Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Weather-history]

Merry Christmas

[JoeShmoe]

Let’s be honest, it’s wet and windy for the next ten days and whilst I’m sure there are those who can find Christmas cheer in T+240 charts that change twice daily i think the trend is fairly obvious. I’ll check in again next week to see if anything has changed in the reliable 

[Weather-history]

59 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Winter hasnt yet begun its still astronomical Autumn. True Winter begins on 21st December and judging by a lot of the comments in model thread you'd think Winter ends at Xmas. Its sad we might not get a dumping of snow but lets look forward to record breaking warmth for December.... 20C? 30C? At least days might be warmer than days during the rotten mid-june that has just passed.  

I assume you are taking the mick? 

 

[KTtom]

Ive got to say, it does make me laugh how the 'big hitters' suddenly appear on the other thread once the gfs throws an extreme cold chart up at 276 hours, they post the chart with a one liner, get 45 likes then dissapear....bet you dont see any of them this morning!

[swfc]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I think its more do with the warming planet ...

 

It's a joke nw, remember them I'd find a new hobby mate think it's pushing you to edge this hunt for cold. It's only weather mate, yes!!!

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, swfc said:

It's a joke nw, remember them I'd find a new hobby mate think it's pushing you to edge this hunt for cold. It's only weather mate, yes!!!

Righto.

 

[DanDorsetUK]

Here we go again it's the same every single 0z run. Whether its lack of data for that particular run or whether its programmed in to perform a mini reset to default is anyone's guess but I NEVER take morning runs seriously and they very rarely come off. Just stick to the 12z it's the most reliable run. The theme has not changed and background signals do not just disappear based on morning runs. So many contradictory posts appear and it gets very tiresome! People saying its going to rain for the next 10 days and then thow out what a day 10 chart looked like only a few hours earlier is the most pathetic thing I'll ever read. Either tonight or tomorrow it will all look completly different again anyway. Madness.

The 18z is known as the pub the run, the morning runs are pretty much the hangover run, and the 12z usually the sober run. They are clearly programmed to perform that way, for what reason who knows, but there is quite clearly an algorithm to cause it to happen. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Rapodo

[Iceaxecrampon]

Bit Breezy for Sleigh

[knocker]

I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

[Matty88]

0z run ... oh deary deary me, yet another warm tumble dryer run! Withdraw any bets for a white xmas - too risky!!!! 

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, Matty88 said:

0z run ... oh deary deary me, yet another warm tumble dryer run! Withdraw any bets for a white xmas - too risky!!!! 

You would have a better chance of winning the lottery 

I did post a comment in that thread this morning regarding the models but strangely it disappeared like the hangover runs with cold overnight 

Good to see you back @knocker would be great to see some balanced commentary 

[warrenb]

Now here is a theory and it might be (and probably is) complete codswallop but here goes.

 

I believe in winters we are going to see less of the PV influencing the weather

The PV exists because it sits above a pool of very cold air which is sinking, think of taking the plug out of the bath and the water going down the hole, it creates a whirlpool and the PV is basically an atmospheric version of that.

Now add to the mix that the polars regions due to Climate Change are around 7-8c above average this year, as is Greenland (When cold this is why the PV often sits over Greenland), so there is less forcing or downwelling of air over the poleI will speak to DP now so less force creating the whirlpool. Hence we have a weak and disorganised PV. I believe this will become a feature of winter going forward because of said climate change. The Pole heats faster basically because there is no land mass, just ocean.

 

Now the bad news for us is that High pressure likes cold pools and when the PV is disorganised this allows the cold air to fall into the mid latitudes, and where there is a landmass it will cool more and more, and produce a high pressure cell. So the high pressure over Europe is displaced south as the cold air is leaking further south due to lack of PV. The bad news for us is that this would mean that we would have a semi permanent high over central Europe in winter, with strong temperature contrast between land and sea (remember the seas are warming), low pressures will dominate the Atlantic and Pacific basins.

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by warrenb

[BarometerCat]

I cannot see where the mild trends are?  Is it just reaction to bad runs based on past winters?  The overall trend is not looking bad, no low after low cannon balls crossing the uk like some certain previous winters (that some folks are still in therapy over).  Based on trends wouldn't it be fair to say things could go any where yet?  Maybe a bit meh... It's hardly looking super mild or super cold right now is it??

[Frost HoIIow]

6 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Winter hasnt yet begun its still astronomical Autumn. True Winter begins on 21st December and judging by a lot of the comments in model thread you'd think Winter ends at Xmas. Its sad we might not get a dumping of snow but lets look forward to record breaking warmth for December.... 20C? 30C? At least days might be warmer than days during the rotten mid-june that has just passed.  

Haha I doubt it.....20C is really pushing it but 30C is impossible in December in this country even in a warming climate. This far north the sun is too weak in December. A couple of Winters ago we had that freak warm spell right at the end of February 2019 and we got close to 20C then & some areas did breach 20C but that's probably the earliest opportunity for it to happen.

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[Valleyboy]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry old bean, i think this is nonsense...

By using the anomaly charts you CAN pick up on the most likely pattern of ridging and troughing plus the mean upper flow out to 14 days.

I use this method daily, and whilst the detail may need adjusting (especially in very mobile patterns) the general pattern is there. Its possible to pick up settled spells ten days in advance, and indeed the great heatwave of August 2019 bank holiday was identified 12 days in advance.
The trick is not to take any one model run at face value, but to spot the trend, the anomalies do that which means you can hang the nearest operational run on that.

Even without using the anomaly charts, the more experienced are skilled at spotting emerging patterns...

Your comment " These super computer generated models are no more accurate than a 5 year old scribbling on paper. " is one you ought to remove, as its ridiculous

Nope, I stand by my comments, as they are true.  I could give examples of forecasts back in the 80’s 7 days out that were more accurate than anything I’ve seen today.  You shouldn’t be calling my comments ridiculous and asking me to remove them, as it’s just my view, older bean!

[DanDorsetUK]

Let's admit it, we all come here every year hoping to see the day after tomorrow type scenario unfold and get let down every year! We may have to start lowering our expectations maybe the handbags at dawn could become a thing of the past then! Think these films have got alot to answer for myself

Maybe they will remake the film for the global warming climate change generation in a few years.

Anyway time for a 5 day break from model viewing and see how much has changed in that time. 

[LRD]

10 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

Nope, I stand by my comments, as they are true.  I could give examples of forecasts back in the 80’s 7 days out that were more accurate than anything I’ve seen today.  You shouldn’t be calling my comments ridiculous and asking me to remove them, as it’s just my view, older bean!

Go on then. I'm all ears

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

Nope, I stand by my comments, as they are true.  I could give examples of forecasts back in the 80’s 7 days out that were more accurate than anything I’ve seen today.  You shouldn’t be calling my comments ridiculous and asking me to remove them, as it’s just my view, older bean!

Not true I'm afraid. Much the same as everyone remembers summers to be better when they were younger etc. Forecasting skill and accuracy is so much better than the 1980's it's crazy. 

I quote:

'Weather forecasts from leading numerical weather prediction centers such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) have also been improving rapidly: A modern 5-day forecast is as accurate as a 1-day forecast was in 1980, and useful forecasts now reach 9 to 10 days into the future (1). Predictions have improved for a wide range of hazardous weather conditions, including hurricanes, blizzards, flash floods, hail, and tornadoes, with skill emerging in predictions of seasonal conditions.'
 

Advances in weather prediction

SCIENCE.SCIENCEMAG.ORG

---

Weather forecasting provides numerous societal benefits, from extreme weather warnings to agricultural planning. In recent decades, advances in forecasting have been rapid, arising from improved observations...

You saying it's true, and actual facts are completely the opposite. All of these met organisations have decades of data to back the above statement up.

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, warrenb said:

Now here is a theory and it might be (and probably is) complete codswallop but here goes.

 

I believe in winters we are going to see less of the PV influencing the weather

The PV exists because it sits above a pool of very cold air which is sinking, think of taking the plug out of the bath and the water going down the hole, it creates a whirlpool and the PV is basically an atmospheric version of that.

Now add to the mix that the polars regions due to Climate Change are around 7-8c above average this year, as is Greenland (When cold this is why the PV often sits over Greenland), so there is less forcing or downwelling of air over the poleI will speak to DP now so less force creating the whirlpool. Hence we have a weak and disorganised PV. I believe this will become a feature of winter going forward because of said climate change. The Pole heats faster basically because there is no land mass, just ocean.

 

Now the bad news for us is that High pressure likes cold pools and when the PV is disorganised this allows the cold air to fall into the mid latitudes, and where there is a landmass it will cool more and more, and produce a high pressure cell. So the high pressure over Europe is displaced south as the cold air is leaking further south due to lack of PV. The bad news for us is that this would mean that we would have a semi permanent high over central Europe in winter, with strong temperature contrast between land and sea (remember the seas are warming), low pressures will dominate the Atlantic and Pacific basins.

 

This is interesting, but I think it depends on the coupling between the tropospheric and stratospheric vortices. We may actually see the latter become more violent (since the stratosphere is cooling). How the two vortices then couple (or don't couple) is key.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Relativistic

[Relativistic]

Mods please delete.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Relativistic

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, warrenb said:

The Pole heats faster basically because there is no land mass, just ocean

We must have gone to radically different schools then?

[warrenb]

11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

We must have gone to radically different schools then?

There is no land mass under the Arctic Ocean, if the ice cap melted it is open ocean.

[Bradowl]

6 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

Let’s be honest, it’s wet and windy for the next ten days and whilst I’m sure there are those who can find Christmas cheer in T+240 charts that change twice daily i think the trend is fairly obvious. I’ll check in again next week to see if anything has changed in the reliable 

Its not even wet and windy today  so I can't see  how we can take any charts over a week away seriously that's showing wet and windy. 

Even when everything is coming from West we get odd days of dry weather, especially in South and East. 

On whether we're going to have anything wintry over Christmas, we should have a better idea towards end of next week, my guess is we won't, nothing to do with what charts are showing, just that we rarely get a White Christmas, a White New Year as been more common in my long lifetime. 

 

Only thing certain is that it will get dark at night. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Bradowl

[Mapantz]

Just now, warrenb said:

There is no land mass under the Arctic Ocean, if the ice cap melted it is open ocean.

That's not what I am disputing.

Oceans don't warm faster than land.

[warrenb]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

That's not what I am disputing.

Oceans don't warm faster than land.

They do on a climatic scale, not day to day.