Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[SMU]

There we go then 50cm for central Scotland-

Surely not lol.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Tim Bland]

Wintry showers for eastern areas to start next week...a definite lowering of uppers on this run! 

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

There we go then 50cm for Inverness.

Surely not lol.

I think that’s the Cairngorm region..

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Cold air aloft upgraded. 00z > 12z increasing snow risk later this week.

 

UKV shows dewpoints rising quickly, and a higher level zero degree isotherm - net result is a bit of sleet and wet snow in to the SE as the front moves South.

[Zak M]

Pinched from Twitter. Tonight's ECM showing a lot of snowfall for N England and Scotland in 4 days time..

Take charts like this with a pinch of salt though. They will always chop and change.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Zak M

[SMU]

It was only the other day ECM / GFS had uk in 0-2c air > now due to slack winds & being the cold side of the jet we are upgraded to -5c

Could be some severe frosts.

[weirpig]

Those pesky ecm snow charts   from that run atleast  brum North  will see white stuff   will be different at 6am 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

UKV shows dewpoints rising quickly, and a higher level zero degree isotherm - net result is a bit of sleet and wet snow in to the SE as the front moves South.

Boo! Hiss!   

 

[northwestsnow]

EC going shortwave crazy at day 8 !!

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Pinched from Twitter. Tonight's ECM showing a lot of snowfall for N England and Scotland..

[Tim Bland]

Looking good for Eastern areas next week...

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC going shortwave crazy at day 8 !!

 

Not liking those blue and purples in between canda and Greenland.. is the purple Monster on the move to its more familiar hunt!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Not liking those blue and purples in between canda and Greenland.. is the purple Monster on the move to its more familiar hunt!

Think Euro low will help prevent pos NAO setting up....

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Anthony Burden said:

After 8 days of cold unsettled weather that will be very difficult to forecast regarding 

where the white stuff will fall.Gem at  216 hrs brings in high pressure to the north and 

the dream scenario of east winds,following the met office forecast.

Not sure if it will be a “beast from the east”, but you never know how these things will develop.
ps Love your poems. Keep ‘em coming

[Zak M]

Day 9/10 ECM - looks to be some height rises near NE America and SW Greenland...

Edited November 30, 2020 by Zak M

[northwestsnow]

EC is good....

Atlantic is amplifying behind the lows... Euro low will encourage exactly that...

[Matt H]

Good ending to the run, certainly no signs of a return to westerlies by day 10.

[Mike Poole]

GFS, ECM and GEM at T240:

GFS the least amplified upstream, both ECM and GEM look more amplified but quite different in detail.  Prefer ECM solution from the positioning of the Euro trough.  Aleutian low, Russian high combo maintained so hopefully pressure put on the strat vortex, but it is spinning fast so will take something to break it down.  

Edited November 30, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is good....

Atlantic is amplifying behind the lows... Euro low will encourage exactly that...

It builds on from 00z only seen Friday but 2-4C maximums on that day rather cold. I actually think this run looks more realistic with colder air developing in situ.

[Allseasons-Si]

Looking at the last four runs from the CFSv2 for Dec and it looks like more of the same as what we are going to see this week with troughs disrupting/dropping down from the N/NW in between the two blocks in the Atlantic and Scandinavia.

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[ICE COLD]

Yep I’ll take the EC run tonight pretty cold and possibly snowy for almost anywhere . Better than the crap we’ve put up for the last few years . 

And the ending is pretty good , high pressure being sucked up to Greenland.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Looking at the last four runs from the CFSv2 for Dec and it looks like more of the same as what we are going to see this week with troughs disrupting/dropping down from the N/NW in between the two blocks in the Atlantic and Scandinavia.

 

Yes, CFS has had that monster Scandi high anomaly for a while now, seems omnipresent on every run.

[Anthony Burden]

ECM 168hrs trying to bring this high pressure to the north of us,then gives up on the idea.

Lets hope it starts to show again.In the mean time cold all the way out to 10 days,will

feel very raw and with some luck white stuff from above.

 

[Skullzrulerz]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS, ECM and GEM at T240:

GFS the least amplified upstream, both ECM and GEM look more amplified but quite different in detail.  Prefer ECM solution from the positioning of the Euro trough.  Aleutian low, Russian high combo maintained so hopefully pressure put on the strat vortex, but it is spinning fast so will take something to break it down.  

As has been the case most of the time you would expect a half way house between the GFS/ECM

I'm keeping my hope's very low at the moment as we have seen the last few years how so promising it is and it falls apart just a day or two

[Mr Frost]

Evening all!

Few snapshots below from the UKV:

04/12 - 00:00 - previously discussed snow/wintry streamers (Scotland) in full effect! Wintry showers also for parts of Northern Ireland, Ireland, England and Wales. 

 

UKMO 04/12 - 13:00

 

UKV 04/12 - 12:00

 

UKMO 05/12 - 13:00

 

UKV 05/12 - 12:00

 

As always and just for fun...lying snow depth (mm) for this run out to 05/12 - 15:00.

 

Hard work this model/chart viewing hobby - especially during the late Autumn/Winter season when you are stuck working from home Monday to Friday! Not so easy when you have an extra tab opened on the laptop/phone to try and keep up to date with this thread/different model runs! 

All the best to you all!