Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Bradley in Kent]

17 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

What people don’t seem to understand is. America, Canada and all other places get heavy snow every winter. Even Australia had snow this season to lower levels. So if it’s global warming why is not affecting these countries? Just makes me laugh how everyone says it’s “climate change” when we get loads abnormal amounts of snow, and then say  it’s “climate change” when we get zero snow. What is it gonna be?  It’s called WEATHER 

Good evening on this cold(ish) dreary day!

The likes of America, Canada and rest of Eurasia have their winter snow with temperatures way below freezing a lot of the time, so even in a warmer world they'll still get snow, just not as cold but still cold enough. Say for example, if you raise the average winter temperature say 3C, a place like the UK which typically has snowy days around 0C will no longer see snow. Somewhere like Canada however will get away with it, as their snowy days are often below -3C so a 3C rise, whilst noticeable, will still result in snow falling and lying.  Obviously when talking averages and figures it doesn't quite work like that what with variability, but I trust you get my drift!

Even if the planets' climate stayed the same, it would still be a massive task to get a handle on the complex system of weather! I'll leave that there as there is a Climate Change thread (which I'll look at), but following the trend of UK winters I'm keen to make the most of any snow we do get!

[cheeky_monkey]

36 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

What people don’t seem to understand is. America, Canada and all other places get heavy snow every winter. Even Australia had snow this season to lower levels. So if it’s global warming why is not affecting these countries? Just makes me laugh how everyone says it’s “climate change” when we get loads abnormal amounts of snow, and then say  it’s “climate change” when we get zero snow. What is it gonna be?  It’s called WEATHER 

What you need to understand is that you cant compare North America to Europe in terms of weather patterns and climate..NA will always get far more snow and cold than Europe,  because of its geography it is less effected by climate change when it comes to snow due to fact snow events are far from marginal, plus the fact the Rockies are there it is far less effected by maritime air esp in winter than Europe..having said that i do believe climate is very much cyclical in nature and cold winters and snow in southern England will not be a thing of the past by 2040

[Summer Sun]

The met office has extended the level 2 warning for severe cold weather until 9am Thursday and added East Midlands, East of England and South East England excluding London
 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

[dragan]

gfs 12z scenario could be a real mild affair, IF heights over Europe rise much more, this is all getting a bit

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The met office has extended the level 2 warning for severe cold weather until 9am Thursday and added East Midlands, East of England and South East England excluding London
 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

Baffled by the phrase severe cold?? its no colder than it is here right now and we are in an mild spell of weather..surely it should say it looks a bit chilly out ?

[alexisj9]

I'm not one hundred percent sure the title of the new mod thread is correct, I guess we'll find out soon, one way or the other.

[BarometerCat]

Hello! Looking at the spread of the gfs ensembles (as an example) after the 11th , how confident is anyone declaring mild temps? Same for v cold? Will be interesting seeing whatever evolves though.

[mathematician]

4 hours ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

What people don’t seem to understand is. America, Canada and all other places get heavy snow every winter. Even Australia had snow this season to lower levels. So if it’s global warming why is not affecting these countries? Just makes me laugh how everyone says it’s “climate change” when we get loads abnormal amounts of snow, and then say  it’s “climate change” when we get zero snow. What is it gonna be?  It’s called WEATHER 

What YOU don't understand it's actually very simple. 

If an area has an average temperature in winter of, say, -10 and due to the global warming there's a 3° increase you get to -7, still enough to snow. 

 

In the uk, and in similar countries /areas, you, go from 0 to 3°, hence not cold enough to snow anymore. 

 

What's so difficult to understand honestly? 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, mathematician said:

What YOU don't understand it's actually very simple. 

If an area has an average temperature in winter of, say, -10 and due to the global warming there's a 3° increase you get to -7, still enough to snow. 

 

In the uk, and in similar countries /areas, you, go from 0 to 3°, hence not cold enough to snow anymore. 

 

What's so difficult to understand honestly? 

But we don’t live in a world of averages ....we have extremes which generates averages .... We will still get snow ....

just not as often apparently ....

mind you, this isn’t model related ! 

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

Hello! Looking at the spread of the gfs ensembles (as an example) after the 11th , how confident is anyone declaring mild temps? Same for v cold? Will be interesting seeing whatever evolves though.

Yes and any drop to slightly or moderately colder would indicate a tendency to cold. Ie going against the normal west to east weather biase we have in the UK 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

But we don’t live in a world of averages ....we have extremes which generates averages .... We will still get snow ....

just not as often apparently ....

mind you, this isn’t model related ! 

It's the moans and ramps section  blue

[mathematician]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But we don’t live in a world of averages ....we have extremes which generates averages .... We will still get snow ....

just not as often apparently ....

mind you, this isn’t model related ! 

Of course I was over simplifying, but if the average temperature goes up even the "extremes" won't be as extreme anymore, and in this case, barring the odd one, not extreme enough to produce snow 

Edited December 7, 2020 by mathematician

[swfc]

1 minute ago, mathematician said:

Of course I was over simplifying, but if the average temperature goes up even the "extremes" won't be as extreme as anymore, and in this case, barring the odd one, not extreme enough to produce snow 

The extremes will increase at higher latitude due to the increase in moisture.

[Snow lover 2020]

1 hour ago, mathematician said:

What YOU don't understand it's actually very simple. 

If an area has an average temperature in winter of, say, -10 and due to the global warming there's a 3° increase you get to -7, still enough to snow. 

 

In the uk, and in similar countries /areas, you, go from 0 to 3°, hence not cold enough to snow anymore. 

 

What's so difficult to understand honestly? 

What are you on about? There has been snow up north and snow showers in the uk to lower levels in December.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Mapantz

[Snow lover 2020]

1 hour ago, mathematician said:

What YOU don't understand it's actually very simple. 

If an area has an average temperature in winter of, say, -10 and due to the global warming there's a 3° increase you get to -7, still enough to snow. 

 

In the uk, and in similar countries /areas, you, go from 0 to 3°, hence not cold enough to snow anymore. 

 

What's so difficult to understand honestly? 

Where’s the links please that show a 3 degree increase in uk or have you made that up? You’re acting like it hasn’t snowed at all in the uk for years the uk has never had consecutive  severe cold winters throughout the whole 3 months. It’s always been hit and miss.  Climate change, YES the climate does change with its natural cycles. Not man made thank you 

[Mapantz]

This isn't the thread for discussing CC. Paul has already posted a link higher up the page. Please use that to discuss CC (with some factual evidence, of course)

[SLEETY]

Looking increasingly likely that end of December beginning of January could be when the really severe cold hits Europe and the UK. 

Can't say we don't deserve it, it's been so rare to have any severe cold in January since the 80s,and last time the mean for the month was below 0c was January 79!! 

[DanDorsetUK]

Can clearly see peoples personality come through when they post. Some people clearly live life with a negative outlook half glass empty always looking at the negative while others look for the positive half glass full. Clear to see when they post.

[V for Very Cold]

All this model watching...it’s like waiting for Christmas ! 

[mathematician]

8 hours ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

What are you on about? There has been snow up north and snow showers in the uk to lower levels in December.

Honestly I am sick and tired of people cherry picking or failing to understand what 'average' means. 

It's like saying that is not true that the Swedish are, ON AVERAGE, taller than the Greeks because you know a Greek mate down the road who is 2 meter tall... Exactly like that.

 

But anyway I saw in the message you deleted that you think that Global Warming is a Hoax, so it's pointless discussing with you.

It's like discussing with someone that thinks that the earth is flat... keep living in your la la land.

[ArHu3]

Now that I have to cycle 16.5 km  or 30 min to work, I don't know if I l'm much of a coldie anymore, 0 C and 2 hours later and my feet still cold 

[qwertyK]

Very cold, no frost, but about 1/2C, extremely foggy. The weather channel and accuweather reckons it was just 1C yesterday here, not sure how accurate that is for past weather. If so, that would be the coldest maxima here since 2018

Edited December 8, 2020 by qwertyK

[Snow lover 2020]

Hard frost here in Dorset south 

[topo]

Not a single day of subzero temperature recorded so far in December and probably this will continue at least until 15th of December!!

After the warmest ever November we are heading to maybe one of the warmest December ever?

It's simply stunning.

[Daniel*]

On 06/12/2020 at 19:40, damianslaw said:

Thanks for that, a good read and backed up by good prognosis. 

Synergies with 2005-06, 2008-2009, 2012-13, and 2017-18 all four brought a cold first 10 days or so to December with the atlantic weak, at a time when it is typically at it's strongest, so agree must always take note when we have a weak atlantic now, suggests more bites at colder weather through the winter perhaps.

Just like the above 4 mentioned, could be quite episodic, colder weather mixed with milder weather at times, would be very happy with a 2008-2009, minus the very mild spell in the run up to christmas, could put up with a week or so of mild weather mid-month provided it went cold from 19th onwards, not too much to ask?

Thanks Damian.. I noticed Simon Lee draw parallels to winter 2012/13 in regard to potential SSW and split in January which was experienced then in early January 2013, equally in December to this one we had a spike in solar activity, similarly Nina weakening so there's odd parallels there. This paper is very interesting and may prove relevant.

[1] A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurred in January 2013 during moderate‐to‐high solar activity conditions. Observations during the winter of 2012/2013 reveal strong ionospheric disturbances associated with this event. Anomalous variations in vertical ion drift measured at the geomagnetic equator at Jicamarca (12°S, 77°W) are observed for over 40 days. We report strong perturbations in the total electron content (TEC) that maximize in the crests of equatorial ionization anomaly, reach 100% of the background value, exhibit significant longitudinal and hemispheric asymmetry, and last for over 40 days. The magnitude of ionospheric anomalies in both vertical drifts and TEC is comparable to the anomalies observed during the record‐strong SSW of January 2009 that coincided with the extreme solar minimum. This observation contrasts with results of numerical simulations that predict weaker ionospheric response to the tidal forcing during high solar activity.With the Nina weakening as well....

 

 

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Edited December 8, 2020 by Daniel*