Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon gives 15-20cms of snow widely across england just 3 or 4 days from now!!!surely not

It’s surely v unlikely although you can’t rule out 15 cms locality somewhere ..... though I think intensity and evap cooling will be important 

[SMU]

The ICON run shows the perfect track of the low for the midlands etc where it circulates the channel & lifts up along the North sea coast - all the while retaining an influx of cold air into the heart of the system from the NW ( around -5c ) 

Someones going to get a pasting.

18z is a fair bit south with the system at 66 so chances are the wave will develop further south...

Edited November 30, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And brings a countrywide tonking of epic proportions a day later.

W.T.F moment

seriously things are certainly looking up...

ay!...looking up at the lamp post

i do hope this comes off though.

[MattStoke]

Here’s the actual snow accumulations from the ICON as opposed to the amount of wintry precipitation falling.

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And brings a countrywide tonking of epic proportions a day later.

Not impossible at all. But the position of this dropping low/lows is so important. It needs to be coming down at just the right speed and just the right amount of South! Wouldnt suprise me to see the South East be the jackpot area with the northern most extent Lincolnshire at this rate of change east. Always expected though with these situations 

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

W.T.F moment

seriously things are certainly looking up...

ay!...looking up at the lamp post

i do hope this comes off though.

Funny enough 

[SMU]

Channel low

[northwestsnow]

[I remember Atlantic 252]

definitely colder/more SE

[Scott Ingham]

14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The colder signal is strengthening EPS now showing a maximum of 3C in London on Friday. 
 

As stated cold building in situ. Any snow at night will settle

[Eskimo]

It's worth remembering also that even if there are corrections east, south, west, north in the models, it doesn't necessarily translate to the real world. I've seen systems modelled to give certain areas a dumping but ultimately end up somewhere else. 

The high-res models from wed/thurs will come in handy, then really it's down to radar-watching. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Eskimo

[BlueHedgehog074]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Funny enough 

With the models churning out quite a few marginal wintry events later this week, it’s quite a nice surprise to see that. We could become Snowyhull

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I think @Mr Frost posted this earlier today, but to reiterate, take any models showing snow accumulation with absolute caution:

Quite right Mapantz

one the day we will know and not sooner,it's always going to be a nowcast in these situations regarding snow falling and/or settling,there is a lot of difference in the two.

[sheikhy]

Not much happening with the 18z!!colder for sure!!but not as exciting as the icon!!

[feb1991blizzard]

@bluearmy

Not sure on your analysis of EC46 although you might have better data than me - no low anomaly to the south on these.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@bluearmy

Not sure on your analysis of EC46 although you might have better data than me - no low anomaly to the south on these.

Maybe it’s because those images are from the end of April ??

Edited November 30, 2020 by bluearmy

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@bluearmy

Not sure on your analysis of EC46 although you might have better data than me - no low anomaly to the south on these.

Aren't they from 30th April?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe it’s because those images are from the end of April ??

Holy crap - ive looked at the wrong ones - sorry Nick.

[fromey]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@bluearmy

Not sure on your analysis of EC46 although you might have better data than me - no low anomaly to the south on these.

Check the date, top left hand corner 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Holy crap - ive looked at the wrong ones - sorry Nick.

The real ones are much better mate.

We are in the game for a cold December.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe it’s because those images are from the end of April ??

Thank nope - still swearing

sorry mods but my heart jumped in my throat for a second there

thanks @bluearmy.

[feb1991blizzard]

Week 4 looks a stonker!

 

I thought when i was looking, that the previous images i posted looked well out of kilter with previous runs!

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@bluearmy

Not sure on your analysis of EC46 although you might have better data than me - no low anomaly to the south on these.

30th of April???

[northwestsnow]

Euro low attracting the southern arm of the jetstream..

Moths to a flame....

[danthetan]

37 minutes ago, weirpig said:

few images from the 18z icon. Just for fun  but a quick rundown  of the snow showers  for the end of the week.  Turning from rain to snow  across east of the country   and then turning heavy  as it makes itsway across  west and North   quite a few  could see heavy snow   away from lowland east  anglia  and the south east  which could be rain.

pembrokeshire dangler in full swing there