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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter


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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Aye, 06Z is much flatter by T+240:😱

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    The 06z always seems to flatten out the pattern before the 12 and 18z re-amplify.

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    Maybe it’s because those images are from the end of April ?? 😂

    Why is it one or two on here, as soon as they have nailed their proverbial colours to their masts, they will not let it go? They can’t be seen to be wrong, God forbid. Watering it down as the charts t

    Can we get away from this cold air myth. We have the ECM showing a possible snow event this Friday. We do not need -10c 850s for snow. Yes, it is great when they come along but you can get snow f

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    12 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    That’s big difference I think gfs is Progressive here don’t think ecm as it right either at that stage still lots of changes to come a cold start December is real possibility..

    8D271CDB-C385-4194-9277-B6EDD0E85764.png

    75073184-58CA-4CF8-BE71-70E19EC8C727.png

    It really is quite laughable as to why they're so miles apart.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    But, following the 'flat' blip, things do end on a more interesting note: not all that far from 'square one' in fact... a nice build-up of cold air over Europe, too. Garden paths aplenty?🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    hello WIB

    Im not buying the ops quick return to a zonal Atlantic driven pattern. The Anomaly charts are consistent and are gradually building towards mid/high latitude blocking. There may be a short lived Westerly spell but overall IMHO the outlook is decidedly promising for cold weather lovers. Id expect and Easterly after next weekend, which may not start out as being overly cold, but as the film tag says "build it and they will come" .

    I reckon the current outlook is the best "winter" (discounting the march, spring, cold spells of 13,18) outlook for ten years.

     

    814day.03 fri2.gif

    Do not think I have ever seen such a positive post from you mushy in regards to a possible cold outlook.

    You are usually the one who always keeps feet on the ground and highlight the first sign of a model going off on a fantasy cold run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    But, following the 'flat' blip, things do end on a more interesting note: not all that far from 'square one' in fact... a nice build-up of cold air over Europe, too. Garden paths aplenty?🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Nice to see the colder air in Europe at that point.

    This is starting to feel like a second / third bite of the cherry. Poor initial starter but very sticky chocolate fondant pudding for desert 🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    25 minutes ago, joggs said:

    The 06z always seems to flatten out the pattern before the 12 and 18z re-amplify.

    Seems to have the iron on full steam in an effort to flatten the pattern.  Huge variation currently from model to model and from run to run for the same model. Russian Roulette at the moment. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The op def the most progressive in flattening the pattern according to the short ens:

    graphe4_0000_306_149___.thumb.png.7ca4ecfdc91a124f4ab26100c79056d0.png  graphe6_0000_295_143___.thumb.png.f1cbbae35ceadd96eadafd04d7e11f87.png

    The Control similar in design but less dramatics. Some ens still more convincing with the longevity and degree of those lower heights but the signal (UK trough) is a transient one taking the mean as a guide? The above are for London and temps wise nothing cold, looking dry and average seems the call up to D6, until the cold front arrives.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    59 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    My input using the 500 mb anomaly charts

    Ec-gfs and noaa as usual

    Ec-gfs similar to each other but not the same, over usa or how treat European trough; ec changes over n America are perhaps about how 2 days on might be expected to look; gfs has lost  the ridge between the troughs so trough from ne Canada does just about link with one over s’ern states

    Noaa has ridge over w’ern n America bit more pronounced also trough to east, now shows ridge e of this and higher +ve values than 2 days ago; this in turn creates more marked troughing in uk area, c of g about on 10 w and very little contour flow into Europe.

    Well make of these what you will, not a set of charts to suggest anything that will last for many days but the 8-14 does keep the 6-10 pattern/strengths into its period. Noaa is usually closest to what actually occurs and ec lately has been almost as variable as gfs, so go with noaa.

    The contour heights predicted over the uk are ‘about’ average for this time of year and there is no indication of deep cold air being advected over the country, from any other area, be that NW-N-NE-E so temperature wise around, perhaps a touch below, at times countrywide. No likelihood of any low ground snow from any ppn. Higher northern ground if anything falls. The far NW of the UK most unsettled/changeable and possible gales if any surface lows deepen close to that part of the country with temporary snow in the colder air behind the systems. But nothing unusual for late November/early December in the 6-14 day outlook in my view. With such a slack flow over southern areas then fog and frost could develop on suitable clear sky nights.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

     

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    Just now, johnholmes said:

    Not sure why they are not giving the link to the site-sorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Some consistency between the 3 'major' models up to +144h (next thurs). Obviously some small variances with regards to the depth of the low in the Atlantic and the position of the Scrussian high. 

    ECM                                                                   GFS                                                                    UKMO

     image.thumb.png.9381b6140689d364f882fc46aa5a94de.png        image.thumb.png.cbe89d412d71e1af082b173291bd0795.png         image.thumb.png.d752520fd2b6569a2367e4da33bcfbc3.png


    Fast forward just 24 hours, and it's just embarrassing (I've used GEM as the UKMO doesn't have a +168h). 

    ECM                                                                 GFS                                                                     GEM

     image.thumb.png.cc4057d89974356092d8e81c3e3f99c4.png      image.thumb.png.49d0b823b9ccc1ab6e2a4ca6615bc2e8.png           image.thumb.png.8ec807bc98b0c8147df9c4e3dec0a4b8.png
                       

    Until that low is resolved, the output is going to be all over the place, from run to run and from model to model. I wouldn't start worrying until ALL the models start reflecting the GFS 06z solution. 

     


     

    Edited by PerfectStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    December 4th is the tipping point. The ECM is much sharper with the ridging both in the Atlantic and across Scandia/Russia allowing for much greater trough disruption & ejection of low pressure southwards into Europe, as a result the pattern remains sluggish and rather amplified later on in the run.

    ECM.thumb.png.185227a9e479d7959aa79f12df7cbc0d.png

    The GFS is much flatter in the Atlantic and has more positive ridging over Scandinavia resulting in far less trough disruption SE into Europe & a much faster return to a flat, Atlantic like pattern. Thankfully, the Det appears to be on the more progressive side of the ensemble pack at this stage.

    GFS.thumb.png.e49b97cdf14f348e2725b55dc463e225.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    16 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

    What’s this mean 

    The chart shows the average/mean of the ECM ENS pressure charts at day 15 , showing a high pressure to our NW and a LP to our S/SE. In general it’s pointing towards the good chance of very cold weather in the U.K.

    It’s never quite as straight forward as that as means are skewed by outliers etc, however you won’t see many charts better than that. 
    On face value that chart points towards a Beast from the East with plenty of moisture and low pressure systems bumping into the cold air from the south - lots of snow 😬👍

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    The chart shows the average/mean of the ECM ENS pressure charts at day 15 , showing a high pressure to our NW and a LP to our S/SE. In general it’s pointing towards the good chance of very cold weather in the U.K.

    It’s never quite as straight forward as that as means are skewed by outliers etc, however you won’t see many charts better than that. 
    On face value that chart points towards a Beast from the East with plenty of moisture and low pressure systems bumping into the cold air from the south - lots of snow 😬👍

    my favourite childhood setup, E'lys with low pressure and snow from the south!

    archives-1995-12-30-12-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Glancing charts, key feature is the trough dropping into Europe and much lower heights, have that in place and any Atlantic attack will have a hard time in getting a foothold, I can see a quick route to extensive block to our north thanks to positioning of the PV.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 hour ago, Gypo said:

    YUM!

    image.thumb.png.227c475f1e8e237368b2e9d8867fa4f5.png

     

    1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

    The chart shows the average/mean of the ECM ENS pressure charts at day 15 , showing a high pressure to our NW and a LP to our S/SE. In general it’s pointing towards the good chance of very cold weather in the U.K.

    It’s never quite as straight forward as that as means are skewed by outliers etc, however you won’t see many charts better than that. 
    On face value that chart points towards a Beast from the East with plenty of moisture and low pressure systems bumping into the cold air from the south - lots of snow 😬👍

    Its not a mean - its the ec control from yesterday - it is as much use as the gfsp from yesterday which wasn't far away from it but as nigh on useless at that timescale

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

     

    Its not a mean - its the ec control from yesterday - it is as much use as the gfsp from yesterday which wasn't far away from it but as nigh on useless at that timescale

    Oh yeah, I seen ENS and just presumed it was the mean - it would be a great mean though 😬 
    And you are correct, absolutely useless and never to be seen again unfortunately 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    Thanks.. my feet are on the ground, im interested in what the weather is doing regardless of personal preferences. Ive been following the charts for over 50 years, long before the internet and models were so freely available. Ive lived through many cold winters and now recognise the signs.. im looking at the synoptic pattern and the expected synoptic pattern along with my faith in the NOAA charts, they "fit" with the type of synoptic patterns that lead us into 78/9 and 84/5 for eg.

    Of course this isnt a "done deal" but imho the charts are heading that way, which this season holds far more potential for then many previous and apart from December 2010 is the most promising since i joined this site 15 odd years ago. (ignoring march 13 and 18 as they were technically spring)

    rob, i would temper your thoughts on this for two reasons -

    a) there is still no mid atlantic upper ridge on the cpc day 11

    b) the w euro trough is a rare thing and if anything is going to fail to sustain on a noaa cpc chart it is this feature ! 

    the current op output week 2 of a displaced azores ridge with a tilted trough axis from s Greenland into se Europe and systems crossing nw Europe with warm sectors seems reasonable 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Looking at the verification of the 0z op's and we can see why d9-d10 ECM charts should be treated with caution in setups like this:

    d8 >>> cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.9cabf0c8c596049a4a3d818b718ec7b2.png d10>>> cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.a1b4ceaedb13cfc5c20342780031c906.png

    ECM on top of GFS at D8 as we would expect, then on d10 a reversal and quite a significant difference between them in  favour of the GFS. I am not saying that GFS is right on this occasion but from my experience, technically ECM are not great with any type of ridging at that range. Of course, I doubt pro forecasters take much notice of op runs after D8!

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