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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex

    It's that time of year where we all revert back to being giddy little children, dreaming of that snowy Winter wonderland and looking forward to those cold crispy nights snuggled next to an open fire.

    Winter is upon us, let us discuss it here with warmth and kindness and pray It's an epic one.

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    I have heard from a reliable source that henceforth the European high will be known as 'Prozac Ridge'

    I’m just wondering rather than having model verification stats, we should perhaps have poster verification stats. That way we can see who it’s worth paying attention to and who to disregard.....just a

    Yes, I agree. I wanted snow as much as anyone but along with others was never enthused with this spell. I don't claim any crystal ball or magical abilities, but I can (most of the time) read a chart a

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    There are some chilly Christmas Day charts on the GFS extended in terms of 850hpas, what has struck me is that it doesn't look stormy nor that unsettled on many of them. See if GFS sticks to a fairly quiet Christmas, Atlantic system wise at least.

    GFSP04EU99_660_2.pngGFSP05EU99_660_2.pngGFSP06EU99_660_2.pngGFSP07EU99_660_2.pngGFSP08EU99_660_2.pngGFSP11EU99_660_2.pngGFSP16EU99_660_2.pngGFSP19EU99_660_2.pngGFSP27EU99_660_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    Good morning, a nice set of charts for Christmas although as we know it's still some way off yet (despite the amount of people with their decorations up already!)

    I'm hoping the big day itself will bring some sun which to be fair it normally does 🙂 Even in the worst of winters like 2006/07,  2013/14 or last year for example it was still cooler and sunnier. Most likely between low pressure systems.

    A lot of people are excited about the current outlook, which is of course way better synoptically compared to last years super PV, raging Atlantic setup. 

    Fingers crossed that things keep the Atlantic in check. I'd love to be walking my Christmas breakfast off with that crunching snow sound and cold air on my face!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

    It'll be nice to have a seasonal Christmas with single digit temps for a change this year. As for something wintry- the last time was back in 2013 here (snow/sleet shower lunchtime).

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    Posted
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Tottenham, N London

    Another chilly, damp and gloomy day where it never really gets light.

    Next week looks much of the same IMBY, certainly no crisp, cold days on offer. This is about as bad as it gets for December IMO.. but at least it's not mild rain I suppose! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    for those of us old enough to remember dec81 the uppers were never very low  around -5 c 850hpa that month but that didnt stop us having heavy snowfalls with big snowdrifts even here in lowland Sussex!

    Quite so Sleety. The deepest snow fall of the last 50 years in Southwest England (12-18 inches on the level and up to 30 foot drifts.) Occured with uppers of minus 2-3c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

    Just finished watching the weather for the week ahead on country file and Wales is looking very good for ❄️ Friday especially hill areas and also some at lower levels and also th the North of Scotland. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
    11 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

    Just finished watching the weather for the week ahead on country file and Wales is looking very good for ❄️ Friday especially hill areas and also some at lower levels and also th the North of Scotland. 

    Im travelling home from work from snowdonia to haverfordwest hills and mountains all the way should be fun. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Here we go folks! strap in for the ride that will be 2020/21. Stopping at Disappointment Central, Tedium Court Road and Frustration Circus - let the Autumn continue Winter begin!

    Just a thought, the last time the country was in such dire straits was the Winter of discontent which happened to be 1978/79 and we know what that brought...

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

    If these models get any better for the start of winter i might even have to get my central heating fixed!😮

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The Weather Outlooks winter forecast
     

    Quote

     

    Winter 2020-21: Mixed winter

    Forecast overview

    A mixed winter is forecast. December is predicted to bring cold periods and there is a possibility of snow even in parts of southern Britain. Milder conditions are favoured for much of January and early February. It could then turn colder again for a time towards the end of the season. 

    Temperature

    Cold start but above the 30 year norm over the three month period.

    Precipitation

    Rainfall levels are forecast to be slightly above the 30 year average in the south east and above average in the north west.

     

    Full forecast here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    ECM is excellent.  The complaints going on and the cold spell has collapsed posts are bizarre.  It’s 1/12/20....looking nice to me

     

    BFTP

    I’m convinced some people wait for a milder run to instantly churn out a load of posts about how winter is over. Bizarre behaviour.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl

    I don't ask for much from this month. Just a repeat of the 28 cm depth we had here in December 2017 would do me fine. 😛 One of the incredibly rare times when a streamer hit Bewdley head on and stayed there!

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    WinterFX_Promo2.jpg
    WWW.THEWEATHERNETWORK.COM

    It's the season we were built for, Canada! Grab your parka and find out what the season has in store for your region.

    not sure what knock on effect this set up would have for Western Europe?

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    All of you fretting over PREDICTIONS OF PRECIPITATION for tomorrow do know that they are merely predictions right!?

    Look at the current radar and how much rain there is this morning. No model had this much rain even on yesterday evenings updates! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
    38 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Who know which one is accurate 🤷🏻‍♂️ Not too much in it now though. Here’s the ECM ... 

    It does make me wonder why look at the models if at most ranges they seem to change quite considerably.  They  all show variations on a theme with the results for them being a bit of a scatter gun affect.  Are they any better than the headlines in the Express where they might be right on one or two occasions?  Or is it a case of those making posts about the potential for snow being good is because they are cherry picking and not looking at the overall picture?  Just a thought. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Anyone got a big red button we can deploy on that absolute turd of a Siberian high? Thanks for coming and all that fella but it’s only the 3rd December and your invite to this winter party has expired. 
     

    It’s still there at day 10 and pressure rising over Europe now so when it does  finally bugger off I think we’ll be at the mercy of the Atlantic

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl

    All downgraded as usual... 

     

    If I had a quid every time I was promised a winter wonderland I would be living in Canada now, where the snow is real, not a dream like here in this perpetual autumn 😞

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    My very least favourite weather of all types possible today!

    Cold rain. 5c and miserable. If it's going to rain, give me mild SW'erlies and 12-15c or whatever. If it's going to be cold, at least be dry and calm. This is just neither one nor the other!

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    Don't rule out something colder just yet when looking at the jet stream pattern

    image.thumb.png.e571b952c594a8291c6e8f37e738d371.png

    The strongest part of the jet stream is currently blasting out of east Asia and across the Pacific which is different to the usual early winter setup we have got used to seeing in most of the recent winters from 2013/14 onwards

    Notice how much weaker and more split up the jet gets once it hits the USA. Lots of loops and bits all over the place. We have a general blocked pattern between the USA and central Asia with the vast bulk of the zonality in the Pacific for a change

    As long as we can keep this kind of pattern going we should be in a good place later in the month and into next year

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    I'm 73 and have been studying the weather and keeping records since I was a child, so, yes, I have experienced some great winters. [I lived in Birmingham during the 1962/63 winter, not far from the Met Office official observatory in Edgbaston, and records from there show a maximum temp of 4'C between December 22nd and March 1st. Some winter!]

    I've got a few observations to make.

    One is a riposte to the suggestions that, because of global warming, we will never get really cold weather digging in again. Well, late Feb and early March 2018 shows we can get very low temps in this country and, as a general observation, the record breaking low temps in the USA and Canada in recent years has shown that, if the synoptics are right, the cold in the arctic is as cold as it ever was once the sun disappears and the long winter night takes over.

    The other is regarding the forecast charts. Though those out beyond about 5/6 days can show up trends in pressure distribution or jet stream patterns, the detail really is FI. Not for nothing is the weather regarded as a classic example of chaos theory shown as fact. It's why the Met Office is so cautious in its extended predictions. And this despite state of the art computing power and a data stream that was only dreamed about when I was young.

    Like many on this site, I've too often been drawn into telling relatives and friends of imminent cold or snow, only to have egg on my face - yet I still do it!

    Finally, worth reading (you can download an Kindle though the hard copy is sadly out of print) is Gordon Manley's 'Climate and the British Scene'. A great work from the man who worked on and produced (before computers could do the number crunching) the famous Central England Temperature or CET, which we use today, albeit slightly modified, in our weather analysis.

    Here's to a long and snowy winter. Cheers.

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