Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[bluearmy]

little sign on the gefs of week 2 showing any defined features - the ens 500mb chart 8/14  guidance will remain pretty flat for the time being 

[LRD]

GFS 12z Perturbation 20 has it all sorted

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

GFS 12z Perturbation 20 has it all sorted

its lonely …...

[Met4Cast]

The scatter begins at day 2..

Models really are struggling at the moment to find a route forward. 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

its lonely …...

And its Wet.

[Daniel*]

Pressure seems lower In med drawing in the cold better in Europe slither of -10C uppers not bad! 

00z12z

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And its Wet.

I wasn't being serious. But if I was and if that did transpire, then it wouldn't be long before the snow and deep cold would arrive with that low heading towards Italia. Then boooooom

[Timmytour]

The models showing the potential for cold winter conditions ahead at this time of year is not unusual.  I think just about every thread before or just into December talks about exciting potential and great FI model runs.

Last year we got a run that showed 40cm of snow falling in the south east!!!  (page 85)

 

 

So I won't get carried away with talk of easterlies etc but will remain in hope of getting them.Please God we can at least get something this winter.....we really have been on a dire run, particularly in regard to Decembers and Januarys. It speaks volumes that, aside from the very wonderful December 2010, the coldest month in the last 23 years was a March! 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

I wasn't being serious. But if I was and if that did transpire, then it wouldn't be long before the snow and deep cold would arrive with that low heading towards Italia. Then boooooom

You seriously suggesting that chart would bring an ice storm?

[Daniel*]

Very similar to ECM 00z but Europe is bit colder and there’s lower pressure in med so an improvement.

>

the GFS for same time at T144 I know what I prefer...

[LRD]

GFS ensembles and the spaghetti don't suggest any deep cold arriving any time soon

Op at the top end in FI. Cool looks favoured but settled or unsettled isn't clear cut (as per Met Office outlook to be fair)

[Decemberof2010]

Yes P20 looks lonely

However P13 says I’m lucky for you P20 as I’m about to join your ensemble bubble. Hopefully they can join up with 3 more ensembles over Christmas to stop me cherry picking when I feel like it. 
 

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

The models showing the potential for cold winter conditions ahead at this time of year is not unusual.  I think just about every thread before or just into December talks about exciting potential and great FI model runs.

Last year we got a run that showed 40cm of snow falling in the south east!!!  (page 85)

 

 

So I won't get carried away with talk of easterlies etc but will remain in hope of getting them.Please God we can at least get something this winter.....we really have been on a dire run, particularly in regard to Decembers and Januarys. It speaks volumes that, aside from the very wonderful December 2010, the coldest month in the last 23 years was a March! 

Feb 2018 and Jan 2010 were colder than that March? Jan was 1.4c.

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You seriously suggesting that chart would bring an ice storm?

Oh blimey. Just trying to inject a bit of humour. I won't bother next time! 

[booferking]

EC could be good here if that low sinks south east and heights rise in Atlantic earlier Northerly incoming.

[sheikhy]

Now thats what am talking bout!!2 fingers from the ecm at gfs on 168 hours!!

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

EC could be good here if that low sinks south east and heights rise in Atlantic earlier Northerly incoming.

Yep  this looking good  northerly  with blocking towards greenland   on the next frame?    

[Timmytour]

4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Feb 2018 and Jan 2010 were colder than that March? Jan was 1.4c.

I missed Jan 2010!   But I think Feb 2018 was 2.9C, a shade warmer than March 2013's 2.7C .

There's just December now that can prevent March being the coldest month of the 2011-2020 decade!

 

[swfc]

Another erratic run today,next

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, LRD said:

Oh blimey. Just trying to inject a bit of humour. I won't bother next time! 

Apologies, uncalled for comment by me.

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Apologies, uncalled for comment by me.

No worries mate

ECM 192 - NH view. Not bad. That low to our West could end up being too SW based again though

[weirpig]

Hard going the ecm 12z    216  drops the low to the south west and bring us southerly winds 

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

I think anyone looking for sustained blocking & proper cold might be disappointed, though there are many reasons to be positive. 

The MJO moving into phase 5 composites with high pressure to the east. I suspect the blocking we're seeing on the models at the moment & Atlantic wave break events is them trying to work out how we transition from the current pattern > something closely resembling the composite above, there is some evidence within the EPS/GEFS of the above pattern.

This week is cold, seasonal & blocked thanks to an Atlantic wave break throwing heights across the UK towards Scandinavia, things get a little bit messy thereafter but a clear direction seems to be back towards something more unsettled with a trough digging southwards, though perhaps ending up too far west. 

However.. I would take that. If the above pattern transpired, it'd be fairly poor in the short term for the UK, however it's a huge pre-cursor to a potential SSW/SPV weakening which could perhaps be better in the longer-term.

Models do seem to be settling down now the route forward with the MJO is becoming resolved, though expect a few more swings to come.

Bang on cue.... From the ecm 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Hard going the ecm 12z    216  drops the low to the south west and bring us southerly winds 

Yep totally at odds with this morning, see what tom/Fri bring

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

No worries mate

ECM 192 - NH view. Not bad. That low to our West could end up being too SW based again though

Yes, it is modelled too far west at the moment, here T216:

But what I would say is that this is 8-9 days away and in a situation the models find difficult, it will most probably change.  The wider picture, of the trop PV being shunted away from Canada and Greenland is happening every run, once this actually happens, maybe we can expect the models to firm up on what takes its place, and the implications for our back yard.