Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

I agree with you but the fluidity in the models means nothing is cast in stone. There is know active mobile look about things ie"west to east mobility"but things can change, its weather after all and the models are showing things what haven't happened yet. Still it is looking better than it could, in theory

That was kinda the point of the post. The fact that there isn't certainty and lots of options are being explored, most of which bring average or below average conditions, is what is encouraging. Run after run of zonality is just dead boring, as are the weather conditions it produces.

[The PIT]

Naff run nothing really happenign in the reliable time frame bar chasing cloud and fog around. As ever the tease is in lala land.

[Scandinavian High.]

Ive got to agree with Steve cool frosty conditions models looking interesting start of winter it’s not Exactly powerful jet raging across the uk mild wet conditions low after low next folks will saying next let’s push reset  button..

Edited November 26, 2020 by abbie123

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoping E C brings something nicer than the hideous 00z det ....

Not that hideous?  Slight adjustment and it would be lovely....and plenty of time for that....let’s hope we don’t see 3000mile SW’lies

 

BFTP

[Downburst]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoping E C brings something nicer than the hideous 00z det ....

Yep, really interested to see what happens to that what would be catastrophic low coming out of Bissau on Dec 4, as modelled on 00z

[Mike Poole]

My prediction is ECM will be similar to GEM, which was a great run but just not quite making it both on heights into Greenland and cold air in place at the end.  But that is for early December, the cold pools haven’t had a chance to build yet.  And the models are only just coming to terms with the blocked pattern.  So I’m with others who say this is not your usual Atlantic zonal drossfest, and won’t be for the foreseeable, so let;s give it a chance to see what might be thrown up by the models in the next fortnight or so.  Will be interesting to watch.

[tight isobar]

This is the foot hold....  the difference between a landmass seaboard ridge... and an-open Pacific ridge are vast.. and will have massive ramifications on the motherload limpit pv design!...   its a sure cert for eventual momentum... in our favour going forward into December! 

[northwestsnow]

EC following UKMO ? 

Looks that way at 120...

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC following UKMO ? 

Looks that way at 120...

More blocked over scandi could try another easterly again @Steve Murr at again.

Edited November 26, 2020 by booferking

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

More blocked over scandi could try and easterly again @Steve Murr at again.

Back we go west...

 

[swfc]

21 minutes ago, MP-R said:

That was kinda the point of the post. The fact that there isn't certainty and lots of options are being explored, most of which bring average or below average conditions, is what is encouraging. Run after run of zonality is just dead boring, as are the weather conditions it produces.

Yes it is I agree. The thing is every year esp early December there seems to be a fatom easterly chase as soon as there is any Heighths to the east. Il lay diamonds it fails. Its not to say a cold spell can't land. Ec earlier was binned because it showed a blown up low heading south at day 10.if it showed a raging easterly with - 10 uppers there would be snow depth charts? Now then you get the back ground signals that don't back up a crap run? It's more informative to comment on the output not what could be coming ie ENSO, Nina footprint ete ete. Hopefully a good winter is on its way but if you can show me anything that in the near future that shows this then great. The outlook isn't zonal which is great, other than that I've zero idea

[KTtom]

Frustrating to see such potential with hights pushing into eastern Greenland, looks at first glance to be setting up for a classic northerly, not seen for some time, however heights to the north west likely to scupper it. Even if the scandi high does gain more influence over the uk, itll hardly be cold enough to bring the presents a northerly would deliver.

Edited November 26, 2020 by KTtom

[northwestsnow]

Bit scared that trough is going to drop to our west again at 168...

[booferking]

@Steve Murr on the ECM control panel back it west just little bit more..

[weirpig]

Trough dropped  although not as far west as the 0z   

[Day 10]

144 side by side, EC first.

[swfc]

42 minutes ago, MP-R said:

 

The Heighths to scan don't support an easterly imo. Sorry. Guess ec is in the bin again

Edited November 26, 2020 by swfc

[tight isobar]

D-day!! The shunt is firm.. and the amp on more feature blocking opens... the pv is on the run.....

[nick sussex]

If the low dropping south on the ECM day 7 could disrupt more and elongate could be some interest.

The UKMO needs to take a hike and not verify as it’s the most progressive solution .

The ECM blows up the low at day 8 and also needs to take a hike !

Edited November 26, 2020 by nick sussex

[weirpig]

Ouch  still developing this low    

[SMU]

ECM day 8 is a bit rough.

Cold rain & windy  

[That ECM]

Minus 16 replaced by plus 12. Just the 28 difference

[northwestsnow]

Need that low to sod off at day 8...!!

[swfc]

Ec is OK on the nhp in fi. PV on its bike to the east. Not giving the UK cold but not zonal as they say

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Need that low to sod off at day 8...!!

Where tho nw jet going south and PV on its bike

Edited November 26, 2020 by swfc