere. No doubt you'll see that the Winter months have warmed (again, not what I refuted). There's even a thread for this topic here:

 

And my point was that it was your assertion that I'm basing winters on childhood memories (how 1987,-88, 1988-89, 1989-90 fits in with your assertion I'm not sure) is just incorrect. My beef is not necessarily with warm winters but the regularity of them. If this turns out to be ANOTHER warmer than average winter but it was within a context of a cycle of more variable winters (some cold, some average, some mild) I wouldn't be so worried. And crap, warm winters are getting more regular whether we like it or not

What I'm saying is that expecting more than 1 snow day since March 2018 (and hardly any from Dec 2013- Feb 2017 either) is not a high expectation and December 2020 looks as though it's going to be another winter month that just passes us by. You're assuming that just because I was a kid during some good winters is that what I expect all the time. It isn't. But you seem to be saying that the fact that a place in lowland Southern UK has only seen one snow day (and that really was pitiful and didn't even settle and was gone by the next morning) in almost 3 years is also normal. It really isn't in the context of our winter climate in decades past (with some exceptions in the past (the 70s especially) admittedly)

Edited by LRD
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

 

The 'cold' spell we have just had

We’ve just had a cold spell? I must’ve missed it.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
22 minutes ago, LRD said:

And my point was that it was your assertion that I'm basing winters on childhood memories (how 1987,-88, 1988-89, 1989-90 fits in with your assertion I'm not sure) is just incorrect. My beef is not necessarily with warm winters but the regularity of them. If this turns out to be ANOTHER warmer than average winter but it was within a context of a cycle of more variable winters (some cold, some average, some mild) I wouldn't be so worried. And crap, warm winters are getting more regular whether we like it or not

What I'm saying is that expecting more than 1 snow day since March 2018 (and hardly any from Dec 2013- Feb 2017 either) is not a high expectation and December 2020 looks as though it's going to be another winter month that just passes us by. You're assuming that just because I was a kid during some good winters is that what I expect all the time. It isn't. But you seem to be saying that the fact that a place in lowland Southern UK has only seen one snow day (and that really was pitiful and didn't even settle and was gone by the next morning) in almost 3 years is also normal. It really isn't in the context of our winter climate in decades past (with some exceptions in the past (the 70s especially) admittedly)

I agree with you on almost everything you've said. I disputed a different point you made about the 80s being "not that special in the context of the entire century", which one can easily argue is not true.

Anyway, hopefully the links I provided you with regarding warming were useful.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

  

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.1c to the 10th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 3.9c on the 8th & 9th

For those wondering if we have had a cold spell or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
6 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Show me how it’s been proven wrong? And no are you stupid? The solar cycles are getting less and less., if you refer to the charts of the solar every 10 years. It’s the lowest it’s been since Maunder Minimum in 1600s! River Thames froze over during this period. We’ll see who’s right in 10 years  

Here's something you might read too. 

default-1464366063-1300-the-mini-ice-age
WWW.IFLSCIENCE.COM

This month there’s been a hoopla about a mini ice age, and unfortunately it tells us more about failures of science communication than the climate.

Zarkhova, the primary source for the Grand Solar Minimum touted by the media, never actually suggested this in the first place. In fact it was only after the media hopped on her research and hyped the story suggesting connection to climate change and the Maunder minimum that Zarkhova even thought to consider a link there.

Scientific peer review has offered no such outcome that I've seen but I'd welcome direction to any if it's there.  I'd prefer to choose the scientific community over elements of the media, or other websites/individuals that have little or no recognisable qualification that gives them credibility.  They simply relay these stories - it makes fun reading and generates hits. 

I'm open to research that provides credible backup to a position - I've not found any yet to support the view you've presented.

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
36 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

The solar cycles are getting less and less.

And the temperature's going up and up.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Anything model related going on??

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, fromey said:

Anything model related going on??

Indeed there is...it's in the model thread!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Right, shall we get this away from climate change denial and back onto winter 2020/21? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Just now, General Cluster said:

Indeed there is...it's in the model thread!

I have just realised I’m not on that page!!! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I totally forgotten what is a cold spell again ?

It is that period when contributors on weather forums across the net start having perpetual orgasms over the GFS forecasts, and when people (usually living in the north of England/Scotland) falsely claim the south of England grinds to a halt from an inch of snow.

Edited by al78
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
16 minutes ago, al78 said:

It is that period when contributors on weather forums across the net start having perpetual orgasms over the GFS forecasts, and when people (usually living in the north of England/Scotland) falsely claim the south of England grinds to a halt from an inch of snow.

Now that you say that I do remember somewhat 

Also includes getting excited over two week wintery charts and includes denial and a hangover the next day 

Hence you don't see some members here when it's no the output they want 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

Oh, looks like all is forgiven and winter is back (according to GFS 12z and gin)❄️

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
3 hours ago, fromey said:

So boys and girls get your coats, winter is over !! 

That is simply not true...it should be shorts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
3 hours ago, MP-R said:

We’ve just had a cold spell? I must’ve missed it.

We had a bit of snow for about an hour on one day, probably counts as a cold spell these days.

Call me crazy but I hope we get another month like December 2015, minus the flooding. If it’s not going to snow then I’d rather it be 10-15C and somewhat pleasant as opposed to the current damp foggy 5-7C.

Edited by cheese
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
31 minutes ago, cheese said:

We had a bit of snow for about an hour on one day, probably counts as a cold spell these days.

Call me crazy but I hope we get another month like December 2015, minus the flooding. If it’s not going to snow then I’d rather it be 10-15C and somewhat pleasant as opposed to the current damp foggy 5-7C.

not been on for a bit? actually I agree with this

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn

Felt so mild here today. The usual sodden wet ground underfoot whilst dog walking. 
 

Not Christmassy at all 

Hopefully the Day 10 charts (Cold) Start showing their face again, so the MOD thread cheers up until Day 7 when it all falls apart, then repeats a cold day 10 chart the following day 

Rinse and repeat
 

Boom it’s April 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not been on for a bit? actually I agree with this

Yeah, these days I’m probably more active in the summer. At least we still get heat and thunderstorms May-Sept. Winter is dull.

Edited by cheese
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
9 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yeah, these days I’m probably more active in the summer. At least we still get heat and thunderstorms May-Sept. Winter is dull.

We still get heat in summer here but without the thunderstorms, and winter is still duller than ever. 12c today actually felt warm ish, what a boring climate need some extremes to keep interested!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...