Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The best part of a lockdown day. 12z are on the way. looking for output that shows us a foot of powder that @mushymanrob promised is on its way

Glad you said this! I’m not alone with the 12z being one of goto activities at present.. let’s hope there is no feeling of flatness by 19:00 ;)

ps no icon wheeled out.. not a good start....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've done some laughing reading these posts for the past hour folks... And probably gone up a notch with my weather knowledge from reading such great informed posts... Oh and the humour is a tribute to Bobby Ball.. Rock on... Just to add a few of my thoughts to this excellent forum... Regarding the EC46.. Things definitely becoming more unsettled towards mid late next week with rain and stronger winds at times.. This perhaps not lasting for any real time, before High Pressure begins to have more influence come the 2nd week of December.. Tbh I'm seeing a fair amount of settled Conditions towards the South and SE for much of next month... The NW being more prone to occasional bouts of wetter and windier spells... I'm not seeing significant cold at this stage, more of an homegrown cold scenario at times, this bringing frost and fog at times. 

In all honesty I would take a settled and Frosty Xmas period at this stage, and hopefully something more significant come the New Year! Anyhow the silly season begins in just 4 days... What's not to like... Enjoy it if you can and do take care..

[Frosty.]

Wow Matt, Great post as always, you surely are the oracle when it comes to predictions but I’m hopeful that the GEFS is on to something with a chance of snow at times, especially further north and high ground etc..etc....please post more, we miss you...well I do anyways!

[SMU]

Lovely ICON to start the afternoon.

GFS follows suit with pigeon steps backwards as well

Note the amplitude of the wave over Scandi

12z first 06z second

Also note the atlantic jet digging further west.

Now add in the same timestamp from yesterdays 12z was - look how flat it is.

Look how far west the jet has come back today V the east locale yesterday

 

[SMU]

Another viewpoint > the net of more amplification is colder air moving west.

Look at that correction from 06z ...

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Another viewpoint > the net of more amplification is colder air moving west.

Look at that correction from 06z ...

Please ukmo play ball for once lol

[Matt H]

UKMO 12z at t144 doesn’t look too bad...

[TSNWK]

What is promising I think is a nice gap between north east Canada and Greenland.. if I recall there was a pesky low pressure system there on the morning runs... that screwed things up.. if I’ve got this right we could be seeing more pleasing runs for coldies in a tick...

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

UKMO 12z at t144 doesn’t look too bad...

T144 for both. Still prefer gfs.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

UKMO 12z at t144 doesn’t look too bad...

It’s a nice chart in my view and I think that little bit energy over north east canda will pump up the tentative heights over Greenland further.. basically if you me that chart At 3,30 I would have taken it....:)

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 for both. Still prefer gfs.

UKMO looks better to me. Better heights into Greenland.

[SMU]

I think based on every thing - The GFS looks about right now out to day 7...

 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

UKMO looks better to me. Better heights into Greenland.

T168 t192 ukmo the low would flatten it  imo.

Edited November 27, 2020 by That ECM

[kold weather]

Whilst 12z runs are rolling out looking at the extended GFS ensembles there is a signal that after perhaps a slightly flatter period things start to amplify again as we head past mid month.

Quite a few cold Xmas runs, bit of course this far out extreme amount of salt required.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T168 t192 ukmo would flatten it with the low imo.

Who knows, the low could stall and build the ridge even more ahead of it. (I'm assuming we're talking about the low over NE America)

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 for both. Still prefer gfs.

UKMO looks miles better to me.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I’m loving this, from that should see continued Scandi heights and trough to our NW disrupt SEwards....should?

 

BFTP

Edited November 27, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think based on every thing - The GFS looks about right now out to day 7...

 

I still think we gona see more changes between the 72 and 120 hour time frame steve!!!good runs so far this evening!!!over to the ecm!!

[LRD]

GFS up to 210 looks to my eyes to be starting off settled with average temps, then turning unsettled with average temps, then unsettled and quite cool, then settled and pretty cold. This would be frosty and maybe foggy on the morning of the 6th

Russian high looks poised but it is just out of our reach. Needs to back west a bit more. It becoming centred over Norway, of course, being ideal

Edited November 27, 2020 by LRD

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

I still think we gona see more changes between the 72 and 120 hour time frame steve!!!good runs so far this evening!!!over to the ecm!!

Personally i would like the UKMO to verify - ridge stronger and further up towards Greenland, based on the modus operandi, the ECM will be even more amplified, which would be great, sods law suggests it wont though, on this occasion i think not, GFS might be right - for once at D8.

[Nick F]

12z GFS, polar front jet positioned a fair bit futher south and west of the UK than 06z 1st weekend of December. As a result, we have some cold air to play with and we're into slider low territory as Atlantic lows come up against blocking to the east.

[IDO]

Not sure the GFS is going anywhere with this and not really my cup of tea:

A conveyor belt of storms firing off the jet heading west to east. Classic zonal upstream but running up against that Russian block so stalling some what as it nears the UK? Repeating pattern on this run:

t180>>  t240>> 

Hopefully GFS is barking up the wrong tree and maybe ECM will take us some other direction?

[swfc]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Not sure the GFS is going anywhere with this and not really my cup of tea:

A conveyor belt of storms firing off the jet heading west to east. Classic zonal upstream but running up against that Russian block so stalling some what as it nears the UK? Repeating pattern on this run:

t180>>  t240>> 

Hopefully GFS is barking up the wrong tree and maybe ECM will take us some other direction?

Yes IDO very non descript run and looking a bit iffy imo

[Frosty.]

Wow guys, I’m so much excited..Shirley you can see why the GEFS is showing a tendency towards below average temps longer term??..hmm..hmm..even the MO concur with that..wow..you know something, I have a feeling this winter will be better than the last several..yeah really profound but whatever..just my opinion!

[LRD]

GFS shows lows sliding into cold-ish air. It ain't deep cold but it ain't to be sniffed at either. Not sure what some folk are expecting the models to be showing at this stage. A Jan 1987 repeat is not on the cards. At least not yet