Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Tim Bland]

From a very selfish point of view I’m happy with ICON...PS where is Shakey..it’s moved east again and he hasn’t posted?! Shall we send out a search party?! 

[SMU]

06Z GFS slap bang in the centre of this mornings track T72

 

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

From a very selfish point of view I’m happy with ICON...PS where is Shakey..it’s moved east again and he hasn’t posted?! Shall we send out a search party?! 

That’s actually better for me

[Tim Bland]

So in a few days it’s gone from Wales to the South East..at this rate it will be in Belgium...

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06Z GFS slap bang in the centre of this mornings track T72

 

Snow lover I’ve edited Steve’s post to cover the only part that matters

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow showers for my area shown on GFS, in the unlikely event it verifies, soon would be washed away everywhere anyway.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

From a very selfish point of view I’m happy with ICON...PS where is Shakey..it’s moved east again and he hasn’t posted?! Shall we send out a search party?! 

Aye, moving West though like on 00Z @sheikhy seeing some on this GFS

[Skullzrulerz]

17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

06z Icon has thrown the towel in at 84hrs. Don't blame it lol . 

And this is exactly why I said don't get your hopes up 

Sadly those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat It.

[ALL ABOARD]

He literally just means the icon has stopped coming out

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Snow showers for my area shown on GFS, in the unlikely event it verifies, soon would be washed away everywhere anyway.

does seem to turn less cold from the east, Friday night, 4 degrees, not that cold for 3am

[sheikhy]

The midlands is gona get a full on dumping of snow!!!you heard it folks!!!!looking for an increase in snow activity for the end of this week on the 12zs!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Snow showers for my area shown on GFS, in the unlikely event it verifies, soon would be washed away everywhere anyway.

We get the point - you think it will rain.

More amplification in the jet south of Greenland on the 6z at +99 - may lead to a good run in the medium term.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

does seem to turn less cold from the east, Friday night, 4 degrees, not that cold for 3am

Yes, so no prises for guessing how much snow this much vaunted cold spell is going to give us.

[Radiating Dendrite]

@mods - perhaps time to split the thread and have one for cold searching - we had one called the hunt for cold a few years back which seemed to work.

Just feels like a battle in here between those looking for cold and those who just revert to "I told you so" posts.

[Captain Shortwave]

Friday looking pretty cold. This morning’s Arpege.

 

2-3c at best for most away from the slightly milder south west.

A wintry mix shown on all models Thursday night into Friday in particular. Though detail is still in the air. There will be showers around and also the risk of more prolonged outbreaks in association to fronts circulating around the centre of the low that looks to be aligned close to the east coast and into France.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[ALL ABOARD]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

@mods - perhaps time to split the thread and have one for cold searching - we had one called the hunt for cold a few years back which seemed to work.

Just feels like a battle in here between those looking for cold and those who just revert to "I told you so" posts.

100 percent agree. 

Although I did post in the early winter discussion thread how snowfall can never be 100% accurately focused, dosent matter who you are. 

6z slightly better in terms of heights around Iceland. 

[That ECM]

interesting pressure feature to the north of us.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Paul

[LRD]

I know people have said that the Russian High is important for disrupting the vortex. That may well be the case and beyond my knowledge so can't comment. What I can comment on, though, is the 'standard' models and all I can see is that the Russian High is merely preventing cold air filtering down into Europe

Some of the synoptics we have at the moment we'd be facing a pretty snowy spell in many other years. Just can not believe how little cold there is in Europe in December without a Euro High being involved.

As a coldie it feels like I've found a pound coin and lost a tenner

Edited December 1, 2020 by LRD

[Chertseystreamer79]

11 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

@mods - perhaps time to split the thread and have one for cold searching - we had one called the hunt for cold a few years back which seemed to work.

Just feels like a battle in here between those looking for cold and those who just revert to "I told you so" posts.

Yeah good idea....especially with the cold set up looking to last a while

[Met4Cast]

GLOSEA agrees with a blocked pattern out to December 10th, but beyond that the signal switches to a more +NAO/zonal pattern, whereas ECM46 keeps the blocky pattern going until mid month before losing the signal somewhat. 

06z GFS is better than the 00z, but again we've got a distinct lack of any actual cold.

[Duane S.]

Why is it one or two on here, as soon as they have nailed their proverbial colours to their masts, they will not let it go? They can’t be seen to be wrong, God forbid. Watering it down as the charts turn against their ‘predictions’ and jumping on any chart run that slightly backs up their original views. The crazy thing is, nothing has happened, or not, yet anyway! 

It always ends up getting personal and narky on here as a result, so they need to just nip it in the bud and stop trying to prove they were, in some way, ‘right’. It’s all very tiresome.

[nick sussex]

It’s a real mess ! 

How upstream shortwave energy phases with that near the UK has quite an impact .

You’d ideally like no phasing . You can see the problem on the GFS06 hrs run.

Much depends on how the models handle the shortwave which redevelops over the North Sea .

You want that as far east and ne as possible otherwise as that phases it will pivot back nw .

I can understand the sense of underwhelment in the forum but realistically any snowfall was always going to be either transient or reserved for higher elevations . There’s simply not the depth of cold available .

There might be a better chance later if upstream shortwave energy can disrupt more favourably and we don’t get phasing issues .

[Ols500]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

upstream shortwave energy

whats this? thanks.

[Alexis]

28 minutes ago, LRD said:

I know people have said that the Russian High is important for disrupting the vortex. That may well be the case and beyond my knowledge so can't comment. What I can comment on, though, is the 'standard' models and all I can see is that the Russian High is merely preventing cold air filtering down into Europe

Some of the synoptics we have at the moment we'd be facing a pretty snowy spell in many other years. Just can not believe how little cold there is in Europe in December without a Euro High being involved.

As a coldie it feels like I've found a pound coin and lost a tenner

I wouldn't worry too much at this stage. It only takes a a couple of days to let the cold leak downwards once it orientates correctly. You don't necessarily want Europe to go in the freezer because the Russian High often just shunts the cold down towards Greece. Alternatively, a trough over Scandinavia can bring down deep cold but bottle it up over Scandi. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z

Cant complain with this for Friday.

At all.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Iceaxecrampon