Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Froze were the Days]

25 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

And, it's up to Day 10, on today's GFS 12Z... and, by golly, it's boring!

    

What almost as boring as ecm output?...maybe the models are telling us to hibernate and wake up when we have something to look at...In March.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

Follows the latest ICON in that regard

Icon..is a 24 hr nowacast precipitation mod.. imo !!  

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Crazy changes at short notice!!cant trust the model at all if it cant get the weather right 48 hours from now!!the ukmo looks diffferent at just 48 hours aswell!!nowcast comes to mind straight away!!!at least its not gone west again

I was once in a red warning area for snow which got changed with 2 hours to go still not over it precipitation is hard to pin down until near the time. It’s only when it’s snow possibilities does it become apparent to many. The models give there best guess but often change.

Edited December 1, 2020 by That ECM

[Anthony Burden]

Still uncertainty around low pressure movements over next 4/5days and cold it will be.

Snow in places,most likely the north single figure temperatures for at least the next 8 to 10 days.

Not the normal run of the mill December that we are use to.

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What almost as boring as ecm output?...maybe the models are telling us to hibernate and wake up when we have something to look at...In March.

I stuck it out, Froze... and have now lost the will to live!

[mb018538]

I’m really trying my best to get hyped up about this upcoming spell, but I just can’t  

Hope everyone else is finding it exciting because I just can’t. I need something proper to get my teeth into, a stretch of cold days with 4-6c maxima and rain is just miserable for me. I’d rather it was 12c, mild and raining. If it’s going to be cold, do it properly! Let’s hope for some treasure down the line.

[Met4Cast]

I'm not sure what they changed in the last update to the GFS but it seems to be awful now. It's struggling to resolve lows phasing all over the place, the swings between zonal > ultra blocked in the extended are ridiculous, the model has always been a bit flip floppy but it seems to have ramped that up to extreme levels. The ECM/UKMO have been much more consistent in the mid-term so until the GFS gets it's act together I don't think I'll bother with it for a while. 

[Mike Poole]

Longer term than the end of the week snow event, the GEM is having a right good go at it on the 12z run, here T192, T240:

Great to see those heights to the north, wonder what ECM will show tonight?

Edited December 1, 2020 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I’m really trying my best to get hyped up about this upcoming spell, but I just can’t  

Hope everyone else is finding it exciting because I just can’t. I need something proper to get my teeth into, a stretch of cold days with 4-6c maxima and rain is just miserable for me. I’d rather it was 12c, mild and raining. If it’s going to be cold, do it properly! Let’s hope for some treasure down the line.

hope that is not the case? assuming most days from Sat would be dry? but agree if it is mostly wet, then I'd rather a Dec '15

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Longer term than the end of the week snow event, the GEM is having a right good go at it on the 12z run, here T192, T240:

D10 Has cold air filtering into NEstern Europe with a seperation of the high. Pretty good run.

[PolarWarsaw]

I posted on Sunday that patterns quickly find a way to revert against us, our cold spells practically never in well over a decade of model watching come from having to sit, wait and patiently hope things fall into place for us (because they don't, a few days later a new pattern is always picked up and 99/100 it's an Atlantic set up) and although there is no consistent signal for the Atlantic to pick up strength, there's been small signs creeping in that after a few cooler days this weekend, we are heading away from a colder set up into the middle of next week. If that happens then I suspect that the positivity we've seen up to now will be replaced a more realistic vibe...this set up is firmly the lip stick on a pig scenario. 

We are very far down the line from anything remotely like a widespread, recognised cold spell with lowland snow. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I posted on Sunday that patterns quickly find a way to revert against us, our cold spells practically never in well over a decade of model watching come from having to sit, wait and patiently hope things fall into place for us (because they don't, a few days later a new pattern is always picked up and 99/100 it's an Atlantic set up) and although there is no consistent signal for the Atlantic to pick up strength, there's been small signs creeping in that after a few cooler days this weekend, we are heading away from a colder set up into the middle of next week. If that happens then I suspect that the positivity we've seen up to now will be replaced a more realistic vibe...this set up is firmly the lip stick on a pig scenario. 

We are very far down the line from anything remotely like a widespread, recognised cold spell with lowland snow. 

If you want to see a pattern far away from anything cold, look at Jan 1989 or Dec 2015

[Sweatyman]

7 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I posted on Sunday that patterns quickly find a way to revert against us, our cold spells practically never in well over a decade of model watching come from having to sit, wait and patiently hope things fall into place for us (because they don't, a few days later a new pattern is always picked up and 99/100 it's an Atlantic set up) and although there is no consistent signal for the Atlantic to pick up strength, there's been small signs creeping in that after a few cooler days this weekend, we are heading away from a colder set up into the middle of next week. If that happens then I suspect that the positivity we've seen up to now will be replaced a more realistic vibe...this set up is firmly the lip stick on a pig scenario. 

We are very far down the line from anything remotely like a widespread, recognised cold spell with lowland snow. 

Well you could have told us all during gfs18z last night

[winterof79]

54 minutes ago, Nick F said:

GFS being having a bit of a mare modelling the track of the low on Friday developing from a wave running across the south Thursday night. 06z kept the low across the SE, while the 12z takes it further north and deeper.

06z GFS for noon Friday

12z GFS for noon Friday

This affects where may see some snow as the precip bumps into cold air on the western flank of the low ...

Looking like the spine of the country is going to have some decent snowfall at some juncture Friday. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Pert 3,28 has it nailed only because it shows us what we want to see

jokes aside,most of the gefs ens at day ten>do not show zonality at all so we should wait and see,a slow burner still looks on the cards.

 

[Skullzrulerz]

12 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I posted on Sunday that patterns quickly find a way to revert against us, our cold spells practically never in well over a decade of model watching come from having to sit, wait and patiently hope things fall into place for us (because they don't, a few days later a new pattern is always picked up and 99/100 it's an Atlantic set up) and although there is no consistent signal for the Atlantic to pick up strength, there's been small signs creeping in that after a few cooler days this weekend, we are heading away from a colder set up into the middle of next week. If that happens then I suspect that the positivity we've seen up to now will be replaced a more realistic vibe...this set up is firmly the lip stick on a pig scenario. 

We are very far down the line from anything remotely like a widespread, recognised cold spell with lowland snow. 

I do have to agree with you I totally understand people's excitement though we must be realistic any snow showers will be confined to hills and Scotland if any 

There's no doubt it will get colder but I don't think it's going to get cold enough for lowland snowfall 

[Tim Bland]

14 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I do have to agree with you I totally understand people's excitement though we must be realistic any snow showers will be confined to hills and Scotland if any 

There's no doubt it will get colder but I don't think it's going to get cold enough for lowland snowfall 

ECM disagrees....

[Gowon]

Does anyone know if the GEM precipitation charts are reliable, because it's predicting quite a few days with frozen rain falling?

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Does anyone know if the GEM precipitation charts are reliable, because it's predicting quite a few days with frozen rain falling?

No precipitation charts from any model are reliable at that range.  Short range high res models up to 2 days maybe a bit better, looking out of the window is better still.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

I stuck it out, Froze... and have now lost the will to live!

On 1st December??

 

BFTP

[That ECM]

T120 ECM looks to be going down a different route. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM building to be darned good at t120....that’s torn it

 

BFTP 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM opening up that gap at 120 over NE states,it's more amplified than the 00z.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144 shows still low pressure affecting particularly the south of the UK, and the uppers are marginal but possible for snow:

Meanwhile, watch Greenland for the rest of this run.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

Looks good to me ...