Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[desverger2]

8 minutes ago, jason6347 said:

Are we any clearer as to where snow may occur yet Steve ,will it be height based?

The whole or the North East shows settling snow of above 25cm. Incredible really 

 

This down to sea level as well. The sweet spot has 37cm near Newcastle 

Edited December 1, 2020 by desverger2

[desverger2]

13 minutes ago, jason6347 said:

Are we any clearer as to where snow may occur yet Steve ,will it be height based?

I am only joking btw lmao

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, desverger2 said:

The whole or the North East shows settling snow of above 25cm. Incredible really 

 

This down to sea level as well. The sweet spot has 37cm near Newcastle 

What on Earth are you looking at? The GFS 00z is downgrade in snow potential at least further SE the low is less E/SE and it’s less shallow more of a mild sector. 

 

No accumulative snow away from Scotland.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Daniel*

[BlueHedgehog074]

Has been mentioned before, but I think it will all end up being nowcasting with regards to where any snow occurs, but probably also just looking at the short range high resolution models too. And the use of a window. 

Height will certainly help though.

Even standing on top of a stack of papers could make all the difference...

PS: Let’s remember to keep things friendly in here. Thanks 

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z a bit of a flop for us in the NW. But someone is going to get a pasting from this as the LP rotates. S Coast up through to Wilts heads up. 

[Snow lover 2020]

8 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

00z a bit of a flop for us in the NW. But someone is going to get a pasting from this as the LP rotates. S Coast up through to Wilts heads up. 

Omg yes! South coast gets snow from this!!  Finally 

[West is Best]

17 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

00z a bit of a flop for us in the NW. But someone is going to get a pasting from this as the LP rotates. S Coast up through to Wilts heads up. 

Sorry but this is not a 'pasting.' That's rain which may turn to sleet and wet snow at high elevation i.e. above 300 metres for a brief period.

I love snow but the ramping on this cold snap has been entirely out of proportion to what the charts are really showing. And the Met Office happens to agree with me  

[West is Best]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

Not withstanding the excitement at 72 for the bit of snow, the UKMO 144 00z is superb, pushing cold uppers south & the atlantic alligned to continue cold proceedings 

Actually it shows an advancing low mid-Atlantic at T144. And whilst T850's are chilly they are nowhere near the -5C hPa required. A case of only seeing what you wish to see I fear Steve on this occasion.

 

 

 

[mattyj]

11 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Actually it shows an advancing low mid-Atlantic at T144. And whilst T850's are chilly they are nowhere near the -5C hPa required. A case of only seeing what you wish to see I fear Steve on this occasion.

 

 

 

Stop being a spoil sport

 

[terrier]

Some serious cold ramping going on here this morning. The ukmo is showing a chilly feed but cold rain for the majority I feel. The snow line is looking to be some we’re around Durham up into Scotland on Friday but certainly no big snowfall totals away from the highest ground. Yes it’s looking like a chilly spell coming up. But certainly no big snowfall totals as some seem to be ramping up. Unfortunately the cold to the east just isn’t there to tap into. But it is going to feel seasonal for December which has been few and far between these past few years. Just think a few people need to stop ramping this as a snow for all as the charts do not show this at all. Chilly yes but winter wonderland definitely not. 

[carinthian]

35 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

00z a bit of a flop for us in the NW. But someone is going to get a pasting from this as the LP rotates. S Coast up through to Wilts heads up. 

Yes, Friday morning looks best for any snow down to lower levels with lowest dew points forecast in the zone Wiltshire up through the West Midlands. The 528 dam shown on the latest Met Ofiice fax concentrates on this location. Probably the area of highest precipitation rate, so elevated ground in this region at risk of snow cover with possible temporary down to lower level.  Our own snow model over here has picked up this location for Friday morning with the percentage chance increasing further to the NE over the weekend. However, with all snow models still to far out to predict with great accuracy at this stage but gives a general indication now of the most likely area to be affected.  Will keep you updated when the model more accurately assess snowfall amounts in the shorter range. Over here we have some snowfall forecast during the day . Enjoy your hunt for snow this coming week.

C

[Snow lover 2020]

34 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Actually it shows an advancing low mid-Atlantic at T144. And whilst T850's are chilly they are nowhere near the -5C hPa required. A case of only seeing what you wish to see I fear Steve on this occasion.

 

 

 

Wrong it’s showing deep cold mid December 

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Wrong it’s showing deep cold mid December 

That model does even go out far enough to show mid December.

[Snow lover 2020]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

That model does even go out far enough to show mid December.

No other models are if you scroll back a page. From 15th Dec 

[That ECM]

T72 ecm. Good luck making a forecast this far out in this set up. let’s see how it unfolds. Imo some will see falling snow and some will see it settle and snow lover and I will have to look at your photos as it truly would be a surprise event if we were involved.

 

 Alarm set.

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by That ECM

[SMU]

57 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Actually it shows an advancing low mid-Atlantic at T144. And whilst T850's are chilly they are nowhere near the -5C hPa required. A case of only seeing what you wish to see I fear Steve on this occasion.

 

 

 

Have you turned into the mild advocate WIB from like 2008

Great UKMO > NW SE jet axis, Amplifcation upstream.  Meaning nice & cold for the foreseeable future..

Edited December 1, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Banned word replaced.

[mountain shadow]

19 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Some lovely synoptics on show again, at the same time very frustrating that we havent got the cold uppers we need in the right place....for once I hope NW seasonal forecast is wrong and we can see patterns like this crop up again in Jan and Feb. BTW, keep up the good work WIB we need some realism

 

 

Not sure what you're talking about.

Most have alluded to the chance of lowland snow being low but not impossible if marginal situations fall the right way.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment in quote box removed

[West is Best]

There's nothing especially dramatic in the 0z ensembles. The operational is for once close to the mean:

 

 

Notably, the -5C 850 hPa is not touched in the upcoming cold spell. Therefore I continue to temper the understandable enthusiasm for the white stuff.

Edited December 1, 2020 by West is Best

[sheikhy]

Hmmm not sure what to make of snow prospects this morning!!deeper low over the uk at 72 hours and more round!!!

[West is Best]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Have you turned into the mild advocate WIB from like 2008

Great UKMO > NW SE jet axis, Amplifcation upstream.  Meaning nice & cold for the foreseeable future..

No just being realistic Steve. These synoptics are decent but not dramatic. At no point on the latest 0Z GFS ensembles is the -5C 850 hPa touched. I'm afraid there's not going to be a lot of snow out of this, but it will certainly feel cold for two or three days. The UKMO T144 actually shows an advancing mid-Atlantic low, something supported by the latest GFS.

Edited December 1, 2020 by West is Best

[bluearmy]

Irrespective of the wintry mixture across the 3/8 day period ahead, I note a few op runs recently with NH profiles heading through week 2 which show a splitting/screwed up tpv and an arctic high descending towards the Eurasian sector ..... the ec op now at day 10 showing this - yes it’s day 10 and it’s purely observational for the time being ...... btw, that’s an incredible chart for mid dec and whilst it won’t verify, it does provide a snapshot of what is within reach in this period ....

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

Sorry but this is not a 'pasting.' That's rain which may turn to sleet and wet snow at high elevation i.e. above 300 metres for a brief period.

I love snow but the ramping on this cold snap has been entirely out of proportion to what the charts are really showing. And the Met Office happens to agree with me  

Considering the 528 is in evidence for much of the country and that risk - yes a risk - covers up the spine of England right to the N Yorks someone maybe will be in for a "pasting"  Salisbury Plain?  - yes elevation counts obviously.

 

[sheikhy]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

Not withstanding the excitement at 72 for the bit of snow, the UKMO 144 00z is superb, pushing cold uppers south & the atlantic alligned to continue cold proceedings 

Steve you got your crayons out for any potential snow lines from ukmo and ecm?

[Mr Frost]

Morning all 

Happy Meteorological Winter to you all! Great to see everyone getting along! 

UKV snapshots below - lovely stuff for some! 
Wednesday at 22:00

 

 

Friday 03:00

 

06:00

 

09:00

 

Once again just for fun the lying snow depth (mm) chart - out to Friday 09:00.

 

All together now......It’s the most wonderful time of the year....

All the best to you all and I hope some of you at least see some snowfall - higher ground the place to be of course for the big totals! 
Radar/lamp post watching begins tomorrow evening. 

Have a good week! 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Mr Frost

[West is Best]

20 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Considering the 528 is in evidence for much of the country

 

Thickness is only a part of the equation. As you know, snow is often a knife-edge experience in this country and to seal the deal we really need -5C 850 hPa upper temps. We simply don't look likely to have them this time. The added pain is the current North Sea temperature. It's around 12.9C which is warm and 3C above the mean December temperature. The Met Office / BBC are not forecasting widespread snow, but there may well be some wet snowy precipitation on the back edge especially at higher elevation: above 300 metres.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/../../../../graphics/favicon.ico Current Operational SST Anomaly Charts - OSPO

WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV

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The Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is part of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service...

Lowestoft Sea Temperature | December Average | United Kingdom Sea Temperatures

WWW.SEATEMPERATURE.ORG

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Lowestoft, United Kingdom December average sea temperature. Marine / ocean climate data updated daily, surface sea temperatures and...

 

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by West is Best
Added a colourful chart to make my post look prettier